{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"product-launch-anthropic-claude-opus","title":"The Product launch: Anthropic & Claude Opus record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"anthropic","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"anthropic\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Product launch: Anthropic & Claude Opus\"). 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That is unmeasured, not a clean bill."},"corroboratedNow":{"state":"measured","count":3,"text":"Independent sources agree on 3 things about Product launch: Anthropic & Claude Opus in the current window: “Claude Opus 5.5, GPT-6 Sol, GPT-6 Luna, and a new price war” (15 separate publishers · 22 articles · 1 wire (Reuters), earliest Sep 22, 2026); “Google Admits Gemini AI Hacked Three Companies—It Stayed Silent for 7 Weeks” (6 separate publishers · 6 articles, earliest Sep 20, 2026), and 1 more on the record."},"singleSource":{"state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 3 recorded changes for Product launch: Anthropic & Claude Opus, the most recent on Sep 26, 2026 — each one a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},"divergence":{"state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 35% or higher?” at 99.95% (polymarket, Aug 9, 2026), while our own record holds 3 claims carried by three or more separate publishers. The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},"heldAsProvenance":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."},"inputsDropped":[{"input":"1 corroborated claim rows","why":"shown on the claims section rather than repeated in the read"},{"input":"single-source reporting","why":"no press-claims ledger exists for this subject; the corroborated feed does not publish uncleared tiers"},{"input":"entity priced captures","why":"our own sweep captured no priced row for this subject; the market rows here come from the event's venue receipts"}],"synthesis":null,"synthesisNote":"No synthesis is written for this record. 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That is unmeasured, not a clean bill."},{"key":"corroboratedNow","label":"What independent sources agree on","state":"measured","count":3,"text":"Independent sources agree on 3 things about Product launch: Anthropic & Claude Opus in the current window: “Claude Opus 5.5, GPT-6 Sol, GPT-6 Luna, and a new price war” (15 separate publishers · 22 articles · 1 wire (Reuters), earliest Sep 22, 2026); “Google Admits Gemini AI Hacked Three Companies—It Stayed Silent for 7 Weeks” (6 separate publishers · 6 articles, earliest Sep 20, 2026), and 1 more on the record."},{"key":"singleSource","label":"What rests on one source","state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},{"key":"contradicted","label":"What contradicts","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},{"key":"changedSinceLastRead","label":"What changed","state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 3 recorded changes for Product launch: Anthropic & Claude Opus, the most recent on Sep 26, 2026 — each one a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},{"key":"divergence","label":"The outside sensor, beside our record","state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 35% or higher?” at 99.95% (polymarket, Aug 9, 2026), while our own record holds 3 claims carried by three or more separate publishers. The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},{"key":"heldAsProvenance","label":"Held as provenance","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"states":{"firstParty":"cannot-measure","corroboratedNow":"measured","singleSource":"cannot-measure","contradicted":"cannot-measure","changedSinceLastRead":"measured","divergence":"measured","heldAsProvenance":"cannot-measure"}},"changeLog":{"key":"changeLog","heading":"What changed, and when","state":"recorded","started":null,"note":"The ledger holds 3 recorded changes for Product launch: Anthropic & Claude Opus, the most recent on Sep 26, 2026 — each one a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact.","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-09-24T14:57:43.912252+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-11T14:52:54.715089+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"rising","at":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-24T14:57:43.912252+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-09-26T14:52:38.279544+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00"}]},"verify":{"key":"verify","heading":"Verify it yourself","state":"measured","rest":"curl -s https://sigb.ai/api/truth/product-launch-anthropic-claude-opus","mcp":"curl -s https://sigb.ai/api/mcp -X POST -H 'content-type: application/json' \\\n  -d '{\"jsonrpc\":\"2.0\",\"id\":1,\"method\":\"tools/call\",\"params\":{\"name\":\"get_truth_object\",\"arguments\":{\"topic\":\"product-launch-anthropic-claude-opus\"}}}'","resource":null,"page":null,"note":"This page, GET /api/truth/product-launch-anthropic-claude-opus and the get_truth_object tool are assembled by one builder, so what you fetch is what you are reading."},"limits":{"key":"limits","heading":"What this record does not tell you","state":"measured","derived":[{"section":"refereeGrades","text":"How our cited sensor has scored: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the per-subject accuracy check. We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Product launch: Anthro"},{"section":"theRecord","text":"What we have collected: we could not measure it."},{"section":"ourRead.firstParty","text":"What the issuing authorities say: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the first-party read. No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so this record carries no document from an issuing authority. That is unmeasured, not a clean bill."},{"section":"ourRead.singleSource","text":"What rests on one source: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the single-source tier. We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},{"section":"ourRead.contradicted","text":"What contradicts: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is no polarity-comparable pair. We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},{"section":"ourRead.heldAsProvenance","text":"Held as provenance: we could not measure it. No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"standing":[],"note":"6 sections on this record came back \"we could not look\". Each is named below with the pass that failed, generated from the section's own state rather than typed here."},"provenance":{"key":"provenance","heading":"Where this record comes from","state":"measured","asOf":"2026-09-26","generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:26:29.232977+00:00","recordVersion":"sb.tr-b50066b9","releaseId":null,"builtAt":null,"releaseState":"cannot-measure","releaseNote":"the release manifest is a deploy-time asset (/release.json), stamped on the served response, never bundled into the record at build time","slaRow":null,"slaNote":"No freshness clock is registered for this record's own inputs yet; the sections above each carry the date they speak for."},"record":{"schema":"sb.truth-record-alias.v1","slug":"product-launch-anthropic-claude-opus","kind":"alias","aliasOf":"ai-model-race","canonicalEventKey":"ai-model-race","movedAt":"2026-09-26","reason":"`product-launch-anthropic-claude-opus` and `ai-model-race` are one event (`ai-model-race`); the maintained record lives at `ai-model-race` and this address answers with it","verify":{"rest":"GET /api/truth/ai-model-race","mcp":"get_truth_record {\"slug\": \"ai-model-race\"}"}},"scope":{"oneRecord":"lib/truth_records/product-launch-anthropic-claude-opus.json (sb.truth-record.v1) is the ONE producer of this subject's document count, outlet count, coverage window and claim rows. `record` is that file, verbatim. `exhibit` is the sb.truth.v1 view over it — the same numbers under the same names, plus the layers only the exhibit carries (first-party documents, press, our attention measurement, market belief).","sharedValues":["documents","outlets","activeDays","firstSeen","lastSeen","coverage.start","coverage.end","claims — row count, and each row's id, tier and claimUrl"],"differentByName":[{"key":"exhibit.layers.record.archive","measures":["documents","outlets","activeDays","since"],"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation","why":"a wider window than the maintained record's, so it is a DIFFERENT measure and never shares a key with it. Compare it to the record's counts and you are comparing two questions."}],"parityGate":"web/signal-bureau/scripts/check_truth_record_door.mjs §7 — a key carried by both under one name with two values fails the build."},"restPath":"/api/truth/product-launch-anthropic-claude-opus","mcpTool":"get_truth_record","recordState":"served","maintainedRecord":{"schema":"sb.truth-record-alias.v1","slug":"product-launch-anthropic-claude-opus","kind":"alias","aliasOf":"ai-model-race","canonicalEventKey":"ai-model-race","movedAt":"2026-09-26","reason":"`product-launch-anthropic-claude-opus` and `ai-model-race` are one event (`ai-model-race`); the maintained record lives at `ai-model-race` and this address answers with it","verify":{"rest":"GET /api/truth/ai-model-race","mcp":"get_truth_record {\"slug\": \"ai-model-race\"}"}}}