{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"israel-iran-conflict","title":"The Israel Iran Conflict record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"israel","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"israel\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Israel Iran Conflict\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: hormuz, iceland, nuclear, space force — the registry attaches them to this event, but the subject line does not name them.","candidatesConsidered":["hormuz","iceland","iran","israel","kharg island","nuclear","space force"],"alsoDefensible":["iran","kharg island"],"rejected":["hormuz","iceland","nuclear","space force"],"actionClass":null},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-09-26","currency":{"state":"current","asOf":"2026-09-10","basis":{"asOf":"2026-09-26","newestObservationAt":"2026-09-10","newestObservationBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","ageDays":16,"expectedCadenceDays":24,"cadenceBasis":"this record's own observed cadence — 7 active day(s) over a 166-day window","graceMultiple":1,"wallMultiple":3,"blindSources":[],"retiredAt":null,"recordState":"measured"},"sentence":"This record is current: the newest source item is from 2026-09-10, inside its expected cadence of about one item every 24 days."},"generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:26:29.232977+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/israel-iran-conflict and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://sigb.ai/api/truth/israel-iran-conflict so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"israel\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"observed","note":"Event-relevance filtered: 4 attributable rows sampled for \"israel\", 1 served, 3 withheld as not shown to be about \"Israel Iran Conflict\". The served count is reduced on purpose and reported, never quietly smaller.","sampledForSubject":4,"served":1,"withheldNotEventRelevant":3,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["iran","conflict","curated","fordow","nuclear","strike","war","iranian","irgc","kharg","island","natanz"],"questionSet":[]},"items":[{"title":"JD Vance on AI, Entitlement Fraud, Iran War, Israel, H-1B Abuse & the Midterms","url":"https://allinchamathjason.libsyn.com/jd-vance-on-ai-entitlement-fraud-iran-war-israel-h-1b-abuse-the-midterms","date":"2026-09-15","source":"All-In with Chamath, Jason, Sacks & Friedberg","eventTerms":["iran","war","iranian"],"relevance":"subject-line-term","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":3217,"outlets":550,"activeDays":7,"firstSeen":"2026-03-29","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-09-10","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-03-29","end":"2026-09-10","activeDays":7,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 7 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":2488,"outlets":245,"activeDays":70,"since":"2026-03-30","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-09-22","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["middle_east","europe_politics"],"asserts":{"utterance":269,"military-action":258,"ceasefire-deal":98,"meeting-visit":93,"sanction-trade":82,"election":41},"assertionCoverage":0.406,"movesWith":[{"name":"gaza","together":1068,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics","middle_east"],"verbs":{"ceasefire-deal":86}},{"name":"iran","together":1162,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"],"verbs":{"ceasefire-deal":3}},{"name":"un","together":468,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics","middle_east"]},{"name":"middle east","together":706,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"saudi arabia","together":464,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"palestine","together":453,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"president donald trump","together":450,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"]},{"name":"trump","together":728}],"movesWithLabels":["gaza","iran","un","middle east","saudi arabia","palestine","president donald trump","trump"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":-27,"reading":"Our coverage of Israel Iran Conflict is 27% below its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":136,"eventMentions":151,"periods":[{"period":"2027","mentions":75},{"period":"2026-09","mentions":76}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"observed","rowsNote":null,"current":[{"question":"Israel closes its airspace by September 30?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-closes-its-airspace-by","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":58,"change24hPct":46.5,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-09-04","deadline":"2026-09-30","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Israel Iran Conflict","slug":"israel-iran-conflict","questionCount":0,"questions":[],"mentions":151,"firstSeen":"2026-03-29","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-09-10","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-09-26","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"israel\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Israel Iran Conflict\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: hormuz, iceland, nuclear, space force — the registry attaches them to this event, but the subject line does not name them. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[]},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-09-24T14:57:43.912252+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-08T15:17:58.202118+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"rising","at":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-24T14:57:43.912252+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-09-26T14:52:38.279544+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00"}]}},"sectionOrder":["definition","primaryDocuments","claims","theRecord","ourAttention","marketSensor","refereeGrades","ourRead","changeLog","limits","verify","provenance"],"definition":{"key":"definition","heading":"What this record is","state":"written","whatThisIs":"A Middle Eastern state whose wars, alliances, and politics shape regional security and global diplomacy.","whyTracked":"We hold 3217 documents from 550 outlets over 7 active days. It runs through 8 coverage domains we watch, including Energy, Europe Politics, India South Asia.","coverageSince":{"date":"2026-03-29","status":"observed","text":"Our first document on this subject is dated Mar 29, 2026; the count above is everything since."},"notCovered":["Our attention, not the world's state. Every count here is a count of what our own sweep collected about israel.","550 outlets in our declared source universe — not the whole internet.","Market prices are the venue's number, cited and graded as an outside sensor. We publish no probability of our own on this record."],"tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"passed":["a claim carried by three or more separate publishers","at least one market question bound to this record"],"failed":["a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself"],"conditions":[{"id":"first-party-read","text":"a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself","passed":false},{"id":"independent-origins","text":"a claim carried by three or more separate publishers","passed":true},{"id":"bound-market-question","text":"at least one market question bound to this record","passed":true}]},"stateNote":"Written definition, from the curated orientation glossary."},"claims":{"key":"claims","heading":"What independent sources agree on","state":"corroborated","source":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these rows","window":{"start":"2026-09-20","end":"2026-09-26"},"counts":{"clustersTotal":1046,"corroborated":12,"published":60,"clustersWithAggregatorOrigin":24,"clustersWithClaimUrl":60,"originsWithReceiptUrl":451,"originsPublished":454,"recordRows":12,"singleSource":0},"publishedTiers":["strong","moderate"],"dropped":84,"note":"12 claims about this subject are on the maintained record for the window Sep 20, 2026 – Sep 26, 2026 — 12 carried by three or more separate publishers, 0 carried by one and labelled single-source. The count is of publishers, not of truth: many outlets echoing one official statement is a wide echo, not a second check.","singleSourceVisible":true,"rows":[{"id":"714b9e7d0805","clusterKey":"714b9e7d0805","claim":"Trump greets China’s Xi at airport in historic move — as nations agree to trade truce to kick off high-stakes DC visit","claimUrl":"https://www.19fortyfive.com/2026/09/donald-trump-says-he-could-annihilate-iran-in-the-coming-weeks/","tier":"strong","tierLabel":"Cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Four or more separate publishers carried this. Wire copies and republished copies are collapsed first — but publishers all working from one official statement still count separately, so this is agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":53,"origins":["AP","Bloomberg","Reuters","TASS","Xinhua","19fortyfive.com","ABC News","aljazeera.com","al-monitor.com","anews","asiatimes.com","atlanticcouncil.org"],"wires":["AP","Bloomberg","Reuters","TASS","Xinhua"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["document","entity"],"originsSummary":"53 separate publishers · 5 wires (AP, Bloomberg, Reuters, TASS, Xinhua)","marketLine":null},{"id":"82656bb03aba","clusterKey":"82656bb03aba","claim":"Tensions escalate in Middle East ahead of high-stakes UN General Assembly. Here’s what to know","claimUrl":"https://tass.com/world/2190299","tier":"strong","tierLabel":"Cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Four or more separate publishers carried this. Wire copies and republished copies are collapsed first — but publishers all working from one official statement still count separately, so this is agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":16,"origins":["AP","TASS","abcnews.com","allafrica.com","al-monitor.com","cfr.org","civil.ge","japantimes.co.jp","dailysabah.com","euronews.com","france24.com","news.google.com"],"wires":["AP","TASS"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"16 separate publishers · 2 wires (AP, TASS)","marketLine":null},{"id":"42fbcd991169","clusterKey":"42fbcd991169","claim":"Son of Israel's ambassador to U.S. seriously injured in ramming attack in the occupied West Bank","claimUrl":"https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/09/palestinian-gunman-shoots-dead-israeli-west-bank-soldiers-kill-motorist","tier":"strong","tierLabel":"Cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Four or more separate publishers carried this. Wire copies and republished copies are collapsed first — but publishers all working from one official statement still count separately, so this is agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":8,"origins":["AP","Reuters","aljazeera.com","dailysabah.com","france24.com","latimes.com","middleeasteye.net","nytimes.com"],"wires":["AP","Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"8 separate publishers · 2 wires (AP, Reuters)","marketLine":null},{"id":"96da4fadca21","clusterKey":"96da4fadca21","claim":"Binance Faces Fresh U.S. Iran Sanctions Probe as Prosecutors Scrutinize Crypto Trades","claimUrl":"https://bitcoinfoundation.org/news/crypto-exchanges/binance-faces-fresh-u-s-iran-sanctions-probe-as-prosecutors-scrutinize-crypto-trades/","tier":"strong","tierLabel":"Cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Four or more separate publishers carried this. Wire copies and republished copies are collapsed first — but publishers all working from one official statement still count separately, so this is agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":5,"origins":["Reuters","cointelegraph.com","crypto.news","cryptopolitan.com","cryptotimes.io"],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-22","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"5 separate publishers · 1 wire (Reuters)","marketLine":null},{"id":"401f879c2403","clusterKey":"401f879c2403","claim":"Turkish carriers remove Iran flights from schedules into 2027 amid US sanctions","claimUrl":"https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/09/turkish-carriers-halt-iran-flights-us-sanctions-bite-who-could-follow","tier":"strong","tierLabel":"Cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Four or more separate publishers carried this. Wire copies and republished copies are collapsed first — but publishers all working from one official statement still count separately, so this is agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":5,"origins":["al-monitor.com","dailysabah.com","news.google.com","middleeasteye.net","turkishminute.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-22","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"5 separate publishers","marketLine":null},{"id":"a60d4a8f2aee","clusterKey":"a60d4a8f2aee","claim":"Federal Reserve official says inflation persistence led her to support interest rate hike","claimUrl":"https://www.independent.co.uk/news/donald-trump-great-recession-treasury-washington-rsm-b3053110.html","tier":"strong","tierLabel":"Cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Four or more separate publishers carried this. Wire copies and republished copies are collapsed first — but publishers all working from one official statement still count separately, so this is agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":5,"origins":["AP","ABC News","independent.co.uk","Commentaries","news.google.com"],"wires":["AP"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"5 separate publishers · 1 wire (AP)","marketLine":null},{"id":"d1dfd60bf299","clusterKey":"d1dfd60bf299","claim":"Gaza death toll climbs to 73,914 as four more Palestinians killed in Israeli attacks","claimUrl":"https://www.aljazeera.com/video/newsfeed/2026/9/20/gazas-children-return-to-classrooms-after-years-of-israeli-attacks?traffic_source=rss","tier":"strong","tierLabel":"Cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Four or more separate publishers carried this. Wire copies and republished copies are collapsed first — but publishers all working from one official statement still count separately, so this is agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":5,"origins":["Reuters","aljazeera.com","dailysabah.com","news.google.com","middleeasteye.net"],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"5 separate publishers · 1 wire (Reuters)","marketLine":null},{"id":"421f2c6605a6","clusterKey":"421f2c6605a6","claim":"Google inks deal to support nuclear uprates at Georgia Power's Vogtle and Hatch plants","claimUrl":"https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/google-inks-deal-to-support-nuclear-uprates-at-georgia-powers-vogtle-and-hatch-plants/","tier":"strong","tierLabel":"Cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Four or more separate publishers carried this. Wire copies and republished copies are collapsed first — but publishers all working from one official statement still count separately, so this is agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":4,"origins":["datacenterdynamics.com","news.google.com","powermag.com","world-nuclear-news.org"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-22","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"4 separate publishers","marketLine":null},{"id":"2b0b79df3117","clusterKey":"2b0b79df3117","claim":"Space Force relaunches commercial accelerator, prepares to welcome new cohort - Aerospace America","claimUrl":"https://aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org/space-force-relaunches-commercial-accelerator-prepares-to-welcome-new-cohort/","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":3,"origins":["Aerospace America","aerospaceamerica.aiaa.org","aiaa aerospace america"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-23","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"3 separate publishers","marketLine":null},{"id":"43ee75e049d2","clusterKey":"43ee75e049d2","claim":"Live: Syria’s Sharaa vows that Israeli-occupied Golan Heights will remain Syrian","claimUrl":"https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/09/golan-will-remain-syrian-vows-president-al-sharaa-un","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":3,"origins":["al-monitor.com","dailysabah.com","france24.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-23","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"3 separate publishers","marketLine":null},{"id":"44ef0982c7b6","clusterKey":"44ef0982c7b6","claim":"France to summon Iran envoy after language centre closure in Tehran","claimUrl":"https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260920-iran-closes-french-language-centre-in-tehran-for-illegal-acts","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":3,"origins":["Reuters","aljazeera.com","france24.com"],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"3 separate publishers · 1 wire (Reuters)","marketLine":null},{"id":"451b572ae568","clusterKey":"451b572ae568","claim":"Italy returns to nuclear power after almost four decades","claimUrl":"https://oilprice.com/Alternative-Energy/Nuclear-Power/Italy-Returns-to-Nuclear-After-40-Year-Hiatus.html","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":3,"origins":["brusselssignal.eu","oilprice.com","world-nuclear-news.org"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-24","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"3 separate publishers","marketLine":null}]},"primaryDocuments":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[],"key":"primaryDocuments","heading":"What the issuing authorities publish","undatedCount":0,"undatedNote":null},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","heading":"What prediction markets price","state":"priced","joinPerformed":true,"eventSlug":"israel-iran-conflict","counts":{"eventReceipts":0,"entityCaptures":1,"served":1,"live":1,"expired":0},"newestPriceStamp":"2026-09-04","venueStatusNote":null,"note":"1 market question ride this record, newest price stamp Sep 4, 2026. A price is the venue's number, cited as one outside sensor and graded against how reality resolved; it is never a probability of ours.","rows":[{"question":"Israel closes its airspace by September 30?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/israel-closes-its-airspace-by","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":58,"change24hPct":46.5,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-09-04","deadline":"2026-09-30","deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact","venueStatus":null,"origin":"entity-capture"}],"basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred"},"refereeGrades":{"key":"refereeGrades","heading":"How our cited sensor has scored","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the per-subject accuracy check","grades":[],"note":"We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Israel Iran Conflict has been scored, so this section can say nothing about it on its own. The scoring anyone can read is at https://sigb.ai/api/calibration-data.","where":"https://sigb.ai/api/calibration-data"},"theRecord":{"label":"The record itself","basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 7 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"],"state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":3217,"outlets":550,"activeDays":7,"firstSeen":"2026-03-29","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-09-10","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-03-29","end":"2026-09-10","activeDays":7,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 7 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":2488,"outlets":245,"activeDays":70,"since":"2026-03-30","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-09-22","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["middle_east","europe_politics"],"asserts":{"utterance":269,"military-action":258,"ceasefire-deal":98,"meeting-visit":93,"sanction-trade":82,"election":41},"assertionCoverage":0.406,"movesWith":[{"name":"gaza","together":1068,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics","middle_east"],"verbs":{"ceasefire-deal":86}},{"name":"iran","together":1162,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"],"verbs":{"ceasefire-deal":3}},{"name":"un","together":468,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics","middle_east"]},{"name":"middle east","together":706,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"saudi arabia","together":464,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"palestine","together":453,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"president donald trump","together":450,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"]},{"name":"trump","together":728}],"movesWithLabels":["gaza","iran","un","middle east","saudi arabia","palestine","president donald trump","trump"],"provenance":"curated","key":"theRecord","heading":"What we have collected","status":"measured","basisNote":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting"},"ourAttention":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":-27,"reading":"Our coverage of Israel Iran Conflict is 27% below its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":136,"eventMentions":151,"periods":[{"period":"2027","mentions":75},{"period":"2026-09","mentions":76}],"key":"ourAttention","heading":"How closely we are watching","state":"measured","directionWord":"steady","glyph":"→"},"ourRead":{"key":"ourRead","heading":"Our read","basisNote":"our analysis of this record's own dated sections; ours, and labeled ours — never a forecast, and never a probability of ours","asOf":"2026-09-26","firstParty":{"state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so this record carries no document from an issuing authority. That is unmeasured, not a clean bill."},"corroboratedNow":{"state":"measured","count":12,"text":"Independent sources agree on 12 things about Israel Iran Conflict in the current window: “Trump greets China’s Xi at airport in historic move — as nations agree to trade truce to kick off high-stakes DC visit” (53 separate publishers · 5 wires (AP, Bloomberg, Reuters, TASS, Xinhua), earliest Sep 20, 2026); “Tensions escalate in Middle East ahead of high-stakes UN General Assembly. Here’s what to know” (16 separate publishers · 2 wires (AP, TASS), earliest Sep 20, 2026), and 10 more on the record."},"singleSource":{"state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 3 recorded changes for Israel Iran Conflict, the most recent on Sep 26, 2026 — each one a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},"divergence":{"state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Israel closes its airspace by September 30?” at 58% (Polymarket (ai-tech)), while our own record holds 12 claims carried by three or more separate publishers. The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},"heldAsProvenance":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."},"inputsDropped":[{"input":"10 corroborated claim rows","why":"shown on the claims section rather than repeated in the read"},{"input":"single-source reporting","why":"no press-claims ledger exists for this subject; the corroborated feed does not publish uncleared tiers"}],"synthesis":null,"synthesisNote":"No synthesis is written for this record. A synthesis is our own paragraph over corroborated claims with receipts; until it is computed, the clauses above are the whole read and nothing is templated to look like one.","basis":[{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Trump greets China’s Xi at airport in historic move — as nations agree to trade truce to kick off high-stakes DC visit","asOf":"2026-09-20"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Tensions escalate in Middle East ahead of high-stakes UN General Assembly. Here’s what to know","asOf":"2026-09-20"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Son of Israel's ambassador to U.S. seriously injured in ramming attack in the occupied West Bank","asOf":"2026-09-20"},{"kind":"market sensor","text":"Israel closes its airspace by September 30? — 58% (Polymarket (ai-tech))","asOf":"2026-09-04"}],"clauses":[{"key":"firstParty","label":"What the issuing authorities say","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so this record carries no document from an issuing authority. That is unmeasured, not a clean bill."},{"key":"corroboratedNow","label":"What independent sources agree on","state":"measured","count":12,"text":"Independent sources agree on 12 things about Israel Iran Conflict in the current window: “Trump greets China’s Xi at airport in historic move — as nations agree to trade truce to kick off high-stakes DC visit” (53 separate publishers · 5 wires (AP, Bloomberg, Reuters, TASS, Xinhua), earliest Sep 20, 2026); “Tensions escalate in Middle East ahead of high-stakes UN General Assembly. Here’s what to know” (16 separate publishers · 2 wires (AP, TASS), earliest Sep 20, 2026), and 10 more on the record."},{"key":"singleSource","label":"What rests on one source","state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},{"key":"contradicted","label":"What contradicts","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},{"key":"changedSinceLastRead","label":"What changed","state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 3 recorded changes for Israel Iran Conflict, the most recent on Sep 26, 2026 — each one a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},{"key":"divergence","label":"The outside sensor, beside our record","state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Israel closes its airspace by September 30?” at 58% (Polymarket (ai-tech)), while our own record holds 12 claims carried by three or more separate publishers. The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},{"key":"heldAsProvenance","label":"Held as provenance","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"states":{"firstParty":"cannot-measure","corroboratedNow":"measured","singleSource":"cannot-measure","contradicted":"cannot-measure","changedSinceLastRead":"measured","divergence":"measured","heldAsProvenance":"cannot-measure"}},"changeLog":{"key":"changeLog","heading":"What changed, and when","state":"recorded","started":null,"note":"The ledger holds 3 recorded changes for Israel Iran Conflict, the most recent on Sep 26, 2026 — each one a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact.","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-09-24T14:57:43.912252+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-08T15:17:58.202118+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"rising","at":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-24T14:57:43.912252+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-09-26T14:52:38.279544+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00"}]},"verify":{"key":"verify","heading":"Verify it yourself","state":"measured","rest":"curl -s https://sigb.ai/api/truth/israel-iran-conflict","mcp":"curl -s https://sigb.ai/api/mcp -X POST -H 'content-type: application/json' \\\n  -d '{\"jsonrpc\":\"2.0\",\"id\":1,\"method\":\"tools/call\",\"params\":{\"name\":\"get_truth_object\",\"arguments\":{\"topic\":\"israel-iran-conflict\"}}}'","resource":null,"page":null,"note":"This page, GET /api/truth/israel-iran-conflict and the get_truth_object tool are assembled by one builder, so what you fetch is what you are reading."},"limits":{"key":"limits","heading":"What this record does not tell you","state":"measured","derived":[{"section":"refereeGrades","text":"How our cited sensor has scored: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the per-subject accuracy check. We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Israel Iran Conflict h"},{"section":"ourRead.firstParty","text":"What the issuing authorities say: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the first-party read. No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so this record carries no document from an issuing authority. That is unmeasured, not a clean bill."},{"section":"ourRead.singleSource","text":"What rests on one source: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the single-source tier. We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},{"section":"ourRead.contradicted","text":"What contradicts: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is no polarity-comparable pair. We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},{"section":"ourRead.heldAsProvenance","text":"Held as provenance: we could not measure it. No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"standing":[],"note":"5 sections on this record came back \"we could not look\". Each is named below with the pass that failed, generated from the section's own state rather than typed here."},"provenance":{"key":"provenance","heading":"Where this record comes from","state":"measured","asOf":"2026-09-26","generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:26:29.232977+00:00","recordVersion":"sb.tr-f3d1975e","releaseId":null,"builtAt":null,"releaseState":"cannot-measure","releaseNote":"the release manifest is a deploy-time asset (/release.json), stamped on the served response, never bundled into the record at build time","slaRow":null,"slaNote":"No freshness clock is registered for this record's own inputs yet; the sections above each carry the date they speak for."},"record":{"schema":"sb.truth-record.v1","slug":"israel-iran-conflict","kind":"event","subjectState":"dormant","tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"computed":"standard","served":"standard","passed":["at least 3 independent publishers on a joined claim","no unresolved contradiction on the record","at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read"],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"tierChangedAt":"2026-09-07","previousTier":"standard","subject":{"label":"Israel Iran Conflict","aliases":["fordow","hormuz","iceland","iran","iran israel","iran nuclear","iran strike","iran war","iranian nuclear","irgc","israel","israel iran"],"eventKey":"israel-iran-conflict","entityKeys":["hormuz","iceland","iran","israel","israel iran conflict","israel-iran-conflict","kharg island","nuclear","space force"],"mergedSlugs":[],"eventSlugs":["israel-iran-conflict"]},"definition":{"whatThisIs":"Israel Iran Conflict is an event Signal Bureau maintains a record of (curated event). 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