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Signal Bureau What’s happening · what the record shows

Interest Rates

The price of borrowing money; the benchmark rates set by central banks steer economies and asset prices.

Coverage of Interest Rates is holding steady : 50 signals on the latest tracked day, down 7% from its three-week baseline of 54, across 11 domains (down from 37 a week ago). That makes it the #126 most-covered of the 337 concerns we track.

Interest Rates is steady by its own history. Its normal rhythm is about 54 signals a day across 11 domains (46 tracked days). A real move would be a day at 68+ signals — 25% above that baseline, the bar our trend read calls accelerating — or a spread into domains beyond its usual 11. That is the move that would push it up the Wire.

What’s changed

6 of the last 7 tracked days ran above the three-week baseline — a sustained move, not a one-day spike.

What the reporting says

Across 1,781 tracked stories from 175 outlets, reporting on Interest Rates most often describes rate decisions (618), economic releases (76), public statements (44), price levels (27), acquisition (21), meetings or visits (18).

It shows up alongside Inflation (743 — meetings or visits ×2), Federal Reserve (713), Treasury (441), AI (345), Central Bank (268), CPI (237), Housing (219), Crypto (217).

Two steps out: Oil (through Inflation, 743 shared stories on the weaker link); Iran (through Inflation, 590 shared stories on the weaker link); Trump (through Inflation, 428 shared stories on the weaker link); Middle East (through Inflation, 426 shared stories on the weaker link).

Tracked since Apr 14, with coverage on 45 separate days — concentrated in Auto and Macro Economics.

What the crowd is pricing

The odds the crowd puts on “Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?” fell 34 points between Aug 12 and Sep 26, from 68% to 34%.

Coverage momentum and market odds are separate readings — one can move without the other. A price is what the crowd believes, shown as a signal, not a forecast of ours.
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Counts computed from our committed signal record (Aug 12 – Sep 26, 46 tracked days). Informational only — not financial, legal, or investment advice. Prediction-market prices are shown as a signal of what the crowd believes. Terms · Privacy · page rendered Sep 26, 6:40 PM PT