Diplomacy · curated

Russia–Ukraine war

One event, one record — every framing of this event across news coverage and the crowd’s pricing resolves to this one key, so nothing fragments. Tracked since 2026-05-24; last seen 2026-09-22.

This event publishes a maintained truth record — /api/truth/russia-ukraine-war (also via the get_truth_object MCP tool). Layer clocks are stated per layer there; the “last seen” above is this card’s coverage-and-pricing clock.

Matched mentions in window

2,480

news items matched to this event in the coverage window — the list below is a sample, not the full set.

Crowd questions

54

Distinct framings the crowd is pricing right now — near-duplicate strike/deadline variants collapse into the 6 shown below.

Windows

8

Time windows tracked — most active: June 2027.

When the activity clusters167 tracked mentions by market deadline window — the peak is June 2027.

When the activity clusters
Area	Mentions
May 2027	11
June 2027	90
July 2027	11
August 2027	11
September 2027	11
October 2027	11
November 2027	11
December 2027	11

WHO THIS INVOLVES

putin →russia →trump →ukraine →zelenskyy →donbasrussia-ukraine

In the coverage

A sample of the recent reporting behind this event, with the original source behind every headline.

Yuan hits fresh multi-year peak as PBOC eases curb ahead of Trump-Xi summit · Reuters · 2026-09-22
Ukraine opposes political delistings from EU Russia sanctions, deputy PM says · Latest News From Euronews | Euronews RSS · 2026-09-22
US TV networks suspend White House pool coverage over Trump media ban · The Guardian · 2026-09-22
Trump’s bizarre social media blitz leaves world guessing ahead of UN address · The Guardian · 2026-09-22
Trump’s U.N. Speech Comes at a Time of Tumult · NYT > Top Stories · 2026-09-22
Trump set to press Zelenskyy at UN to agree energy ceasefire with Russia · The Guardian · 2026-09-22
Trump set for whirlwind UN meetings with wars in Iran, Ukraine on agenda · Al-Monitor · 2026-09-22
Trump says he will appoint a new AI adviser, without providing details · Reuters · 2026-09-22
Trump returns to the UN, what will he say? · Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera · 2026-09-22
Trump floats ‘AI Force’ to boost industry · Defense One · 2026-09-22
Textile stocks rally up to 10%: Raymond, Gokaldas Exports & others rebound after Trump tariff-triggered selloff · Economic Times · 2026-09-22
Russians abroad voted eight to one against Putin's party, defying official results · Latest News From Euronews | Euronews RSS · 2026-09-22

What the crowd is asking

Live question framings from public prediction markets — one sensor we cite for where consensus sits, never advice on which way to lean.

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2027? · 1.2 year out

view contract at the venue → · last crowd price 70.5% (2026-09-26)

Putin out as President of Russia by June 30, 2027? · 8 months out

view contract at the venue → · last crowd price 12.5% (2026-09-26)

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2027? · 8 months out

view contract at the venue → · last crowd price 99.95% (2026-05-09)

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? · 3 months out

view contract at the venue → · last crowd price 7.5% (2026-09-26)

Ukraine peace referendum passed before 2027? · 3 months out

view contract at the venue → · last crowd price 2.75% (2026-09-21)

Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? · 3 months out

view contract at the venue → · last crowd price 6.5% (2026-09-23)

Ask the engine All events in motion →

The crowd’s questions are cited as a public consensus sensor; mention counts are our own coverage record. Informational only — not advice. As of 2026-09-26 · live snapshot.