{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"product-launch-tesla","title":"The Product launch: Tesla record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","asOf":"2026-08-08","generatedAt":"2026-08-08T23:26:25.200604+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/product-launch-tesla and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/product-launch-tesla so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source","items":[{"title":"Tesla starts Megapack 3 production with 28% more energy per unit","url":"https://electrek.co/2026/08/06/tesla-megapack-3-production-starts-texas/","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"A 500 MWh Tesla Megapack battery just went live in Texas","url":"https://electrek.co/2026/08/06/tesla-megapack-power-orsted-big-new-texas-grid-battery/","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Tesla admits Cybertruck PCS defect, extends warranty to 8 years","url":"https://electrek.co/2026/08/07/tesla-cybertruck-pcs-defect-warranty-extension/","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Tesla Never Made An Electric Jet Boat, So This YouTuber Built One Himself","url":"https://insideevs.com/news/804151/tesla-powered-electric-mini-jet-boat/","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"What To Know About California's $3,500 EV Rebate—And Which Teslas Qualify","url":"https://insideevs.com/news/804079/california-ev-incentive-how-it-works-tesla/","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":121,"outlets":40,"activeDays":17,"firstSeen":"2026-05-16","lastSeen":"2026-08-08","homeDomains":["battery_storage","electric_vehicles"],"asserts":null,"assertionCoverage":0.107,"movesWith":[{"label":"ai","n":36,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"china","n":23,"sharedDomains":[],"verbs":{"acquisition":2}},{"label":"renewable energy","n":9,"sharedDomains":["battery_storage"]},{"label":"spacex","n":16,"sharedDomains":[],"verbs":{"acquisition":2}},{"label":"elon musk","n":15,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"google","n":14,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"apple","n":13,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"nvidia","n":13,"sharedDomains":[]}],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"fading","baselineRelativePct":-13,"reading":"Our coverage of Product launch: Tesla is 13% below its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":87,"eventMentions":87,"periods":[{"period":"2026-12","mentions":29},{"period":"2026","mentions":58}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","current":[{"question":"Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/largest-company-end-of-september-1785358369147","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":1,"change24hPct":-49.5,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-07-31","deadline":"2026-09-30","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $442.50 Week of July 6 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/will-tsla-hit-week-of-july-6-2026","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":1,"change24hPct":-48.5,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-07-09","deadline":null,"deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $420 end of July?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/tsla-above-in-july-2026","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":16,"change24hPct":-31.5,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-07-20","deadline":null,"deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of July 6 above $395?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/tsla-above-on-july-10-2026","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":82,"change24hPct":37,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-07-09","deadline":null,"deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Product launch: Tesla","slug":"product-launch-tesla","questionCount":3,"questions":["Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026?","Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?"],"mentions":87,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","lastSeen":"2026-06-30"}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-08","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery."},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"rising","at":"2026-07-30T20:44:17.114289+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-26T15:01:06.614667+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-08-02T15:08:36.484814+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-30T20:44:17.114289+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"fading","at":"2026-08-04T15:37:19.750066+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-02T15:08:36.484814+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"fading","to":"rising","at":"2026-08-06T15:33:39.246619+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-04T15:37:19.750066+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-08-07T15:06:56.050386+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-06T15:33:39.246619+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"fading","at":"2026-08-08T15:01:41.302777+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-07T15:06:56.050386+00:00"}]}}}