The morning read.

Iran diplomacy is collapsing in real time. The market on whether Iran will withdraw from MOU negotiations by July 31 moved to 16% on $218K of volume — the crowd is pricing a diplomatic breakdown as increasingly unlikely despite headlines screaming the opposite. Tehran Times reports 180 MPs demanding termination of the memorandum and strategic deterrence over the Strait of Hormuz, while The Intercept declares "Another Trump Ceasefire With Iran Crumbles." Yet the money moved hard against withdrawal. This is a classic divergence: news says escalation, money says the talks survive.

Across the Iran chain, the picture is mixed but directionally consistent with de-escalation pricing. The Strait of Hormuz shipping market dropped 12 points to 30%, the Iranian blockade-end market fell 10 points to 43%, and the US-invades-Iran market ticked up just 3 points to 22% on thin volume. The money is saying: diplomatic noise is loud, but the underlying trajectory is toward containment, not confrontation. No single catalyst explains the coordinated move across four Iran-linked markets — the repricing appears to reflect positioning around information outside our 48,779-signal feed.

Elsewhere, UK political succession is repricing fast. The next-Prime-Minister-by-July-21 market spiked 52 points to 95% on just $201 — classic thin-book noise, but the move has real conviction behind it. Someone is positioning ahead of an announcement that hasn't broken publicly yet. In crypto, the Credible public-sale market jumped 16 points to 90% on $121K.

• China’s first recovered booster returns to port as LandSpace aims for first land recovery — NASASpaceflight