{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"venezuela-crisis","title":"The Venezuela crisis record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"venezuela","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"venezuela\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Venezuela crisis\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity.","candidatesConsidered":["machado","maduro","venezuela"],"alsoDefensible":["machado","maduro"],"rejected":[],"actionClass":null},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-09-26","currency":{"state":"current","asOf":"2026-09-26","basis":{"asOf":"2026-09-26","newestObservationAt":"2026-09-26","newestObservationBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","ageDays":0,"expectedCadenceDays":18,"cadenceBasis":"this record's own observed cadence — 7 active day(s) over a 126-day window","graceMultiple":1,"wallMultiple":3,"blindSources":[],"retiredAt":null,"recordState":"measured"},"sentence":"This record is current: the newest source item is from 2026-09-26, inside its expected cadence of about one item every 18 days."},"generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:26:29.232977+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/venezuela-crisis and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://sigb.ai/api/truth/venezuela-crisis so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"venezuela\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"none-event-relevant","note":"Measured zero after event-relevance filtering: we sampled 4 attributable rows for \"venezuela\" and not one could be shown to be about \"Venezuela crisis\" — each carried the subject's name and nothing else this record is about. They are withheld rather than served: a subject's general coverage is not this event's reporting, and serving it under this record's label would be worse than serving nothing. That is a count, not a gap.","sampledForSubject":4,"served":0,"withheldNotEventRelevant":4,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["curated","caracas","machado","maduro","forces","enter"],"questionSet":["nicol","sentenced","between","years","prison","released","custody","december","election","scheduled","invade","delcy","rodr","guez","leader","mar","corina","end"]},"items":[]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":608,"outlets":223,"activeDays":7,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-09-26","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-05-24","end":"2026-09-26","activeDays":7,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 7 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":288,"outlets":108,"activeDays":30,"since":"2026-04-16","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-09-22","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["energy"],"asserts":{"utterance":32,"sanction-trade":12,"military-action":10,"disaster":7,"meeting-visit":5,"price-threshold":4},"assertionCoverage":0.309,"movesWith":[{"name":"oil","together":154,"sharedDomains":["energy"]},{"name":"trump","together":155,"verbs":{"meeting-visit":2}},{"name":"hormuz","together":66,"sharedDomains":["energy"]},{"name":"saudi arabia","together":56,"sharedDomains":["energy"]},{"name":"iran","together":121},{"name":"united states","together":101},{"name":"china","together":89},{"name":"russia","together":88}],"movesWithLabels":["oil","trump","hormuz","saudi arabia","iran","united states","china","russia"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"insufficient_history","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":6889,"periods":[{"period":"2027","mentions":320},{"period":"2026-12","mentions":256},{"period":"2026-09","mentions":1751},{"period":"2026","mentions":4562}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"observed","rowsNote":null,"current":[{"question":"Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026","source":"Polymarket (us-politics)","probabilityPct":54,"change24hPct":-30.4,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-09-20","deadline":null,"deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Venezuela crisis","slug":"venezuela-crisis","questionCount":21,"questions":["Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?","Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?","Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?","Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?","Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?","Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?"],"mentions":6889,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-09-26","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-09-26","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"venezuela\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Venezuela crisis\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[]},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"none-recorded","note":"Measured zero: the ledger holds no coverage-state transition for \"venezuela\". We do not backfill history we did not record.","transitions":[]}},"sectionOrder":["definition","primaryDocuments","claims","theRecord","ourAttention","marketSensor","refereeGrades","ourRead","changeLog","limits","verify","provenance"],"definition":{"key":"definition","heading":"What this record is","state":"templated-from-structure","whatThisIs":"A topic on our watch list — we track its coverage across 5 domains, including World Wires, US Politics and Microplastics.","whyTracked":"We hold 608 documents from 223 outlets over 7 active days. It runs through 5 coverage domains we watch, including World Wires, US Politics, Microplastics. 21 market questions price outcomes under the event bound to it.","coverageSince":{"date":"2026-05-24","status":"observed","text":"Our first document on this subject is dated May 24, 2026; the count above is everything since."},"notCovered":["Our attention, not the world's state. Every count here is a count of what our own sweep collected about venezuela.","223 outlets in our declared source universe — not the whole internet.","Market prices are the venue's number, cited and graded as an outside sensor. We publish no probability of our own on this record."],"tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"passed":["a claim carried by three or more separate publishers","at least one market question bound to this record"],"failed":["a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself"],"conditions":[{"id":"first-party-read","text":"a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself","passed":false},{"id":"independent-origins","text":"a claim carried by three or more separate publishers","passed":true},{"id":"bound-market-question","text":"at least one market question bound to this record","passed":true}]},"stateNote":"No written definition yet — this line is generated from what we hold, so it cannot claim more than the record does."},"claims":{"key":"claims","heading":"What independent sources agree on","state":"corroborated","source":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these rows","window":{"start":"2026-09-20","end":"2026-09-26"},"counts":{"clustersTotal":1046,"corroborated":3,"published":60,"clustersWithAggregatorOrigin":24,"clustersWithClaimUrl":60,"originsWithReceiptUrl":451,"originsPublished":454,"recordRows":12,"singleSource":9},"publishedTiers":["strong","moderate"],"dropped":11,"note":"12 claims about this subject are on the maintained record for the window Sep 20, 2026 – Sep 26, 2026 — 3 carried by three or more separate publishers, 9 carried by one and labelled single-source. The count is of publishers, not of truth: many outlets echoing one official statement is a wide echo, not a second check.","singleSourceVisible":true,"rows":[{"id":"44104cf8444f","clusterKey":"44104cf8444f","claim":"Africa: Ethiopia, Djibouti Hail Dangote's $660 Million Pipeline As Energy Security Boost","claimUrl":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-24/dangote-ethiopia-to-invest-660-million-in-pipeline-storage","tier":"strong","tierLabel":"Cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Four or more separate publishers carried this. Wire copies and republished copies are collapsed first — but publishers all working from one official statement still count separately, so this is agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":4,"origins":["Bloomberg","africanews.com","allafrica.com","bbc.co.uk"],"wires":["Bloomberg"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-24","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"4 separate publishers · 1 wire (Bloomberg)","marketLine":null},{"id":"0a826f2bc4ce","clusterKey":"0a826f2bc4ce","claim":"Wall Street opens lower as oil, bond yields move up ahead of US-China summit","claimUrl":"https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260922/wall-street-nears-record-as-oil-prices-bond-yields-ease?utm_source=rss","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":3,"origins":["Reuters","koreatimes.co.kr","businesstimes.com.sg"],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-21","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["document","entity"],"originsSummary":"3 separate publishers · 1 wire (Reuters)","marketLine":null},{"id":"b09a102882c9","clusterKey":"b09a102882c9","claim":"France to send military to protect Saudi Arabia on Red Sea oil route, Macron says","claimUrl":"https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/09/france-send-military-protect-saudi-arabia-red-sea-oil-route-macron-says","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":3,"origins":["Reuters","france24.com","twz.com"],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-24","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"3 separate publishers · 1 wire (Reuters)","marketLine":null},{"id":"01b9c60746e6","clusterKey":"01b9c60746e6","claim":"US judge dismisses Michigan climate lawsuit against oil companies","claimUrl":"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Michigan-Judge-Tosses-States-Antitrust-Suit-Against-Big-Oil.html","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["Reuters","oilprice.com"],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-23","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers · 1 wire (Reuters)","marketLine":null},{"id":"10c2523a1b4d","clusterKey":"10c2523a1b4d","claim":"Russia starts exports from Arctic Vostok Oil project in boost to long-term production","claimUrl":"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Begins-Oil-Exports-From-Its-Giant-Vostok-Arctic-Project.html","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["Reuters","oilprice.com"],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-24","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers · 1 wire (Reuters)","marketLine":null},{"id":"22e59c08bbf5","clusterKey":"22e59c08bbf5","claim":"Traders push for discounts for Venezuelan oil as shipping costs soar, sources say","claimUrl":"https://gcaptain.com/traders-push-for-discounts-for-venezuelan-oil-as-shipping-costs-soar/","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["Reuters","gcaptain.com"],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-22","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers · 1 wire (Reuters)","marketLine":null},{"id":"23bf41171cc3","clusterKey":"23bf41171cc3","claim":"Hormuz Workarounds Keep Gulf Oil Flowing—at a Steep Cost","claimUrl":"https://gcaptain.com/hormuz-shuttles-keep-oil-flowing-but-at-a-high-cost/","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["gcaptain.com","oilprice.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-22","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers","marketLine":null},{"id":"381e1b053b87","clusterKey":"381e1b053b87","claim":"Don't end up punishing India: JPMorgan CEO asks US to rethink Russian oil tariffs","claimUrl":"https://cryptobriefing.com/jpmorgan-dimon-india-russian-oil-tariffs/","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["cryptobriefing.com","indiatoday.in"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-22","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers","marketLine":null},{"id":"3e6d3fa1295b","clusterKey":"3e6d3fa1295b","claim":"Saudi Arabia sells nearly 100 million barrels of oil to Asia, easing looming supply crunch","claimUrl":"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/energy-commodities/saudi-arabia-sells-nearly-100-million-barrels-oil-asia-easing-looming-supply-crunch","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["businesstimes.com.sg","oilprice.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-24","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers","marketLine":null},{"id":"5d1039e39551","clusterKey":"5d1039e39551","claim":"ICE agent shoots and wounds Venezuelan man at traffic stop in Austin, Texas","claimUrl":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3y0z25v0zjwo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["bbc.co.uk","theguardian.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-21","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers","marketLine":null},{"id":"a4f4251496ed","clusterKey":"a4f4251496ed","claim":"Saudi Arabia Denies Buying 25 Oil Tankers After Iraq Blames Purchases For Higher Costs","claimUrl":"https://www.marineinsight.com/saudi-arabia-denies-buying-25-oil-tankers-after-iraq-blames-purchases-for-higher-costs/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=saudi-arabia-denies-buying-25-oil-tankers-after-iraq-blames-purchases-for-higher-costs","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["Reuters","marineinsight.com"],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-23","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers · 1 wire (Reuters)","marketLine":null},{"id":"e34db0939212","clusterKey":"e34db0939212","claim":"Jaishankar flags India's concerns to Rubio over US sanctions on Russian oil buyers","claimUrl":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/New-US-Sanctions-Law-Threatens-Indias-Huge-Russian-Oil-Trade.html","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["indiatoday.in","oilprice.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-21","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers","marketLine":null}]},"primaryDocuments":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[],"key":"primaryDocuments","heading":"What the issuing authorities publish","undatedCount":0,"undatedNote":null},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","heading":"What prediction markets price","state":"priced","joinPerformed":true,"eventSlug":"venezuela-crisis","counts":{"eventReceipts":6,"entityCaptures":1,"served":7,"live":4,"expired":3},"newestPriceStamp":"2026-09-26","venueStatusNote":null,"note":"7 market questions ride this record, newest price stamp Sep 26, 2026 — 4 still open by their own deadline, 3 past it and kept as recorded. A price is the venue's number, cited as one outside sensor and graded against how reality resolved; it is never a probability of ours.","rows":[{"question":"Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-nicols-maduro-be-sentenced-to-between-20-and-40-years-in-prison","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":1.4,"pricedAt":"2026-09-26","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-12-31","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/nicols-maduro-released-from-custody-by-december-31-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":5.5,"pricedAt":"2026-09-26","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-01-31","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/venezuela-election-scheduled-by-december-31-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":14.5,"pricedAt":"2026-09-25","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-03-31","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-by-december-31-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":2.7,"pricedAt":"2026-09-26","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-03-31","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/delcy-rodrguez-out-as-leader-of-venezuela-by-december-31-2026-148-853","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":11,"pricedAt":"2026-09-24","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-01-01","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-mara-corina-machado-be-the-leader-of-venezuela-end-of-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.05,"pricedAt":"2026-09-26","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-01-01","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/venezuela-leader-end-of-2026","source":"Polymarket (us-politics)","probabilityPct":54,"change24hPct":-30.4,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-09-20","deadline":null,"deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact","venueStatus":null,"origin":"entity-capture"}],"basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred"},"refereeGrades":{"key":"refereeGrades","heading":"How our cited sensor has scored","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the per-subject accuracy check","grades":[],"note":"We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Venezuela crisis has been scored, so this section can say nothing about it on its own. The scoring anyone can read is at https://sigb.ai/api/calibration-data.","where":"https://sigb.ai/api/calibration-data"},"theRecord":{"label":"The record itself","basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 7 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"],"state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":608,"outlets":223,"activeDays":7,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-09-26","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-05-24","end":"2026-09-26","activeDays":7,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 7 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":288,"outlets":108,"activeDays":30,"since":"2026-04-16","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-09-22","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["energy"],"asserts":{"utterance":32,"sanction-trade":12,"military-action":10,"disaster":7,"meeting-visit":5,"price-threshold":4},"assertionCoverage":0.309,"movesWith":[{"name":"oil","together":154,"sharedDomains":["energy"]},{"name":"trump","together":155,"verbs":{"meeting-visit":2}},{"name":"hormuz","together":66,"sharedDomains":["energy"]},{"name":"saudi arabia","together":56,"sharedDomains":["energy"]},{"name":"iran","together":121},{"name":"united states","together":101},{"name":"china","together":89},{"name":"russia","together":88}],"movesWithLabels":["oil","trump","hormuz","saudi arabia","iran","united states","china","russia"],"provenance":"curated","key":"theRecord","heading":"What we have collected","status":"measured","basisNote":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting"},"ourAttention":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"insufficient_history","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":6889,"periods":[{"period":"2027","mentions":320},{"period":"2026-12","mentions":256},{"period":"2026-09","mentions":1751},{"period":"2026","mentions":4562}],"key":"ourAttention","heading":"How closely we are watching","state":"cannot-measure","directionWord":"insufficient_history","glyph":""},"ourRead":{"key":"ourRead","heading":"Our read","basisNote":"our analysis of this record's own dated sections; ours, and labeled ours — never a forecast, and never a probability of ours","asOf":"2026-09-26","firstParty":{"state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so this record carries no document from an issuing authority. That is unmeasured, not a clean bill."},"corroboratedNow":{"state":"measured","count":12,"text":"Independent sources agree on 12 things about Venezuela crisis in the current window: “Africa: Ethiopia, Djibouti Hail Dangote's $660 Million Pipeline As Energy Security Boost” (4 separate publishers · 1 wire (Bloomberg), earliest Sep 24, 2026); “Wall Street opens lower as oil, bond yields move up ahead of US-China summit” (3 separate publishers · 1 wire (Reuters), earliest Sep 21, 2026), and 10 more on the record."},"singleSource":{"state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds no recorded change for Venezuela crisis. We do not backfill history we did not record."},"divergence":{"state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?” at 0.05% (polymarket, Sep 26, 2026), while our own record holds 12 claims carried by three or more separate publishers. The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},"heldAsProvenance":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."},"inputsDropped":[{"input":"10 corroborated claim rows","why":"shown on the claims section rather than repeated in the read"},{"input":"single-source reporting","why":"no press-claims ledger exists for this subject; the corroborated feed does not publish uncleared tiers"},{"input":"3 market questions past their deadline","why":"kept as historical capture, never presented as current expectation"}],"synthesis":null,"synthesisNote":"No synthesis is written for this record. A synthesis is our own paragraph over corroborated claims with receipts; until it is computed, the clauses above are the whole read and nothing is templated to look like one.","basis":[{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Africa: Ethiopia, Djibouti Hail Dangote's $660 Million Pipeline As Energy Security Boost","asOf":"2026-09-24"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Wall Street opens lower as oil, bond yields move up ahead of US-China summit","asOf":"2026-09-21"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"France to send military to protect Saudi Arabia on Red Sea oil route, Macron says","asOf":"2026-09-24"},{"kind":"market sensor","text":"Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? — 0.05% (polymarket)","asOf":"2026-09-26"}],"clauses":[{"key":"firstParty","label":"What the issuing authorities say","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so this record carries no document from an issuing authority. That is unmeasured, not a clean bill."},{"key":"corroboratedNow","label":"What independent sources agree on","state":"measured","count":12,"text":"Independent sources agree on 12 things about Venezuela crisis in the current window: “Africa: Ethiopia, Djibouti Hail Dangote's $660 Million Pipeline As Energy Security Boost” (4 separate publishers · 1 wire (Bloomberg), earliest Sep 24, 2026); “Wall Street opens lower as oil, bond yields move up ahead of US-China summit” (3 separate publishers · 1 wire (Reuters), earliest Sep 21, 2026), and 10 more on the record."},{"key":"singleSource","label":"What rests on one source","state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},{"key":"contradicted","label":"What contradicts","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},{"key":"changedSinceLastRead","label":"What changed","state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds no recorded change for Venezuela crisis. We do not backfill history we did not record."},{"key":"divergence","label":"The outside sensor, beside our record","state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?” at 0.05% (polymarket, Sep 26, 2026), while our own record holds 12 claims carried by three or more separate publishers. The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},{"key":"heldAsProvenance","label":"Held as provenance","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"states":{"firstParty":"cannot-measure","corroboratedNow":"measured","singleSource":"cannot-measure","contradicted":"cannot-measure","changedSinceLastRead":"measured","divergence":"measured","heldAsProvenance":"cannot-measure"}},"changeLog":{"key":"changeLog","heading":"What changed, and when","state":"none-recorded","started":null,"note":"The ledger holds no recorded change for Venezuela crisis. We do not backfill history we did not record.","transitions":[]},"verify":{"key":"verify","heading":"Verify it yourself","state":"measured","rest":"curl -s https://sigb.ai/api/truth/venezuela-crisis","mcp":"curl -s https://sigb.ai/api/mcp -X POST -H 'content-type: application/json' \\\n  -d '{\"jsonrpc\":\"2.0\",\"id\":1,\"method\":\"tools/call\",\"params\":{\"name\":\"get_truth_object\",\"arguments\":{\"topic\":\"venezuela-crisis\"}}}'","resource":null,"page":null,"note":"This page, GET /api/truth/venezuela-crisis and the get_truth_object tool are assembled by one builder, so what you fetch is what you are reading."},"limits":{"key":"limits","heading":"What this record does not tell you","state":"measured","derived":[{"section":"refereeGrades","text":"How our cited sensor has scored: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the per-subject accuracy check. We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Venezuela crisis has b"},{"section":"ourAttention","text":"How closely we are watching: we could not measure it."},{"section":"ourRead.firstParty","text":"What the issuing authorities say: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the first-party read. No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so this record carries no document from an issuing authority. That is unmeasured, not a clean bill."},{"section":"ourRead.singleSource","text":"What rests on one source: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the single-source tier. We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},{"section":"ourRead.contradicted","text":"What contradicts: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is no polarity-comparable pair. We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},{"section":"ourRead.heldAsProvenance","text":"Held as provenance: we could not measure it. No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"standing":[],"note":"6 sections on this record came back \"we could not look\". Each is named below with the pass that failed, generated from the section's own state rather than typed here."},"provenance":{"key":"provenance","heading":"Where this record comes from","state":"measured","asOf":"2026-09-26","generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:26:29.232977+00:00","recordVersion":"sb.tr-2c2b01df","releaseId":null,"builtAt":null,"releaseState":"cannot-measure","releaseNote":"the release manifest is a deploy-time asset (/release.json), stamped on the served response, never bundled into the record at build time","slaRow":null,"slaNote":"No freshness clock is registered for this record's own inputs yet; the sections above each carry the date they speak for."},"record":{"schema":"sb.truth-record.v1","slug":"venezuela-crisis","kind":"event","subjectState":"active","tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"computed":"standard","served":"standard","passed":["at least 3 independent publishers on a joined claim","no unresolved contradiction on the record","at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read"],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"tierChangedAt":"2026-09-07","previousTier":"standard","subject":{"label":"Venezuela crisis","aliases":["caracas","machado","maduro","oil","us forces enter venezuela","venezuela","venezuela crisis","venezuela-crisis","venezuelan"],"eventKey":"venezuela-crisis","entityKeys":["machado","maduro","oil","venezuela","venezuela crisis","venezuela-crisis"],"mergedSlugs":[],"eventSlugs":["venezuela-crisis"]},"definition":{"whatThisIs":"Venezuela crisis is an event Signal Bureau maintains a record of (curated event). The record joins 608 document(s) from 223 outlet(s) in the corpus.","whyTracked":"Registered in the publication registry, which is deny-by-default: a subject is served only once it is registered.","coverageSince":"2026-05-24","coverageSinceBasis":"first counted document (event-graph)","coverageSinceState":"measured","coverageSinceReason":null,"coverageSinceAlternates":[{"date":"2026-07-16","basis":"registered in the publication registry"}],"notCovered":["No probability of ours: this record reports what sources and markets say, and grades them. It does not forecast.","No primary-source layer is registered for this subject, so no first-party document is read for it.","The calibration referee has graded nothing on this subject, so no accuracy record is shown."],"tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"computed":"standard","served":"standard","passed":["at least 3 independent publishers on a joined claim","no unresolved contradiction on the record","at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read"],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"state":"templated-from-structure","reason":""},"claims":[{"clusterKey":"44104cf8444f","claim":"Africa: Ethiopia, Djibouti Hail Dangote's $660 Million Pipeline As Energy Security Boost","claimUrl":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-24/dangote-ethiopia-to-invest-660-million-in-pipeline-storage","tier":{"id":"strong","label":"Cross-source agreement","meaning":"Four or more separate publishers carried this. Wire copies and republished copies are collapsed first — but publishers all working from one official statement still count separately, so this is agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":0,"countRule":"4 or more publishers"},"independentOrigins":4,"independentCount":4,"independenceBasis":"4 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"Bloomberg","wire":true},{"origin":"africanews.com","wire":false},{"origin":"allafrica.com","wire":false},{"origin":"bbc.co.uk","wire":false}],"wires":["Bloomberg"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-24","receipts":[{"origin":"Bloomberg","url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-24/dangote-ethiopia-to-invest-660-million-in-pipeline-storage","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":true,"redirect":false},{"origin":"africanews.com","url":"http://www.africanews.com/2026/09/25/ethiopia-djibouti-and-dangote-to-build-660m-petroleum-pipeline/","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"allafrica.com","url":"https://allafrica.com/stories/202609250008.html","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"bbc.co.uk","url":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6z9z7lv41wgo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"Bloomberg","url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-24/dangote-ethiopia-to-invest-660-million-in-pipeline-storage","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":true,"redirect":false},{"origin":"africanews.com","url":"http://www.africanews.com/2026/09/25/ethiopia-djibouti-and-dangote-to-build-660m-petroleum-pipeline/","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"allafrica.com","url":"https://allafrica.com/stories/202609250008.html","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"bbc.co.uk","url":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6z9z7lv41wgo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":4,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["oil"],"state":"corroborated"},{"clusterKey":"0a826f2bc4ce","claim":"Wall Street opens lower as oil, bond yields move up ahead of US-China summit","claimUrl":"https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260922/wall-street-nears-record-as-oil-prices-bond-yields-ease?utm_source=rss","tier":{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","meaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":1,"countRule":"2 or 3 publishers"},"independentOrigins":3,"independentCount":3,"independenceBasis":"3 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"Reuters","wire":true},{"origin":"koreatimes.co.kr","wire":false},{"origin":"businesstimes.com.sg","wire":false}],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-21","receipts":[{"origin":"Reuters","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxQeEU4dTJoZV9XeFR4cENDYXhRMG1Tb3E4aHFNc1RoUEpHeVJNYmtnS1RHb0lVdzg5S1BKelZiUkR4eER2bkFZc0tjcWxlRFEyODRlVlRoNlNmblFabUhsZnJwTllqbmd2RUQ5NmI0M0JVc3B3aVkwcmt0SE9vTERyLVhFRzIybV9OMU94QlF6UGdORGhJZldzTUJ6X1F2TjhTRVpLNDZWeVN6WU1hR0ZLRw?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-23","wire":true,"redirect":true},{"origin":"koreatimes.co.kr","url":"https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260922/wall-street-nears-record-as-oil-prices-bond-yields-ease?utm_source=rss","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"businesstimes.com.sg","url":"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/capital-markets-currencies/wall-street-opens-lower-oil-bond-yields-move-ahead-us-china-summit","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"Reuters","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxQeEU4dTJoZV9XeFR4cENDYXhRMG1Tb3E4aHFNc1RoUEpHeVJNYmtnS1RHb0lVdzg5S1BKelZiUkR4eER2bkFZc0tjcWxlRFEyODRlVlRoNlNmblFabUhsZnJwTllqbmd2RUQ5NmI0M0JVc3B3aVkwcmt0SE9vTERyLVhFRzIybV9OMU94QlF6UGdORGhJZldzTUJ6X1F2TjhTRVpLNDZWeVN6WU1hR0ZLRw?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-23","wire":true,"redirect":true},{"origin":"koreatimes.co.kr","url":"https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260922/wall-street-nears-record-as-oil-prices-bond-yields-ease?utm_source=rss","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"businesstimes.com.sg","url":"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/capital-markets-currencies/wall-street-opens-lower-oil-bond-yields-move-ahead-us-china-summit","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":3,"subjectDocuments":[{"t":"Wall Street nears record as oil prices, bond yields ease","src":"Korea Times","u":"https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260922/wall-street-nears-record-as-oil-prices-bond-yields-ease?utm_source=rss","pd":"2026-09-21"}],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["document","entity"],"matchedKeys":["oil"],"state":"corroborated"},{"clusterKey":"b09a102882c9","claim":"France to send military to protect Saudi Arabia on Red Sea oil route, Macron says","claimUrl":"https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/09/france-send-military-protect-saudi-arabia-red-sea-oil-route-macron-says","tier":{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","meaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":1,"countRule":"2 or 3 publishers"},"independentOrigins":3,"independentCount":3,"independenceBasis":"3 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"Reuters","wire":true},{"origin":"france24.com","wire":false},{"origin":"twz.com","wire":false}],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-24","receipts":[{"origin":"Reuters","url":"https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/09/france-send-military-protect-saudi-arabia-red-sea-oil-route-macron-says","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":true,"redirect":false},{"origin":"france24.com","url":"https://www.france24.com/en/macron-says-military-resources-to-be-sent-to-saudi-arabia","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"twz.com","url":"https://www.twz.com/news-features/france-sending-forces-to-help-defend-saudi-arabias-red-sea-oil-facilities","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"Reuters","url":"https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/09/france-send-military-protect-saudi-arabia-red-sea-oil-route-macron-says","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":true,"redirect":false},{"origin":"france24.com","url":"https://www.france24.com/en/macron-says-military-resources-to-be-sent-to-saudi-arabia","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"twz.com","url":"https://www.twz.com/news-features/france-sending-forces-to-help-defend-saudi-arabias-red-sea-oil-facilities","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":3,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["oil"],"state":"corroborated"},{"clusterKey":"01b9c60746e6","claim":"US judge dismisses Michigan climate lawsuit against oil companies","claimUrl":"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Michigan-Judge-Tosses-States-Antitrust-Suit-Against-Big-Oil.html","tier":{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","meaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":1,"countRule":"2 or 3 publishers"},"independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"independenceBasis":"2 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"Reuters","wire":true},{"origin":"oilprice.com","wire":false}],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-23","receipts":[{"origin":"Reuters","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiugFBVV95cUxQdkZ5eXYtMDNUYjFadlJmZlltWmlrSVRwLVlqT2tLSFlNUF9iTWtzcVVLX3MwY1AzbWg0SVVxQXg2dDVTeFV1QmFyRE85WkltWUJ0ejQ2Q1RydkFjTEJmUmlZc0NwTkc0OEdrMWM4eURCNXVMWEhUdjhWYVZFclF1UDFvUTIybl9OaTlvQW82TlRFVi1PSGdWV1lUX0ZFLXdVS0NyejRjaVVxTmxtT0I4RDJ1ajR3ZzZSbUE?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":true,"redirect":true},{"origin":"oilprice.com","url":"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Michigan-Judge-Tosses-States-Antitrust-Suit-Against-Big-Oil.html","publishedAt":"2026-09-23","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"Reuters","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiugFBVV95cUxQdkZ5eXYtMDNUYjFadlJmZlltWmlrSVRwLVlqT2tLSFlNUF9iTWtzcVVLX3MwY1AzbWg0SVVxQXg2dDVTeFV1QmFyRE85WkltWUJ0ejQ2Q1RydkFjTEJmUmlZc0NwTkc0OEdrMWM4eURCNXVMWEhUdjhWYVZFclF1UDFvUTIybl9OaTlvQW82TlRFVi1PSGdWV1lUX0ZFLXdVS0NyejRjaVVxTmxtT0I4RDJ1ajR3ZzZSbUE?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":true,"redirect":true},{"origin":"oilprice.com","url":"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Michigan-Judge-Tosses-States-Antitrust-Suit-Against-Big-Oil.html","publishedAt":"2026-09-23","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":2,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["oil"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"10c2523a1b4d","claim":"Russia starts exports from Arctic Vostok Oil project in boost to long-term production","claimUrl":"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Begins-Oil-Exports-From-Its-Giant-Vostok-Arctic-Project.html","tier":{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","meaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":1,"countRule":"2 or 3 publishers"},"independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"independenceBasis":"2 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"Reuters","wire":true},{"origin":"oilprice.com","wire":false}],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-24","receipts":[{"origin":"Reuters","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxOWXA0X3pNQTJnQUo0Ti1PQnlsbW9tNy1BY19Qek1XS0JmQ2tjT0hpYXE0UmlKYy1sN1FXdm5VTGYwQzh5WF8yOFY5OE1fMUlBT1llVlRGc1pEOThuT3pLRFhTNmVYa3IzLV9oMDcwYm42UjZWVXpOZGFsN3pUNGVTeGZwb2c1ZHktNG9tNXA2aExoazFLXy1wZl9fZnVsSTVtWXVwU2U0dWl3TjNEbC1iT0ZlSTF0YzRWa205ZnBTX2g0UU5P?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":true,"redirect":true},{"origin":"oilprice.com","url":"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Begins-Oil-Exports-From-Its-Giant-Vostok-Arctic-Project.html","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"Reuters","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxOWXA0X3pNQTJnQUo0Ti1PQnlsbW9tNy1BY19Qek1XS0JmQ2tjT0hpYXE0UmlKYy1sN1FXdm5VTGYwQzh5WF8yOFY5OE1fMUlBT1llVlRGc1pEOThuT3pLRFhTNmVYa3IzLV9oMDcwYm42UjZWVXpOZGFsN3pUNGVTeGZwb2c1ZHktNG9tNXA2aExoazFLXy1wZl9fZnVsSTVtWXVwU2U0dWl3TjNEbC1iT0ZlSTF0YzRWa205ZnBTX2g0UU5P?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":true,"redirect":true},{"origin":"oilprice.com","url":"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Begins-Oil-Exports-From-Its-Giant-Vostok-Arctic-Project.html","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":2,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["oil"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"22e59c08bbf5","claim":"Traders push for discounts for Venezuelan oil as shipping costs soar, sources say","claimUrl":"https://gcaptain.com/traders-push-for-discounts-for-venezuelan-oil-as-shipping-costs-soar/","tier":{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","meaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":1,"countRule":"2 or 3 publishers"},"independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"independenceBasis":"2 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"Reuters","wire":true},{"origin":"gcaptain.com","wire":false}],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-22","receipts":[{"origin":"Reuters","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxQOVVMaFBzbF9UZE5pd2VoZlZnclpPTjU3SVRDTkFzSjFOWk04VzREVjRnSlFCZTBJV1g0SXRMT3hJeFRwVjNwM2JuLTBVOHJZcndDZTc0bEt6NFlweElqQ3oyWGFtTzBUVDE1dEV4NFE5UnVDbV9IelEzU2dHNzhSQ3lKbVVBNW1pMTdSbTFqV0RCOXd6Z3FfU2NBMU1tUWZPOXItX3d5Z1RQZnRlU3VzLXVveFN2LThhSjdxaXp3?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-22","wire":true,"redirect":true},{"origin":"gcaptain.com","url":"https://gcaptain.com/traders-push-for-discounts-for-venezuelan-oil-as-shipping-costs-soar/","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"Reuters","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxQOVVMaFBzbF9UZE5pd2VoZlZnclpPTjU3SVRDTkFzSjFOWk04VzREVjRnSlFCZTBJV1g0SXRMT3hJeFRwVjNwM2JuLTBVOHJZcndDZTc0bEt6NFlweElqQ3oyWGFtTzBUVDE1dEV4NFE5UnVDbV9IelEzU2dHNzhSQ3lKbVVBNW1pMTdSbTFqV0RCOXd6Z3FfU2NBMU1tUWZPOXItX3d5Z1RQZnRlU3VzLXVveFN2LThhSjdxaXp3?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-22","wire":true,"redirect":true},{"origin":"gcaptain.com","url":"https://gcaptain.com/traders-push-for-discounts-for-venezuelan-oil-as-shipping-costs-soar/","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":2,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["oil","venezuela"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"23bf41171cc3","claim":"Hormuz Workarounds Keep Gulf Oil Flowing—at a Steep Cost","claimUrl":"https://gcaptain.com/hormuz-shuttles-keep-oil-flowing-but-at-a-high-cost/","tier":{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","meaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":1,"countRule":"2 or 3 publishers"},"independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"independenceBasis":"2 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"gcaptain.com","wire":false},{"origin":"oilprice.com","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-22","receipts":[{"origin":"gcaptain.com","url":"https://gcaptain.com/hormuz-shuttles-keep-oil-flowing-but-at-a-high-cost/","publishedAt":"2026-09-22","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"oilprice.com","url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Hormuz-Workarounds-Keep-Gulf-Oil-Flowingat-a-Steep-Cost.html","publishedAt":"2026-09-23","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"gcaptain.com","url":"https://gcaptain.com/hormuz-shuttles-keep-oil-flowing-but-at-a-high-cost/","publishedAt":"2026-09-22","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"oilprice.com","url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Hormuz-Workarounds-Keep-Gulf-Oil-Flowingat-a-Steep-Cost.html","publishedAt":"2026-09-23","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":2,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["oil"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"381e1b053b87","claim":"Don't end up punishing India: JPMorgan CEO asks US to rethink Russian oil tariffs","claimUrl":"https://cryptobriefing.com/jpmorgan-dimon-india-russian-oil-tariffs/","tier":{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","meaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":1,"countRule":"2 or 3 publishers"},"independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"independenceBasis":"2 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"cryptobriefing.com","wire":false},{"origin":"indiatoday.in","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-22","receipts":[{"origin":"cryptobriefing.com","url":"https://cryptobriefing.com/jpmorgan-dimon-india-russian-oil-tariffs/","publishedAt":"2026-09-22","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"indiatoday.in","url":"https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-asks-us-to-rethink-russian-oil-tariffs-india-says-dont-end-up-punishing-3000468-2026-09-22?utm_source=rss","publishedAt":"2026-09-22","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"cryptobriefing.com","url":"https://cryptobriefing.com/jpmorgan-dimon-india-russian-oil-tariffs/","publishedAt":"2026-09-22","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"indiatoday.in","url":"https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-asks-us-to-rethink-russian-oil-tariffs-india-says-dont-end-up-punishing-3000468-2026-09-22?utm_source=rss","publishedAt":"2026-09-22","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":2,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["oil"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"3e6d3fa1295b","claim":"Saudi Arabia sells nearly 100 million barrels of oil to Asia, easing looming supply crunch","claimUrl":"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/energy-commodities/saudi-arabia-sells-nearly-100-million-barrels-oil-asia-easing-looming-supply-crunch","tier":{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","meaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":1,"countRule":"2 or 3 publishers"},"independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"independenceBasis":"2 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"businesstimes.com.sg","wire":false},{"origin":"oilprice.com","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-24","receipts":[{"origin":"businesstimes.com.sg","url":"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/energy-commodities/saudi-arabia-sells-nearly-100-million-barrels-oil-asia-easing-looming-supply-crunch","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"oilprice.com","url":"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Arabia-Sells-100-Million-Barrels-of-Crude-to-Asia-via-Hormuz.html","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"businesstimes.com.sg","url":"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/energy-commodities/saudi-arabia-sells-nearly-100-million-barrels-oil-asia-easing-looming-supply-crunch","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"oilprice.com","url":"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Arabia-Sells-100-Million-Barrels-of-Crude-to-Asia-via-Hormuz.html","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":2,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["oil"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"5d1039e39551","claim":"ICE agent shoots and wounds Venezuelan man at traffic stop in Austin, Texas","claimUrl":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3y0z25v0zjwo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss","tier":{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","meaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":1,"countRule":"2 or 3 publishers"},"independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"independenceBasis":"2 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"bbc.co.uk","wire":false},{"origin":"theguardian.com","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-21","receipts":[{"origin":"bbc.co.uk","url":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3y0z25v0zjwo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"theguardian.com","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/20/man-shot-ice-agent-austin-texas","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"bbc.co.uk","url":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3y0z25v0zjwo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"theguardian.com","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/20/man-shot-ice-agent-austin-texas","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":2,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["venezuela"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"a4f4251496ed","claim":"Saudi Arabia Denies Buying 25 Oil Tankers After Iraq Blames Purchases For Higher Costs","claimUrl":"https://www.marineinsight.com/saudi-arabia-denies-buying-25-oil-tankers-after-iraq-blames-purchases-for-higher-costs/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=saudi-arabia-denies-buying-25-oil-tankers-after-iraq-blames-purchases-for-higher-costs","tier":{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","meaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":1,"countRule":"2 or 3 publishers"},"independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"independenceBasis":"2 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"Reuters","wire":true},{"origin":"marineinsight.com","wire":false}],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-23","receipts":[{"origin":"Reuters","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixgFBVV95cUxNWUNHdHYwOEhlYi1ORzFuRTAzWkhwamp0OHBxR0FPRjB6d2M0YVNUUFlIY2xfcU52MzI3X0hGRmlwcENtVWVhWkJ4d1NMTzFTc0V5bUlnZmZTNnIta29qWURucFJaeXBoUjJfRnIyekN1WjJ1X3B6Z2JqREltNXZ3R2pNYVBKWTB3WjE1c3hiRXFMVXdhNGhqRnRZWFRRZEtsRldVRGtuWWh5RmdDcFM2SE1MemYtOUlTUEotZV95dUJybEExb1E?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-23","wire":true,"redirect":true},{"origin":"marineinsight.com","url":"https://www.marineinsight.com/saudi-arabia-denies-buying-25-oil-tankers-after-iraq-blames-purchases-for-higher-costs/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=saudi-arabia-denies-buying-25-oil-tankers-after-iraq-blames-purchases-for-higher-costs","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"Reuters","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixgFBVV95cUxNWUNHdHYwOEhlYi1ORzFuRTAzWkhwamp0OHBxR0FPRjB6d2M0YVNUUFlIY2xfcU52MzI3X0hGRmlwcENtVWVhWkJ4d1NMTzFTc0V5bUlnZmZTNnIta29qWURucFJaeXBoUjJfRnIyekN1WjJ1X3B6Z2JqREltNXZ3R2pNYVBKWTB3WjE1c3hiRXFMVXdhNGhqRnRZWFRRZEtsRldVRGtuWWh5RmdDcFM2SE1MemYtOUlTUEotZV95dUJybEExb1E?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-23","wire":true,"redirect":true},{"origin":"marineinsight.com","url":"https://www.marineinsight.com/saudi-arabia-denies-buying-25-oil-tankers-after-iraq-blames-purchases-for-higher-costs/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=saudi-arabia-denies-buying-25-oil-tankers-after-iraq-blames-purchases-for-higher-costs","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":2,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["oil"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"e34db0939212","claim":"Jaishankar flags India's concerns to Rubio over US sanctions on Russian oil buyers","claimUrl":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/New-US-Sanctions-Law-Threatens-Indias-Huge-Russian-Oil-Trade.html","tier":{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","meaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":1,"countRule":"2 or 3 publishers"},"independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"independenceBasis":"2 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"indiatoday.in","wire":false},{"origin":"oilprice.com","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-21","receipts":[{"origin":"indiatoday.in","url":"https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/jaishankar-flags-india-interests-and-concerns-to-rubio-over-us-sanctions-on-russian-oil-buyers-3001500-2026-09-23?utm_source=rss","publishedAt":"2026-09-23","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"oilprice.com","url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/New-US-Sanctions-Law-Threatens-Indias-Huge-Russian-Oil-Trade.html","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"indiatoday.in","url":"https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/jaishankar-flags-india-interests-and-concerns-to-rubio-over-us-sanctions-on-russian-oil-buyers-3001500-2026-09-23?utm_source=rss","publishedAt":"2026-09-23","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"oilprice.com","url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/New-US-Sanctions-Law-Threatens-Indias-Huge-Russian-Oil-Trade.html","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":2,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["oil"],"state":"single-source"}],"primaryDocuments":[],"marketSensor":{"state":"priced","reason":"","questions":[{"question":"Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-by-december-31-2026","pricePct":2.7,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-26","endDate":"2026-03-31","venueStatus":"live","boundVia":"event:venezuela-crisis"},{"question":"Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-nicols-maduro-be-sentenced-to-between-20-and-40-years-in-prison","pricePct":1.4,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-26","endDate":"2027-12-31","venueStatus":"live","boundVia":"event:venezuela-crisis"},{"question":"Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-mara-corina-machado-be-the-leader-of-venezuela-end-of-2026","pricePct":0.05,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-26","endDate":"2027-01-01","venueStatus":"live","boundVia":"event:venezuela-crisis"},{"question":"Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/nicols-maduro-released-from-custody-by-december-31-2026","pricePct":5.5,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-26","endDate":"2026-01-31","venueStatus":"live","boundVia":"event:venezuela-crisis"},{"question":"Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/venezuela-election-scheduled-by-december-31-2026","pricePct":14.5,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-25","endDate":"2026-03-31","venueStatus":"live","boundVia":"event:venezuela-crisis"},{"question":"Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/delcy-rodrguez-out-as-leader-of-venezuela-by-december-31-2026-148-853","pricePct":11,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-24","endDate":"2027-01-01","venueStatus":"live","boundVia":"event:venezuela-crisis"}],"venue":"polymarket","priceAsOf":"2026-09-26","dropped":0,"note":"prices are a sensor we cite and grade, never a probability of ours (docs/decisions/20260817 Not a Forecasting Shop)"},"refereeGrades":[],"theRecord":{"state":"measured","reason":"","documents":608,"outlets":223,"activeDays":7,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","lastSeen":"2026-09-26","assertionMix":{"utterance":58,"price-threshold":34,"econ-release":23,"military-action":17,"rate-decision":11,"meeting-visit":9},"countsBasis":"event-graph","receiptsOnRecord":19,"withheldFutureDated":0,"droppedInputs":2,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 7 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"ourAttention":{"state":"cannot-measure","level":null,"direction":"unknown","reason":"no attention series carries this subject — the entity-trends shard does not index it, so our own attention is UNKNOWN, not zero"},"ourRead":{"state":"measured","reason":"","corroboratedNow":[{"claim":"Africa: Ethiopia, Djibouti Hail Dangote's $660 Million Pipeline As Energy Security Boost","clusterKey":"44104cf8444f","tier":"Cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":4,"independentCount":4,"earliestDate":"2026-09-24"},{"claim":"Wall Street opens lower as oil, bond yields move up ahead of US-China summit","clusterKey":"0a826f2bc4ce","tier":"Some cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":3,"independentCount":3,"earliestDate":"2026-09-21"},{"claim":"France to send military to protect Saudi Arabia on Red Sea oil route, Macron says","clusterKey":"b09a102882c9","tier":"Some cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":3,"independentCount":3,"earliestDate":"2026-09-24"}],"corroboratedCount":3,"singleSource":[{"claim":"US judge dismisses Michigan climate lawsuit against oil companies","clusterKey":"01b9c60746e6","tier":"Some cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"earliestDate":"2026-09-23"},{"claim":"Russia starts exports from Arctic Vostok Oil project in boost to long-term production","clusterKey":"10c2523a1b4d","tier":"Some cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"earliestDate":"2026-09-24"},{"claim":"Traders push for discounts for Venezuelan oil as shipping costs soar, sources say","clusterKey":"22e59c08bbf5","tier":"Some cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"earliestDate":"2026-09-22"},{"claim":"Hormuz Workarounds Keep Gulf Oil Flowing—at a Steep Cost","clusterKey":"23bf41171cc3","tier":"Some cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"earliestDate":"2026-09-22"},{"claim":"Don't end up punishing India: JPMorgan CEO asks US to rethink Russian oil tariffs","clusterKey":"381e1b053b87","tier":"Some cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"earliestDate":"2026-09-22"},{"claim":"Saudi Arabia sells nearly 100 million barrels of oil to Asia, easing looming supply crunch","clusterKey":"3e6d3fa1295b","tier":"Some cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"earliestDate":"2026-09-24"},{"claim":"ICE agent shoots and wounds Venezuelan man at traffic stop in Austin, Texas","clusterKey":"5d1039e39551","tier":"Some cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"earliestDate":"2026-09-21"},{"claim":"Saudi Arabia Denies Buying 25 Oil Tankers After Iraq Blames Purchases For Higher Costs","clusterKey":"a4f4251496ed","tier":"Some cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"earliestDate":"2026-09-23"}],"singleSourceCount":9,"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","items":[],"reason":"no polarity-comparable pair — no two claims on this record share a typed actor and action class over the same proposition, so no contradiction can be judged"},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","reason":"","added":[],"removed":[],"tierMoves":[],"against":"2026-09-26"},"divergence":{"state":"measured","reason":"","sensor":{"question":"Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?","pricePct":2.7,"venue":"polymarket","seenAt":"2026-09-26"},"corroboratedClaims":3,"text":"The crowd prices “Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?” at 2.7% on polymarket (seen 2026-09-26), beside 3 independently corroborated claim(s) on this record. The price is a sensor we cite and grade, not a probability of ours."},"heldAsProvenance":[],"inputsDropped":[{"reason":"receipt hygiene dropped the row: it carries no title or no URL at all","title":"Middle East War: Oil prices drop to their lowest in 10 days"},{"reason":"receipt hygiene dropped the row: it carries no title or no URL at all","title":"Wall St set for higher open as AI stocks rise, oil slides"},{"reason":"11 further joined cluster(s) beyond the 12-claim cap"}],"synthesis":null,"synthesisState":"withheld-by-design — synthesis runs only at full tier behind the coherence and no-advice gates, which this builder does not run","basis":[{"artifact":"cross_domain/analysis/whats_true_latest.json","used":"claims, tiers, independent origins","state":"read"},{"artifact":"web/signal-bureau/lib/event_market_receipts.json","used":"market sensor (event side)","state":"priced"},{"artifact":"web/signal-bureau/lib/corpus_evidence.json","used":"receipts and priced captures (entity side)","state":"read"}]},"sectionStates":{"definition":{"state":"templated-from-structure","reason":""},"claims":{"state":"measured","reason":""},"primaryDocuments":{"state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no row in registry/truth_sources.yaml names this subject, so it has no registered primary-source layer"},"marketSensor":{"state":"priced","reason":""},"refereeGrades":{"state":"published-but-ungraded","reason":""},"theRecord":{"state":"measured","reason":""},"ourAttention":{"state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no attention series carries this subject — the entity-trends shard does not index it, so our own attention is UNKNOWN, not zero"},"ourRead":{"state":"measured","reason":""}},"currency":{"state":"current","asOf":"2026-09-26","basis":{"asOf":"2026-09-26","newestObservationAt":"2026-09-26","newestObservationBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","ageDays":0,"expectedCadenceDays":18,"cadenceBasis":"this record's own observed cadence — 7 active day(s) over a 126-day window","graceMultiple":1,"wallMultiple":3,"blindSources":[],"retiredAt":null,"recordState":"measured"},"sentence":"This record is current: the newest source item is from 2026-09-26, inside its expected cadence of about one item every 18 days."},"scope":{"state":"measured","reason":null,"countsBasis":"event-graph","countsWindow":{"from":"2026-05-24","to":"2026-09-26","activeDays":7,"documents":608,"outlets":223},"claimsWindow":{"from":"2026-09-20","to":"2026-09-26"},"coverageStart":{"state":"measured","date":"2026-05-24","basis":"first counted document (event-graph)","alternates":[{"date":"2026-07-16","basis":"registered in the publication registry"}],"reason":null},"retiredAt":null,"receipts":{"withReceipt":12,"total":12,"cannotMeasure":0},"claimTiers":[{"id":"strong","label":"Cross-source agreement","rank":0,"count":1},{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","rank":1,"count":11}],"claimsShown":12,"claimsDropped":11,"claimsAtPublishedTiers":12,"publishedTiers":["strong","moderate"],"note":"This record's counts are the event-graph for this subject — 608 document(s) over 7 active day(s) from 2026-05-24 to 2026-09-26; its 12 claim(s) come from the corroboration run covering 2026-09-20 to 2026-09-26 and include every agreement tier (12 of them at the published tiers strong, moderate), so a cumulative archive total published on another surface counts a different set over a different window and is not expected to match this one. Coverage of this subject begins 2026-05-24 — first counted document (event-graph); other structures date it 2026-07-16 (registered in the publication registry)."},"limits":[{"section":"primaryDocuments","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no row in registry/truth_sources.yaml names this subject, so it has no registered primary-source layer"},{"section":"ourAttention","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no attention series carries this subject — the entity-trends shard does not index it, so our own attention is UNKNOWN, not zero"}],"verify":{"rest":"GET /api/truth/venezuela-crisis","mcp":"get_truth_record {\"slug\": \"venezuela-crisis\"}"},"claimsMeta":{"state":"measured","reason":"","dropped":11},"primaryDocumentsMeta":{"state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no row in registry/truth_sources.yaml names this subject, so it has no registered primary-source layer"},"refereeGradesMeta":{"state":"published-but-ungraded","reason":"","counts":{"published":4,"graded":0},"note":"probabilities were published on this subject and none has been graded against a resolved outcome yet"},"changeLog":[{"at":"2026-09-26","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-26","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-26","what":"claims changed: +5 −5, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-25","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-25","what":"claims changed: +8 −8, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-24","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-24","what":"claims changed: +8 −8, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-23","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-23","what":"claims changed: +8 −8, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-22","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-22","what":"claims changed: +8 −8, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-21","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-21","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-20","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-20","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-20","what":"claims changed: +5 −5, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-19","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-19","what":"claims changed: +7 −7, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-18","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-18","what":"claims changed: +8 −8, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-17","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-17","what":"claims changed: +8 −8, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-16","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-16","what":"claims changed: +8 −8, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-15","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-15","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-15","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-15","what":"claims changed: +8 −8, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-14","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-14","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-14","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-14","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-14","what":"claims changed: +8 −8, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-13","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-13","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-13","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-13","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-13","what":"claims changed: +7 −7, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-12","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-12","what":"claims changed: +8 −2, 0 tier move(s)"}],"provenance":{"generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:27:25.562814+00:00","asOf":"2026-09-26","windowStart":"2026-09-20","windowEnd":"2026-09-26","inputs":[{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/publication_state.json","generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:26:29.232977+00:00","sha":"6dbd177aef85e618"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/signal_bureau_snapshot.json","generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:26:29.232977+00:00","sha":"ea2a70b2c8e6a73d"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/corpus_evidence.json","generatedAt":"2026-09-26T20:45:06.917695+00:00","sha":"564b48bec13092ca"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/event_graph.json","generatedAt":null,"sha":"5721b3b6f3de4da0"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/event_market_receipts.json","generatedAt":"2026-09-26","sha":"eb6cc8a0b05de3e4"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/entity_trends.json","generatedAt":null,"sha":"7c111da898e1d641"},{"path":"cross_domain/analysis/whats_true_latest.json","generatedAt":"2026-09-26T08:05:06.476473Z","sha":null},{"path":"registry/truth_sources.yaml","generatedAt":null,"sha":"3439a8cab13733c0"},{"path":"cross_domain/predictions","generatedAt":null,"sha":"806f562ba9c33f63"}],"recordVersion":"8a0698c9dcc6afbc"}},"scope":{"oneRecord":"lib/truth_records/venezuela-crisis.json (sb.truth-record.v1) is the ONE producer of this subject's document count, outlet count, coverage window and claim rows. `record` is that file, verbatim. `exhibit` is the sb.truth.v1 view over it — the same numbers under the same names, plus the layers only the exhibit carries (first-party documents, press, our attention measurement, market belief).","sharedValues":["documents","outlets","activeDays","firstSeen","lastSeen","coverage.start","coverage.end","claims — row count, and each row's id, tier and claimUrl"],"differentByName":[{"key":"exhibit.layers.record.archive","measures":["documents","outlets","activeDays","since"],"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation","why":"a wider window than the maintained record's, so it is a DIFFERENT measure and never shares a key with it. Compare it to the record's counts and you are comparing two questions."}],"parityGate":"web/signal-bureau/scripts/check_truth_record_door.mjs §7 — a key carried by both under one name with two values fails the build."},"restPath":"/api/truth/venezuela-crisis","mcpTool":"get_truth_record","recordState":"served","maintainedRecord":{"schema":"sb.truth-record.v1","slug":"venezuela-crisis","kind":"event","subjectState":"active","tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"computed":"standard","served":"standard","passed":["at least 3 independent publishers on a joined claim","no unresolved contradiction on the record","at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read"],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"tierChangedAt":"2026-09-07","previousTier":"standard","subject":{"label":"Venezuela crisis","aliases":["caracas","machado","maduro","oil","us forces enter venezuela","venezuela","venezuela crisis","venezuela-crisis","venezuelan"],"eventKey":"venezuela-crisis","entityKeys":["machado","maduro","oil","venezuela","venezuela crisis","venezuela-crisis"],"mergedSlugs":[],"eventSlugs":["venezuela-crisis"]},"definition":{"whatThisIs":"Venezuela crisis is an event Signal Bureau maintains a record of (curated event). The record joins 608 document(s) from 223 outlet(s) in the corpus.","whyTracked":"Registered in the publication registry, which is deny-by-default: a subject is served only once it is registered.","coverageSince":"2026-05-24","coverageSinceBasis":"first counted document (event-graph)","coverageSinceState":"measured","coverageSinceReason":null,"coverageSinceAlternates":[{"date":"2026-07-16","basis":"registered in the publication registry"}],"notCovered":["No probability of ours: this record reports what sources and markets say, and grades them. It does not forecast.","No primary-source layer is registered for this subject, so no first-party document is read for it.","The calibration referee has graded nothing on this subject, so no accuracy record is shown."],"tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"computed":"standard","served":"standard","passed":["at least 3 independent publishers on a joined claim","no unresolved contradiction on the record","at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read"],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"state":"templated-from-structure","reason":""},"claims":[{"clusterKey":"44104cf8444f","claim":"Africa: Ethiopia, Djibouti Hail Dangote's $660 Million Pipeline As Energy Security Boost","claimUrl":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-24/dangote-ethiopia-to-invest-660-million-in-pipeline-storage","tier":{"id":"strong","label":"Cross-source agreement","meaning":"Four or more separate publishers carried this. Wire copies and republished copies are collapsed first — but publishers all working from one official statement still count separately, so this is agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":0,"countRule":"4 or more publishers"},"independentOrigins":4,"independentCount":4,"independenceBasis":"4 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"Bloomberg","wire":true},{"origin":"africanews.com","wire":false},{"origin":"allafrica.com","wire":false},{"origin":"bbc.co.uk","wire":false}],"wires":["Bloomberg"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-24","receipts":[{"origin":"Bloomberg","url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-24/dangote-ethiopia-to-invest-660-million-in-pipeline-storage","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":true,"redirect":false},{"origin":"africanews.com","url":"http://www.africanews.com/2026/09/25/ethiopia-djibouti-and-dangote-to-build-660m-petroleum-pipeline/","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"allafrica.com","url":"https://allafrica.com/stories/202609250008.html","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"bbc.co.uk","url":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6z9z7lv41wgo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"Bloomberg","url":"https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-24/dangote-ethiopia-to-invest-660-million-in-pipeline-storage","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":true,"redirect":false},{"origin":"africanews.com","url":"http://www.africanews.com/2026/09/25/ethiopia-djibouti-and-dangote-to-build-660m-petroleum-pipeline/","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"allafrica.com","url":"https://allafrica.com/stories/202609250008.html","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"bbc.co.uk","url":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c6z9z7lv41wgo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":4,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["oil"],"state":"corroborated"},{"clusterKey":"0a826f2bc4ce","claim":"Wall Street opens lower as oil, bond yields move up ahead of US-China summit","claimUrl":"https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260922/wall-street-nears-record-as-oil-prices-bond-yields-ease?utm_source=rss","tier":{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","meaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":1,"countRule":"2 or 3 publishers"},"independentOrigins":3,"independentCount":3,"independenceBasis":"3 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"Reuters","wire":true},{"origin":"koreatimes.co.kr","wire":false},{"origin":"businesstimes.com.sg","wire":false}],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-21","receipts":[{"origin":"Reuters","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxQeEU4dTJoZV9XeFR4cENDYXhRMG1Tb3E4aHFNc1RoUEpHeVJNYmtnS1RHb0lVdzg5S1BKelZiUkR4eER2bkFZc0tjcWxlRFEyODRlVlRoNlNmblFabUhsZnJwTllqbmd2RUQ5NmI0M0JVc3B3aVkwcmt0SE9vTERyLVhFRzIybV9OMU94QlF6UGdORGhJZldzTUJ6X1F2TjhTRVpLNDZWeVN6WU1hR0ZLRw?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-23","wire":true,"redirect":true},{"origin":"koreatimes.co.kr","url":"https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260922/wall-street-nears-record-as-oil-prices-bond-yields-ease?utm_source=rss","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"businesstimes.com.sg","url":"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/capital-markets-currencies/wall-street-opens-lower-oil-bond-yields-move-ahead-us-china-summit","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"Reuters","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMisAFBVV95cUxQeEU4dTJoZV9XeFR4cENDYXhRMG1Tb3E4aHFNc1RoUEpHeVJNYmtnS1RHb0lVdzg5S1BKelZiUkR4eER2bkFZc0tjcWxlRFEyODRlVlRoNlNmblFabUhsZnJwTllqbmd2RUQ5NmI0M0JVc3B3aVkwcmt0SE9vTERyLVhFRzIybV9OMU94QlF6UGdORGhJZldzTUJ6X1F2TjhTRVpLNDZWeVN6WU1hR0ZLRw?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-23","wire":true,"redirect":true},{"origin":"koreatimes.co.kr","url":"https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260922/wall-street-nears-record-as-oil-prices-bond-yields-ease?utm_source=rss","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"businesstimes.com.sg","url":"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/capital-markets-currencies/wall-street-opens-lower-oil-bond-yields-move-ahead-us-china-summit","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":3,"subjectDocuments":[{"t":"Wall Street nears record as oil prices, bond yields ease","src":"Korea Times","u":"https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20260922/wall-street-nears-record-as-oil-prices-bond-yields-ease?utm_source=rss","pd":"2026-09-21"}],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["document","entity"],"matchedKeys":["oil"],"state":"corroborated"},{"clusterKey":"b09a102882c9","claim":"France to send military to protect Saudi Arabia on Red Sea oil route, Macron says","claimUrl":"https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/09/france-send-military-protect-saudi-arabia-red-sea-oil-route-macron-says","tier":{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","meaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":1,"countRule":"2 or 3 publishers"},"independentOrigins":3,"independentCount":3,"independenceBasis":"3 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"Reuters","wire":true},{"origin":"france24.com","wire":false},{"origin":"twz.com","wire":false}],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-24","receipts":[{"origin":"Reuters","url":"https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/09/france-send-military-protect-saudi-arabia-red-sea-oil-route-macron-says","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":true,"redirect":false},{"origin":"france24.com","url":"https://www.france24.com/en/macron-says-military-resources-to-be-sent-to-saudi-arabia","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"twz.com","url":"https://www.twz.com/news-features/france-sending-forces-to-help-defend-saudi-arabias-red-sea-oil-facilities","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"Reuters","url":"https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/09/france-send-military-protect-saudi-arabia-red-sea-oil-route-macron-says","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":true,"redirect":false},{"origin":"france24.com","url":"https://www.france24.com/en/macron-says-military-resources-to-be-sent-to-saudi-arabia","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"twz.com","url":"https://www.twz.com/news-features/france-sending-forces-to-help-defend-saudi-arabias-red-sea-oil-facilities","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":3,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["oil"],"state":"corroborated"},{"clusterKey":"01b9c60746e6","claim":"US judge dismisses Michigan climate lawsuit against oil companies","claimUrl":"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Michigan-Judge-Tosses-States-Antitrust-Suit-Against-Big-Oil.html","tier":{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","meaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":1,"countRule":"2 or 3 publishers"},"independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"independenceBasis":"2 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"Reuters","wire":true},{"origin":"oilprice.com","wire":false}],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-23","receipts":[{"origin":"Reuters","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiugFBVV95cUxQdkZ5eXYtMDNUYjFadlJmZlltWmlrSVRwLVlqT2tLSFlNUF9iTWtzcVVLX3MwY1AzbWg0SVVxQXg2dDVTeFV1QmFyRE85WkltWUJ0ejQ2Q1RydkFjTEJmUmlZc0NwTkc0OEdrMWM4eURCNXVMWEhUdjhWYVZFclF1UDFvUTIybl9OaTlvQW82TlRFVi1PSGdWV1lUX0ZFLXdVS0NyejRjaVVxTmxtT0I4RDJ1ajR3ZzZSbUE?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":true,"redirect":true},{"origin":"oilprice.com","url":"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Michigan-Judge-Tosses-States-Antitrust-Suit-Against-Big-Oil.html","publishedAt":"2026-09-23","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"Reuters","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiugFBVV95cUxQdkZ5eXYtMDNUYjFadlJmZlltWmlrSVRwLVlqT2tLSFlNUF9iTWtzcVVLX3MwY1AzbWg0SVVxQXg2dDVTeFV1QmFyRE85WkltWUJ0ejQ2Q1RydkFjTEJmUmlZc0NwTkc0OEdrMWM4eURCNXVMWEhUdjhWYVZFclF1UDFvUTIybl9OaTlvQW82TlRFVi1PSGdWV1lUX0ZFLXdVS0NyejRjaVVxTmxtT0I4RDJ1ajR3ZzZSbUE?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":true,"redirect":true},{"origin":"oilprice.com","url":"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Michigan-Judge-Tosses-States-Antitrust-Suit-Against-Big-Oil.html","publishedAt":"2026-09-23","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":2,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["oil"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"10c2523a1b4d","claim":"Russia starts exports from Arctic Vostok Oil project in boost to long-term production","claimUrl":"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Begins-Oil-Exports-From-Its-Giant-Vostok-Arctic-Project.html","tier":{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","meaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":1,"countRule":"2 or 3 publishers"},"independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"independenceBasis":"2 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"Reuters","wire":true},{"origin":"oilprice.com","wire":false}],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-24","receipts":[{"origin":"Reuters","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxOWXA0X3pNQTJnQUo0Ti1PQnlsbW9tNy1BY19Qek1XS0JmQ2tjT0hpYXE0UmlKYy1sN1FXdm5VTGYwQzh5WF8yOFY5OE1fMUlBT1llVlRGc1pEOThuT3pLRFhTNmVYa3IzLV9oMDcwYm42UjZWVXpOZGFsN3pUNGVTeGZwb2c1ZHktNG9tNXA2aExoazFLXy1wZl9fZnVsSTVtWXVwU2U0dWl3TjNEbC1iT0ZlSTF0YzRWa205ZnBTX2g0UU5P?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":true,"redirect":true},{"origin":"oilprice.com","url":"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Begins-Oil-Exports-From-Its-Giant-Vostok-Arctic-Project.html","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"Reuters","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixAFBVV95cUxOWXA0X3pNQTJnQUo0Ti1PQnlsbW9tNy1BY19Qek1XS0JmQ2tjT0hpYXE0UmlKYy1sN1FXdm5VTGYwQzh5WF8yOFY5OE1fMUlBT1llVlRGc1pEOThuT3pLRFhTNmVYa3IzLV9oMDcwYm42UjZWVXpOZGFsN3pUNGVTeGZwb2c1ZHktNG9tNXA2aExoazFLXy1wZl9fZnVsSTVtWXVwU2U0dWl3TjNEbC1iT0ZlSTF0YzRWa205ZnBTX2g0UU5P?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":true,"redirect":true},{"origin":"oilprice.com","url":"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Russia-Begins-Oil-Exports-From-Its-Giant-Vostok-Arctic-Project.html","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":2,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["oil"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"22e59c08bbf5","claim":"Traders push for discounts for Venezuelan oil as shipping costs soar, sources say","claimUrl":"https://gcaptain.com/traders-push-for-discounts-for-venezuelan-oil-as-shipping-costs-soar/","tier":{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","meaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":1,"countRule":"2 or 3 publishers"},"independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"independenceBasis":"2 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"Reuters","wire":true},{"origin":"gcaptain.com","wire":false}],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-22","receipts":[{"origin":"Reuters","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxQOVVMaFBzbF9UZE5pd2VoZlZnclpPTjU3SVRDTkFzSjFOWk04VzREVjRnSlFCZTBJV1g0SXRMT3hJeFRwVjNwM2JuLTBVOHJZcndDZTc0bEt6NFlweElqQ3oyWGFtTzBUVDE1dEV4NFE5UnVDbV9IelEzU2dHNzhSQ3lKbVVBNW1pMTdSbTFqV0RCOXd6Z3FfU2NBMU1tUWZPOXItX3d5Z1RQZnRlU3VzLXVveFN2LThhSjdxaXp3?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-22","wire":true,"redirect":true},{"origin":"gcaptain.com","url":"https://gcaptain.com/traders-push-for-discounts-for-venezuelan-oil-as-shipping-costs-soar/","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"Reuters","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMivgFBVV95cUxQOVVMaFBzbF9UZE5pd2VoZlZnclpPTjU3SVRDTkFzSjFOWk04VzREVjRnSlFCZTBJV1g0SXRMT3hJeFRwVjNwM2JuLTBVOHJZcndDZTc0bEt6NFlweElqQ3oyWGFtTzBUVDE1dEV4NFE5UnVDbV9IelEzU2dHNzhSQ3lKbVVBNW1pMTdSbTFqV0RCOXd6Z3FfU2NBMU1tUWZPOXItX3d5Z1RQZnRlU3VzLXVveFN2LThhSjdxaXp3?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-22","wire":true,"redirect":true},{"origin":"gcaptain.com","url":"https://gcaptain.com/traders-push-for-discounts-for-venezuelan-oil-as-shipping-costs-soar/","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":2,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["oil","venezuela"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"23bf41171cc3","claim":"Hormuz Workarounds Keep Gulf Oil Flowing—at a Steep Cost","claimUrl":"https://gcaptain.com/hormuz-shuttles-keep-oil-flowing-but-at-a-high-cost/","tier":{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","meaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":1,"countRule":"2 or 3 publishers"},"independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"independenceBasis":"2 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"gcaptain.com","wire":false},{"origin":"oilprice.com","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-22","receipts":[{"origin":"gcaptain.com","url":"https://gcaptain.com/hormuz-shuttles-keep-oil-flowing-but-at-a-high-cost/","publishedAt":"2026-09-22","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"oilprice.com","url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Hormuz-Workarounds-Keep-Gulf-Oil-Flowingat-a-Steep-Cost.html","publishedAt":"2026-09-23","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"gcaptain.com","url":"https://gcaptain.com/hormuz-shuttles-keep-oil-flowing-but-at-a-high-cost/","publishedAt":"2026-09-22","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"oilprice.com","url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Hormuz-Workarounds-Keep-Gulf-Oil-Flowingat-a-Steep-Cost.html","publishedAt":"2026-09-23","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":2,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["oil"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"381e1b053b87","claim":"Don't end up punishing India: JPMorgan CEO asks US to rethink Russian oil tariffs","claimUrl":"https://cryptobriefing.com/jpmorgan-dimon-india-russian-oil-tariffs/","tier":{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","meaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":1,"countRule":"2 or 3 publishers"},"independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"independenceBasis":"2 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"cryptobriefing.com","wire":false},{"origin":"indiatoday.in","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-22","receipts":[{"origin":"cryptobriefing.com","url":"https://cryptobriefing.com/jpmorgan-dimon-india-russian-oil-tariffs/","publishedAt":"2026-09-22","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"indiatoday.in","url":"https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-asks-us-to-rethink-russian-oil-tariffs-india-says-dont-end-up-punishing-3000468-2026-09-22?utm_source=rss","publishedAt":"2026-09-22","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"cryptobriefing.com","url":"https://cryptobriefing.com/jpmorgan-dimon-india-russian-oil-tariffs/","publishedAt":"2026-09-22","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"indiatoday.in","url":"https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/jpmorgan-ceo-jamie-dimon-asks-us-to-rethink-russian-oil-tariffs-india-says-dont-end-up-punishing-3000468-2026-09-22?utm_source=rss","publishedAt":"2026-09-22","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":2,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["oil"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"3e6d3fa1295b","claim":"Saudi Arabia sells nearly 100 million barrels of oil to Asia, easing looming supply crunch","claimUrl":"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/energy-commodities/saudi-arabia-sells-nearly-100-million-barrels-oil-asia-easing-looming-supply-crunch","tier":{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","meaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":1,"countRule":"2 or 3 publishers"},"independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"independenceBasis":"2 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"businesstimes.com.sg","wire":false},{"origin":"oilprice.com","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-24","receipts":[{"origin":"businesstimes.com.sg","url":"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/energy-commodities/saudi-arabia-sells-nearly-100-million-barrels-oil-asia-easing-looming-supply-crunch","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"oilprice.com","url":"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Arabia-Sells-100-Million-Barrels-of-Crude-to-Asia-via-Hormuz.html","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"businesstimes.com.sg","url":"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/energy-commodities/saudi-arabia-sells-nearly-100-million-barrels-oil-asia-easing-looming-supply-crunch","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"oilprice.com","url":"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Saudi-Arabia-Sells-100-Million-Barrels-of-Crude-to-Asia-via-Hormuz.html","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":2,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["oil"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"5d1039e39551","claim":"ICE agent shoots and wounds Venezuelan man at traffic stop in Austin, Texas","claimUrl":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3y0z25v0zjwo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss","tier":{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","meaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":1,"countRule":"2 or 3 publishers"},"independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"independenceBasis":"2 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"bbc.co.uk","wire":false},{"origin":"theguardian.com","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-21","receipts":[{"origin":"bbc.co.uk","url":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3y0z25v0zjwo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"theguardian.com","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/20/man-shot-ice-agent-austin-texas","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"bbc.co.uk","url":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c3y0z25v0zjwo?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"theguardian.com","url":"https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/20/man-shot-ice-agent-austin-texas","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":2,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["venezuela"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"a4f4251496ed","claim":"Saudi Arabia Denies Buying 25 Oil Tankers After Iraq Blames Purchases For Higher Costs","claimUrl":"https://www.marineinsight.com/saudi-arabia-denies-buying-25-oil-tankers-after-iraq-blames-purchases-for-higher-costs/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=saudi-arabia-denies-buying-25-oil-tankers-after-iraq-blames-purchases-for-higher-costs","tier":{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","meaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":1,"countRule":"2 or 3 publishers"},"independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"independenceBasis":"2 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"Reuters","wire":true},{"origin":"marineinsight.com","wire":false}],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-23","receipts":[{"origin":"Reuters","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixgFBVV95cUxNWUNHdHYwOEhlYi1ORzFuRTAzWkhwamp0OHBxR0FPRjB6d2M0YVNUUFlIY2xfcU52MzI3X0hGRmlwcENtVWVhWkJ4d1NMTzFTc0V5bUlnZmZTNnIta29qWURucFJaeXBoUjJfRnIyekN1WjJ1X3B6Z2JqREltNXZ3R2pNYVBKWTB3WjE1c3hiRXFMVXdhNGhqRnRZWFRRZEtsRldVRGtuWWh5RmdDcFM2SE1MemYtOUlTUEotZV95dUJybEExb1E?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-23","wire":true,"redirect":true},{"origin":"marineinsight.com","url":"https://www.marineinsight.com/saudi-arabia-denies-buying-25-oil-tankers-after-iraq-blames-purchases-for-higher-costs/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=saudi-arabia-denies-buying-25-oil-tankers-after-iraq-blames-purchases-for-higher-costs","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"Reuters","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMixgFBVV95cUxNWUNHdHYwOEhlYi1ORzFuRTAzWkhwamp0OHBxR0FPRjB6d2M0YVNUUFlIY2xfcU52MzI3X0hGRmlwcENtVWVhWkJ4d1NMTzFTc0V5bUlnZmZTNnIta29qWURucFJaeXBoUjJfRnIyekN1WjJ1X3B6Z2JqREltNXZ3R2pNYVBKWTB3WjE1c3hiRXFMVXdhNGhqRnRZWFRRZEtsRldVRGtuWWh5RmdDcFM2SE1MemYtOUlTUEotZV95dUJybEExb1E?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-23","wire":true,"redirect":true},{"origin":"marineinsight.com","url":"https://www.marineinsight.com/saudi-arabia-denies-buying-25-oil-tankers-after-iraq-blames-purchases-for-higher-costs/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=saudi-arabia-denies-buying-25-oil-tankers-after-iraq-blames-purchases-for-higher-costs","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":2,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["oil"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"e34db0939212","claim":"Jaishankar flags India's concerns to Rubio over US sanctions on Russian oil buyers","claimUrl":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/New-US-Sanctions-Law-Threatens-Indias-Huge-Russian-Oil-Trade.html","tier":{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","meaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":1,"countRule":"2 or 3 publishers"},"independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"independenceBasis":"2 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"indiatoday.in","wire":false},{"origin":"oilprice.com","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-21","receipts":[{"origin":"indiatoday.in","url":"https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/jaishankar-flags-india-interests-and-concerns-to-rubio-over-us-sanctions-on-russian-oil-buyers-3001500-2026-09-23?utm_source=rss","publishedAt":"2026-09-23","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"oilprice.com","url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/New-US-Sanctions-Law-Threatens-Indias-Huge-Russian-Oil-Trade.html","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"indiatoday.in","url":"https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/jaishankar-flags-india-interests-and-concerns-to-rubio-over-us-sanctions-on-russian-oil-buyers-3001500-2026-09-23?utm_source=rss","publishedAt":"2026-09-23","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"oilprice.com","url":"https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/New-US-Sanctions-Law-Threatens-Indias-Huge-Russian-Oil-Trade.html","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":2,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["oil"],"state":"single-source"}],"primaryDocuments":[],"marketSensor":{"state":"priced","reason":"","questions":[{"question":"Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-us-invade-venezuela-by-december-31-2026","pricePct":2.7,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-26","endDate":"2026-03-31","venueStatus":"live","boundVia":"event:venezuela-crisis"},{"question":"Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to between 20 and 40 years in prison?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-nicols-maduro-be-sentenced-to-between-20-and-40-years-in-prison","pricePct":1.4,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-26","endDate":"2027-12-31","venueStatus":"live","boundVia":"event:venezuela-crisis"},{"question":"Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-mara-corina-machado-be-the-leader-of-venezuela-end-of-2026","pricePct":0.05,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-26","endDate":"2027-01-01","venueStatus":"live","boundVia":"event:venezuela-crisis"},{"question":"Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/nicols-maduro-released-from-custody-by-december-31-2026","pricePct":5.5,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-26","endDate":"2026-01-31","venueStatus":"live","boundVia":"event:venezuela-crisis"},{"question":"Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/venezuela-election-scheduled-by-december-31-2026","pricePct":14.5,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-25","endDate":"2026-03-31","venueStatus":"live","boundVia":"event:venezuela-crisis"},{"question":"Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/delcy-rodrguez-out-as-leader-of-venezuela-by-december-31-2026-148-853","pricePct":11,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-24","endDate":"2027-01-01","venueStatus":"live","boundVia":"event:venezuela-crisis"}],"venue":"polymarket","priceAsOf":"2026-09-26","dropped":0,"note":"prices are a sensor we cite and grade, never a probability of ours (docs/decisions/20260817 Not a Forecasting Shop)"},"refereeGrades":[],"theRecord":{"state":"measured","reason":"","documents":608,"outlets":223,"activeDays":7,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","lastSeen":"2026-09-26","assertionMix":{"utterance":58,"price-threshold":34,"econ-release":23,"military-action":17,"rate-decision":11,"meeting-visit":9},"countsBasis":"event-graph","receiptsOnRecord":19,"withheldFutureDated":0,"droppedInputs":2,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 7 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"ourAttention":{"state":"cannot-measure","level":null,"direction":"unknown","reason":"no attention series carries this subject — the entity-trends shard does not index it, so our own attention is UNKNOWN, not zero"},"ourRead":{"state":"measured","reason":"","corroboratedNow":[{"claim":"Africa: Ethiopia, Djibouti Hail Dangote's $660 Million Pipeline As Energy Security Boost","clusterKey":"44104cf8444f","tier":"Cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":4,"independentCount":4,"earliestDate":"2026-09-24"},{"claim":"Wall Street opens lower as oil, bond yields move up ahead of US-China summit","clusterKey":"0a826f2bc4ce","tier":"Some cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":3,"independentCount":3,"earliestDate":"2026-09-21"},{"claim":"France to send military to protect Saudi Arabia on Red Sea oil route, Macron says","clusterKey":"b09a102882c9","tier":"Some cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":3,"independentCount":3,"earliestDate":"2026-09-24"}],"corroboratedCount":3,"singleSource":[{"claim":"US judge dismisses Michigan climate lawsuit against oil companies","clusterKey":"01b9c60746e6","tier":"Some cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"earliestDate":"2026-09-23"},{"claim":"Russia starts exports from Arctic Vostok Oil project in boost to long-term production","clusterKey":"10c2523a1b4d","tier":"Some cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"earliestDate":"2026-09-24"},{"claim":"Traders push for discounts for Venezuelan oil as shipping costs soar, sources say","clusterKey":"22e59c08bbf5","tier":"Some cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"earliestDate":"2026-09-22"},{"claim":"Hormuz Workarounds Keep Gulf Oil Flowing—at a Steep Cost","clusterKey":"23bf41171cc3","tier":"Some cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"earliestDate":"2026-09-22"},{"claim":"Don't end up punishing India: JPMorgan CEO asks US to rethink Russian oil tariffs","clusterKey":"381e1b053b87","tier":"Some cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"earliestDate":"2026-09-22"},{"claim":"Saudi Arabia sells nearly 100 million barrels of oil to Asia, easing looming supply crunch","clusterKey":"3e6d3fa1295b","tier":"Some cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"earliestDate":"2026-09-24"},{"claim":"ICE agent shoots and wounds Venezuelan man at traffic stop in Austin, Texas","clusterKey":"5d1039e39551","tier":"Some cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"earliestDate":"2026-09-21"},{"claim":"Saudi Arabia Denies Buying 25 Oil Tankers After Iraq Blames Purchases For Higher Costs","clusterKey":"a4f4251496ed","tier":"Some cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":2,"earliestDate":"2026-09-23"}],"singleSourceCount":9,"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","items":[],"reason":"no polarity-comparable pair — no two claims on this record share a typed actor and action class over the same proposition, so no contradiction can be judged"},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","reason":"","added":[],"removed":[],"tierMoves":[],"against":"2026-09-26"},"divergence":{"state":"measured","reason":"","sensor":{"question":"Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?","pricePct":2.7,"venue":"polymarket","seenAt":"2026-09-26"},"corroboratedClaims":3,"text":"The crowd prices “Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?” at 2.7% on polymarket (seen 2026-09-26), beside 3 independently corroborated claim(s) on this record. The price is a sensor we cite and grade, not a probability of ours."},"heldAsProvenance":[],"inputsDropped":[{"reason":"receipt hygiene dropped the row: it carries no title or no URL at all","title":"Middle East War: Oil prices drop to their lowest in 10 days"},{"reason":"receipt hygiene dropped the row: it carries no title or no URL at all","title":"Wall St set for higher open as AI stocks rise, oil slides"},{"reason":"11 further joined cluster(s) beyond the 12-claim cap"}],"synthesis":null,"synthesisState":"withheld-by-design — synthesis runs only at full tier behind the coherence and no-advice gates, which this builder does not run","basis":[{"artifact":"cross_domain/analysis/whats_true_latest.json","used":"claims, tiers, independent origins","state":"read"},{"artifact":"web/signal-bureau/lib/event_market_receipts.json","used":"market sensor (event side)","state":"priced"},{"artifact":"web/signal-bureau/lib/corpus_evidence.json","used":"receipts and priced captures (entity side)","state":"read"}]},"sectionStates":{"definition":{"state":"templated-from-structure","reason":""},"claims":{"state":"measured","reason":""},"primaryDocuments":{"state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no row in registry/truth_sources.yaml names this subject, so it has no registered primary-source layer"},"marketSensor":{"state":"priced","reason":""},"refereeGrades":{"state":"published-but-ungraded","reason":""},"theRecord":{"state":"measured","reason":""},"ourAttention":{"state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no attention series carries this subject — the entity-trends shard does not index it, so our own attention is UNKNOWN, not zero"},"ourRead":{"state":"measured","reason":""}},"currency":{"state":"current","asOf":"2026-09-26","basis":{"asOf":"2026-09-26","newestObservationAt":"2026-09-26","newestObservationBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","ageDays":0,"expectedCadenceDays":18,"cadenceBasis":"this record's own observed cadence — 7 active day(s) over a 126-day window","graceMultiple":1,"wallMultiple":3,"blindSources":[],"retiredAt":null,"recordState":"measured"},"sentence":"This record is current: the newest source item is from 2026-09-26, inside its expected cadence of about one item every 18 days."},"scope":{"state":"measured","reason":null,"countsBasis":"event-graph","countsWindow":{"from":"2026-05-24","to":"2026-09-26","activeDays":7,"documents":608,"outlets":223},"claimsWindow":{"from":"2026-09-20","to":"2026-09-26"},"coverageStart":{"state":"measured","date":"2026-05-24","basis":"first counted document (event-graph)","alternates":[{"date":"2026-07-16","basis":"registered in the publication registry"}],"reason":null},"retiredAt":null,"receipts":{"withReceipt":12,"total":12,"cannotMeasure":0},"claimTiers":[{"id":"strong","label":"Cross-source agreement","rank":0,"count":1},{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","rank":1,"count":11}],"claimsShown":12,"claimsDropped":11,"claimsAtPublishedTiers":12,"publishedTiers":["strong","moderate"],"note":"This record's counts are the event-graph for this subject — 608 document(s) over 7 active day(s) from 2026-05-24 to 2026-09-26; its 12 claim(s) come from the corroboration run covering 2026-09-20 to 2026-09-26 and include every agreement tier (12 of them at the published tiers strong, moderate), so a cumulative archive total published on another surface counts a different set over a different window and is not expected to match this one. Coverage of this subject begins 2026-05-24 — first counted document (event-graph); other structures date it 2026-07-16 (registered in the publication registry)."},"limits":[{"section":"primaryDocuments","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no row in registry/truth_sources.yaml names this subject, so it has no registered primary-source layer"},{"section":"ourAttention","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no attention series carries this subject — the entity-trends shard does not index it, so our own attention is UNKNOWN, not zero"}],"verify":{"rest":"GET /api/truth/venezuela-crisis","mcp":"get_truth_record {\"slug\": \"venezuela-crisis\"}"},"claimsMeta":{"state":"measured","reason":"","dropped":11},"primaryDocumentsMeta":{"state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no row in registry/truth_sources.yaml names this subject, so it has no registered primary-source layer"},"refereeGradesMeta":{"state":"published-but-ungraded","reason":"","counts":{"published":4,"graded":0},"note":"probabilities were published on this subject and none has been graded against a resolved outcome yet"},"changeLog":[{"at":"2026-09-26","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-26","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-26","what":"claims changed: +5 −5, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-25","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-25","what":"claims changed: +8 −8, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-24","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-24","what":"claims changed: +8 −8, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-23","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-23","what":"claims changed: +8 −8, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-22","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-22","what":"claims changed: +8 −8, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-21","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-21","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-20","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-20","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-20","what":"claims changed: +5 −5, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-19","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-19","what":"claims changed: +7 −7, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-18","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-18","what":"claims changed: +8 −8, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-17","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-17","what":"claims changed: +8 −8, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-16","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-16","what":"claims changed: +8 −8, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-15","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-15","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-15","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-15","what":"claims changed: +8 −8, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-14","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-14","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-14","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-14","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-14","what":"claims changed: +8 −8, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-13","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-13","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-13","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-13","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-13","what":"claims changed: +7 −7, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-12","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-12","what":"claims changed: +8 −2, 0 tier move(s)"}],"provenance":{"generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:27:25.562814+00:00","asOf":"2026-09-26","windowStart":"2026-09-20","windowEnd":"2026-09-26","inputs":[{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/publication_state.json","generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:26:29.232977+00:00","sha":"6dbd177aef85e618"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/signal_bureau_snapshot.json","generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:26:29.232977+00:00","sha":"ea2a70b2c8e6a73d"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/corpus_evidence.json","generatedAt":"2026-09-26T20:45:06.917695+00:00","sha":"564b48bec13092ca"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/event_graph.json","generatedAt":null,"sha":"5721b3b6f3de4da0"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/event_market_receipts.json","generatedAt":"2026-09-26","sha":"eb6cc8a0b05de3e4"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/entity_trends.json","generatedAt":null,"sha":"7c111da898e1d641"},{"path":"cross_domain/analysis/whats_true_latest.json","generatedAt":"2026-09-26T08:05:06.476473Z","sha":null},{"path":"registry/truth_sources.yaml","generatedAt":null,"sha":"3439a8cab13733c0"},{"path":"cross_domain/predictions","generatedAt":null,"sha":"806f562ba9c33f63"}],"recordVersion":"8a0698c9dcc6afbc"}}}