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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Russia

The world's largest country by area — a nuclear power and major oil-and-gas exporter.

Coverage of Russia is holding steady : 135 signals on the latest tracked day, up 114% from its three-week baseline of 63, across 11 domains (down from 54 a week ago). That makes it the #1 most-covered of the 337 concerns we track.

What’s changed

7 of the last 7 tracked days ran above the three-week baseline — a sustained move, not a one-day spike.

What the reporting says

Across 2,652 tracked stories from 269 outlets, reporting on Russia most often describes military action (243), public statements (196), meetings or visits (176), sanctions or trade (120), elections (92), disaster (46).

It shows up alongside Ukraine (1321 — meetings or visits ×21, ceasefire or deal ×6, sanctions or trade ×5), European Union (572 — sanctions or trade ×13), Putin (520 — meetings or visits ×18), Germany (472), China (971 — sanctions or trade ×7, meetings or visits ×4), Iran (813 — sanctions or trade ×14, meetings or visits ×2), Trump (727 — meetings or visits ×8, sanctions or trade ×8, ceasefire or deal ×5), Oil (689 — sanctions or trade ×18).

Two steps out: AI (through China, 971 shared stories on the weaker link); United States (through China, 971 shared stories on the weaker link); Hormuz (through Iran, 813 shared stories on the weaker link); Israel (through Iran, 813 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Dec 16, with coverage on 70 separate days — concentrated in Europe Politics.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?” fell 4 points between Aug 12 and Sep 26, from 8% to 4%.

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
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Counts computed from our committed signal record (Aug 12 – Sep 26, 46 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Sep 26, 6:38 PM PT