{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"gaza-ceasefire","title":"The Gaza ceasefire record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"gaza","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"gaza\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Gaza ceasefire\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: israel — the registry attaches it to this event, but the subject line does not name it.","candidatesConsidered":["gaza","israel"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":["israel"],"actionClass":"ceasefire-deal"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-09-26","currency":{"state":"current","asOf":"2026-09-20","basis":{"asOf":"2026-09-26","newestObservationAt":"2026-09-20","newestObservationBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","ageDays":6,"expectedCadenceDays":20,"cadenceBasis":"this record's own observed cadence — 9 active day(s) over a 176-day window","graceMultiple":1,"wallMultiple":3,"blindSources":[],"retiredAt":null,"recordState":"measured"},"sentence":"This record is current: the newest source item is from 2026-09-20, inside its expected cadence of about one item every 20 days."},"generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:26:29.232977+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/gaza-ceasefire and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://sigb.ai/api/truth/gaza-ceasefire so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"gaza\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"observed","note":"Event-relevance filtered: 6 attributable rows sampled for \"gaza\", 1 served, 5 withheld as not shown to be about \"Gaza ceasefire\". The served count is reduced on purpose and reported, never quietly smaller.","sampledForSubject":6,"served":1,"withheldNotEventRelevant":5,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["ceasefire","curated","cancelled","truce","war","hamas","hostage","israel","rafah"],"questionSet":["flotilla","reach","may"]},"items":[{"title":"Inside ‘NAZA,’ the Bombshell Exposé on IDF’s War in Gaza","url":"https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/movies/movie-news/inside-naza-bombshell-expose-documentary-on-idf-war-in-gaza-1236698734/","date":"2026-09-13","source":"The Hollywood Reporter","eventTerms":["war"],"relevance":"subject-line-term","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":458,"outlets":100,"activeDays":9,"firstSeen":"2026-03-29","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-09-20","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-03-29","end":"2026-09-20","activeDays":9,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 9 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":1215,"outlets":103,"activeDays":31,"since":"2026-08-17","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-09-22","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["middle_east","europe_politics"],"asserts":{"utterance":116,"military-action":109,"ceasefire-deal":100,"sanction-trade":47,"meeting-visit":35,"election":22},"assertionCoverage":0.402,"movesWith":[{"name":"israel","together":1068,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics","middle_east"],"verbs":{"ceasefire-deal":86}},{"name":"west bank","together":343,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics","middle_east"],"verbs":{"meeting-visit":5,"ceasefire-deal":2}},{"name":"un","together":284,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics","middle_east"]},{"name":"palestine","together":364,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"netanyahu","together":231,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics","middle_east"],"verbs":{"ceasefire-deal":7}},{"name":"iran","together":346,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"],"verbs":{"ceasefire-deal":2}},{"name":"middle east","together":307,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"jewish","together":200,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]}],"movesWithLabels":["israel","west bank","un","palestine","netanyahu","iran","middle east","jewish"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":-2,"reading":"Our coverage of Gaza ceasefire is 2% below its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":134,"eventMentions":418,"periods":[{"period":"2027","mentions":80},{"period":"2026-09","mentions":25},{"period":"2026","mentions":313}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"none-captured","rowsNote":"Measured zero: no priced capture rides \"gaza\" in this build.","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Gaza ceasefire","slug":"gaza-ceasefire","questionCount":5,"questions":["Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?"],"mentions":418,"firstSeen":"2026-03-29","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-09-20","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-09-26","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"gaza\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Gaza ceasefire\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: israel — the registry attaches it to this event, but the subject line does not name it. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[]},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"rising","at":"2026-09-24T14:57:43.912252+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-06T15:09:28.353077+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-09-24T14:57:43.912252+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-06T15:09:28.353077+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-09-26T14:52:38.279544+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-24T14:57:43.912252+00:00"}]}},"sectionOrder":["definition","primaryDocuments","claims","theRecord","ourAttention","marketSensor","refereeGrades","ourRead","changeLog","limits","verify","provenance"],"definition":{"key":"definition","heading":"What this record is","state":"written","whatThisIs":"A Palestinian coastal territory bordering Israel and Egypt; the center of repeated Israel–Hamas wars.","whyTracked":"We hold 458 documents from 100 outlets over 9 active days. It runs through 8 coverage domains we watch, including Energy, Europe Politics, India South Asia. 5 market questions price outcomes under the event bound to it.","coverageSince":{"date":"2026-03-29","status":"observed","text":"Our first document on this subject is dated Mar 29, 2026; the count above is everything since."},"notCovered":["Our attention, not the world's state. Every count here is a count of what our own sweep collected about gaza.","100 outlets in our declared source universe — not the whole internet.","Market prices are the venue's number, cited and graded as an outside sensor. We publish no probability of our own on this record."],"tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"passed":["a claim carried by three or more separate publishers","at least one market question bound to this record"],"failed":["a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself"],"conditions":[{"id":"first-party-read","text":"a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself","passed":false},{"id":"independent-origins","text":"a claim carried by three or more separate publishers","passed":true},{"id":"bound-market-question","text":"at least one market question bound to this record","passed":true}]},"stateNote":"Written definition, from the curated orientation glossary."},"claims":{"key":"claims","heading":"What independent sources agree on","state":"corroborated","source":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these rows","window":{"start":"2026-09-20","end":"2026-09-26"},"counts":{"clustersTotal":1046,"corroborated":5,"published":60,"clustersWithAggregatorOrigin":24,"clustersWithClaimUrl":60,"originsWithReceiptUrl":451,"originsPublished":454,"recordRows":12,"singleSource":7},"publishedTiers":["strong","moderate"],"dropped":9,"note":"12 claims about this subject are on the maintained record for the window Sep 20, 2026 – Sep 26, 2026 — 5 carried by three or more separate publishers, 7 carried by one and labelled single-source. The count is of publishers, not of truth: many outlets echoing one official statement is a wide echo, not a second check.","singleSourceVisible":true,"rows":[{"id":"42fbcd991169","clusterKey":"42fbcd991169","claim":"Son of Israel's ambassador to U.S. seriously injured in ramming attack in the occupied West Bank","claimUrl":"https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/09/palestinian-gunman-shoots-dead-israeli-west-bank-soldiers-kill-motorist","tier":"strong","tierLabel":"Cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Four or more separate publishers carried this. 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Wire copies and republished copies are collapsed first — but publishers all working from one official statement still count separately, so this is agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":5,"origins":["Reuters","aljazeera.com","dailysabah.com","news.google.com","middleeasteye.net"],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"5 separate publishers · 1 wire (Reuters)","marketLine":null},{"id":"6973c7dc7a59","clusterKey":"6973c7dc7a59","claim":"Gaza’s recovery needs reach $71.5bn amid ‘most severe economic crisis’: UN","claimUrl":"https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/09/gaza-suffers-worlds-worst-ever-economic-crisis-un","tier":"strong","tierLabel":"Cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Four or more separate publishers carried this. 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facts.","independentOrigins":3,"origins":["Reuters","aljazeera.com","middleeasteye.net"],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-21","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["document","entity"],"originsSummary":"3 separate publishers · 1 wire (Reuters)","marketLine":null},{"id":"717f3022c6fc","clusterKey":"717f3022c6fc","claim":"Morning Digest: Opposition to move fresh notice for CEC’s removal; Netanyahu calls accusations of genocide in Gaza ‘the biggest lie of the century’, and more","claimUrl":"https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/24/netanyahu-un-speech-mahmoud-abbas","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":3,"origins":["AP","theguardian.com","thehindu.com"],"wires":["AP"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-24","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"3 separate 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agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["middleeasteye.net","theguardian.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["document","entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers","marketLine":null},{"id":"234233a10dfb","clusterKey":"234233a10dfb","claim":"Venice-winning Gaza documentary 'NAZA' set for European release","claimUrl":"https://www.euronews.com/2026/09/24/venice-winning-gaza-documentary-naza-set-for-european-release","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["euronews.com","theguardian.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-24","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers","marketLine":null},{"id":"297d2487b9f0","clusterKey":"297d2487b9f0","claim":"Trump administration asks US Supreme Court to allow detention of pro-Palestinian scholar","claimUrl":"https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/09/trump-administration-asks-us-supreme-court-allow-detention-pro-palestinian","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["Reuters","aljazeera.com"],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-22","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers · 1 wire (Reuters)","marketLine":null},{"id":"429f12250816","clusterKey":"429f12250816","claim":"In UN farewell, Macron denounces Trump's Gaza diplomacy as spectacle of 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this record — the receipt carries the venue's own status as unknown.","note":"1 market question ride this record, newest price stamp May 24, 2026. A price is the venue's number, cited as one outside sensor and graded against how reality resolved; it is never a probability of ours.","rows":[{"question":"Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-flotilla-reach-gaza-by-may-31","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.45,"pricedAt":"2026-05-24","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-05-31","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"}],"basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred"},"refereeGrades":{"key":"refereeGrades","heading":"How our cited sensor has scored","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the per-subject accuracy check","grades":[],"note":"We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Gaza ceasefire has been scored, so this section can say nothing about it on its own. The scoring anyone can read is at https://sigb.ai/api/calibration-data.","where":"https://sigb.ai/api/calibration-data"},"theRecord":{"label":"The record itself","basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 9 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"],"state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":458,"outlets":100,"activeDays":9,"firstSeen":"2026-03-29","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-09-20","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-03-29","end":"2026-09-20","activeDays":9,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 9 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":1215,"outlets":103,"activeDays":31,"since":"2026-08-17","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-09-22","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["middle_east","europe_politics"],"asserts":{"utterance":116,"military-action":109,"ceasefire-deal":100,"sanction-trade":47,"meeting-visit":35,"election":22},"assertionCoverage":0.402,"movesWith":[{"name":"israel","together":1068,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics","middle_east"],"verbs":{"ceasefire-deal":86}},{"name":"west bank","together":343,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics","middle_east"],"verbs":{"meeting-visit":5,"ceasefire-deal":2}},{"name":"un","together":284,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics","middle_east"]},{"name":"palestine","together":364,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"netanyahu","together":231,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics","middle_east"],"verbs":{"ceasefire-deal":7}},{"name":"iran","together":346,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"],"verbs":{"ceasefire-deal":2}},{"name":"middle east","together":307,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]},{"name":"jewish","together":200,"sharedDomains":["middle_east"]}],"movesWithLabels":["israel","west bank","un","palestine","netanyahu","iran","middle east","jewish"],"provenance":"curated","key":"theRecord","heading":"What we have collected","status":"measured","basisNote":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting"},"ourAttention":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":-2,"reading":"Our coverage of Gaza ceasefire is 2% below its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":134,"eventMentions":418,"periods":[{"period":"2027","mentions":80},{"period":"2026-09","mentions":25},{"period":"2026","mentions":313}],"key":"ourAttention","heading":"How closely we are watching","state":"measured","directionWord":"steady","glyph":"→"},"ourRead":{"key":"ourRead","heading":"Our read","basisNote":"our analysis of this record's own dated sections; ours, and labeled ours — never a forecast, and never a probability of ours","asOf":"2026-09-26","firstParty":{"state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so this record carries no document from an issuing authority. That is unmeasured, not a clean bill."},"corroboratedNow":{"state":"measured","count":12,"text":"Independent sources agree on 12 things about Gaza ceasefire in the current window: “Son of Israel's ambassador to U.S. seriously injured in ramming attack in the occupied West Bank” (8 separate publishers · 2 wires (AP, Reuters), earliest Sep 20, 2026); “Gaza death toll climbs to 73,914 as four more Palestinians killed in Israeli attacks” (5 separate publishers · 1 wire (Reuters), earliest Sep 20, 2026), and 10 more on the record."},"singleSource":{"state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 3 recorded changes for Gaza ceasefire, the most recent on Sep 26, 2026 — each one a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},"divergence":{"state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?” at 0.45% (polymarket, May 24, 2026), while our own record holds 12 claims carried by three or more separate publishers. The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},"heldAsProvenance":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."},"inputsDropped":[{"input":"10 corroborated claim rows","why":"shown on the claims section rather than repeated in the read"},{"input":"single-source reporting","why":"no press-claims ledger exists for this subject; the corroborated feed does not publish uncleared tiers"},{"input":"entity priced captures","why":"our own sweep captured no priced row for this subject; the market rows here come from the event's venue receipts"},{"input":"1 market questions past their deadline","why":"kept as historical capture, never presented as current expectation"}],"synthesis":null,"synthesisNote":"No synthesis is written for this record. A synthesis is our own paragraph over corroborated claims with receipts; until it is computed, the clauses above are the whole read and nothing is templated to look like one.","basis":[{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Son of Israel's ambassador to U.S. seriously injured in ramming attack in the occupied West Bank","asOf":"2026-09-20"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Gaza death toll climbs to 73,914 as four more Palestinians killed in Israeli attacks","asOf":"2026-09-20"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Gaza’s recovery needs reach $71.5bn amid ‘most severe economic crisis’: UN","asOf":"2026-09-24"},{"kind":"market sensor","text":"Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31? — 0.45% (polymarket)","asOf":"2026-05-24"}],"clauses":[{"key":"firstParty","label":"What the issuing authorities say","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so this record carries no document from an issuing authority. That is unmeasured, not a clean bill."},{"key":"corroboratedNow","label":"What independent sources agree on","state":"measured","count":12,"text":"Independent sources agree on 12 things about Gaza ceasefire in the current window: “Son of Israel's ambassador to U.S. seriously injured in ramming attack in the occupied West Bank” (8 separate publishers · 2 wires (AP, Reuters), earliest Sep 20, 2026); “Gaza death toll climbs to 73,914 as four more Palestinians killed in Israeli attacks” (5 separate publishers · 1 wire (Reuters), earliest Sep 20, 2026), and 10 more on the record."},{"key":"singleSource","label":"What rests on one source","state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},{"key":"contradicted","label":"What contradicts","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},{"key":"changedSinceLastRead","label":"What changed","state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 3 recorded changes for Gaza ceasefire, the most recent on Sep 26, 2026 — each one a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},{"key":"divergence","label":"The outside sensor, beside our record","state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Will the flotilla reach Gaza by May 31?” at 0.45% (polymarket, May 24, 2026), while our own record holds 12 claims carried by three or more separate publishers. The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},{"key":"heldAsProvenance","label":"Held as provenance","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"states":{"firstParty":"cannot-measure","corroboratedNow":"measured","singleSource":"cannot-measure","contradicted":"cannot-measure","changedSinceLastRead":"measured","divergence":"measured","heldAsProvenance":"cannot-measure"}},"changeLog":{"key":"changeLog","heading":"What changed, and when","state":"recorded","started":null,"note":"The ledger holds 3 recorded changes for Gaza ceasefire, the most recent on Sep 26, 2026 — each one a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact.","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"rising","at":"2026-09-24T14:57:43.912252+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-06T15:09:28.353077+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-09-24T14:57:43.912252+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-06T15:09:28.353077+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-09-26T14:52:38.279544+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-24T14:57:43.912252+00:00"}]},"verify":{"key":"verify","heading":"Verify it yourself","state":"measured","rest":"curl -s https://sigb.ai/api/truth/gaza-ceasefire","mcp":"curl -s https://sigb.ai/api/mcp -X POST -H 'content-type: application/json' \\\n  -d '{\"jsonrpc\":\"2.0\",\"id\":1,\"method\":\"tools/call\",\"params\":{\"name\":\"get_truth_object\",\"arguments\":{\"topic\":\"gaza-ceasefire\"}}}'","resource":null,"page":null,"note":"This page, GET /api/truth/gaza-ceasefire and the get_truth_object tool are assembled by one builder, so what you fetch is what you are reading."},"limits":{"key":"limits","heading":"What this record does not tell you","state":"measured","derived":[{"section":"refereeGrades","text":"How our cited sensor has scored: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the per-subject accuracy check. We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Gaza ceasefire has bee"},{"section":"ourRead.firstParty","text":"What the issuing authorities say: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the first-party read. No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so this record carries no document from an issuing authority. That is unmeasured, not a clean bill."},{"section":"ourRead.singleSource","text":"What rests on one source: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the single-source tier. We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},{"section":"ourRead.contradicted","text":"What contradicts: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is no polarity-comparable pair. We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},{"section":"ourRead.heldAsProvenance","text":"Held as provenance: we could not measure it. No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"standing":[],"note":"5 sections on this record came back \"we could not look\". Each is named below with the pass that failed, generated from the section's own state rather than typed here."},"provenance":{"key":"provenance","heading":"Where this record comes from","state":"measured","asOf":"2026-09-26","generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:26:29.232977+00:00","recordVersion":"sb.tr-ead8aee0","releaseId":null,"builtAt":null,"releaseState":"cannot-measure","releaseNote":"the release manifest is a deploy-time asset (/release.json), stamped on the served response, never bundled into the record at build time","slaRow":null,"slaNote":"No freshness clock is registered for this record's own inputs yet; the sections above each carry the date they speak for."},"record":{"schema":"sb.truth-record.v1","slug":"gaza-ceasefire","kind":"event","subjectState":"active","tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"computed":"standard","served":"standard","passed":["at least 3 independent publishers on a joined claim","no unresolved contradiction on the record","at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read"],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"tierChangedAt":"2026-09-07","previousTier":"standard","subject":{"label":"Gaza ceasefire","aliases":["ceasefire cancelled","ceasefire in gaza","gaza","gaza ceasefire","gaza truce","gaza war","gaza-ceasefire","hamas","hamas ceasefire","hostage deal","israel hamas ceasefire","rafah"],"eventKey":"gaza-ceasefire","entityKeys":["gaza","gaza ceasefire","gaza-ceasefire"],"mergedSlugs":[],"eventSlugs":["gaza-ceasefire"]},"definition":{"whatThisIs":"Gaza ceasefire is an event Signal Bureau maintains a record of (curated event). The record joins 458 document(s) from 100 outlet(s) in the corpus.","whyTracked":"Registered in the publication registry, which is deny-by-default: a subject is served only once it is registered.","coverageSince":"2026-03-29","coverageSinceBasis":"first counted document (event-graph)","coverageSinceState":"measured","coverageSinceReason":null,"coverageSinceAlternates":[{"date":"2026-07-16","basis":"registered in the publication registry"}],"notCovered":["No probability of ours: this record reports what sources and markets say, and grades them. It does not forecast.","No primary-source layer is registered for this subject, so no first-party document is read for it.","The calibration referee has graded nothing on this subject, so no accuracy record is shown."],"tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"computed":"standard","served":"standard","passed":["at least 3 independent publishers on a joined claim","no unresolved contradiction on the record","at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read"],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"state":"templated-from-structure","reason":""},"claims":[{"clusterKey":"42fbcd991169","claim":"Son of Israel's ambassador to U.S. seriously injured in ramming attack in the occupied West Bank","claimUrl":"https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/09/palestinian-gunman-shoots-dead-israeli-west-bank-soldiers-kill-motorist","tier":{"id":"strong","label":"Cross-source agreement","meaning":"Four or more separate publishers carried this. 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