{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"strait-of-hormuz","title":"The Strait of Hormuz record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","asOf":"2026-08-08","generatedAt":"2026-08-08T23:26:25.200604+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/strait-of-hormuz and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/strait-of-hormuz so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source","items":[{"title":"ADNOC Reports 15 Vessel Attacks as Hormuz Risks Mount","url":"https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/ADNOC-Reports-15-Vessel-Attacks-as-Hormuz-Risks-Mount.html","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Iran aims to ban US and Israeli ships from Strait of Hormuz and charge others a toll. Iran's parliament is reviewing a plan to ban ships linked to \"hostile countries\" from the Strait until Tehran is compensated for war damage. The plan would also impose fees of up to 7% on commercial vessels.","url":"https://old.reddit.com/r/energy/comments/1vi4nt2/iran_aims_to_ban_us_and_israeli_ships_from_strait/","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Citi Raises Brent Forecast for 2026; Sees $150 Oil if Hormuz Disruption Persists - EnergyNow","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirAFBVV95cUxOb1NPMzB0SXNPOEc0bzFqZnVGMUJsRUl0T0F3RzFRRkI3Njlkc1VIakU3ZldfMl9FMjlFckJabkdZUlRyb2tDX0VuSmhVMXU5ZFNjMllGZmJZamRHMGN1TnRiQ3MyX3l6eWxHUC0yTU1naXNQeEJCeVBQRGxGYzNQbUZEQzU0aUdNSXNHVU04SEZURkVJR1llMGI3ajNtb2YxeDJGSjQxY3o4YkxR?oc=5&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Proposed Hormuz Passage Deal Not Feasible for Shipping Industry, Sources Say","url":"https://www.insurancejournal.com/news/international/2026/08/07/880681.htm","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":559,"outlets":83,"activeDays":37,"firstSeen":"2026-04-12","lastSeen":"2026-08-09","homeDomains":["iran_regime","middle_east","energy"],"asserts":{"utterance":104,"military-action":53,"meeting-visit":27,"sanction-trade":7,"acquisition":6,"price-threshold":5},"assertionCoverage":0.388,"movesWith":[{"label":"iran","n":465,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"],"verbs":{"meeting-visit":4,"ceasefire-deal":3,"sanction-trade":2}},{"label":"oman","n":216,"sharedDomains":["energy","iran_regime","middle_east"]},{"label":"oil","n":279,"sharedDomains":["energy"]},{"label":"saudi arabia","n":160,"sharedDomains":["energy","iran_regime","middle_east"],"verbs":{"meeting-visit":2}},{"label":"trump","n":245,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"label":"israel","n":196,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"label":"middle east","n":162,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"label":"yemen","n":101,"sharedDomains":["energy","iran_regime","middle_east"]}],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"rising","baselineRelativePct":19,"reading":"Our coverage of Strait of Hormuz is 19% above its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":89,"eventMentions":2269,"periods":[{"period":"2026-12","mentions":22},{"period":"2026-08","mentions":137},{"period":"2026","mentions":2110}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","current":[{"question":"US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/us-charges-hormuz-fees-byptptpt-20260713151243232","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":2,"change24hPct":null,"pricedAt":"2026-08-08","capturedAt":"2026-07-14","deadline":"2026-08-31","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer be under Iranian control by September 30, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/farsi-hengam-hormuz-or-kharg-island-no-longer-under-iranian-control-byptptpt-20260804165426109","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":6,"change24hPct":null,"pricedAt":"2026-08-08","capturedAt":"2026-08-06","deadline":"2026-09-30","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-december-31","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":60,"change24hPct":null,"pricedAt":"2026-08-08","capturedAt":"2026-07-12","deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[{"question":"Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/strait-of-hormuz-traffic-returns-to-normal-by-july-31","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":4,"change24hPct":-7,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-07-12","deadline":"2026-07-31","deadlinePassed":true,"reading":"belief, not fact","status":"historical capture — deadline passed, kept as recorded; final resolution at the venue"}],"eventArc":{"name":"Strait of Hormuz","slug":"strait-of-hormuz","questionCount":25,"questions":["US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?","Will at least 30 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by August 31, 2026?","Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by August 31, 2026?","Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by May 31?","Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on May 31?","Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?"],"mentions":2269,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","lastSeen":"2026-08-07"}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-08","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery."},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"fading","to":"steady","at":"2026-07-28T15:28:32.475746+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-25T15:00:16.995106+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"fading","at":"2026-07-29T16:14:44.489092+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-28T15:28:32.475746+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"fading","to":"rising","at":"2026-08-05T15:36:15.049741+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-29T16:14:44.489092+00:00"}]}}}