{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"fed-rate-decision","title":"The Fed rate decisions record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"federal reserve","bound":true,"basis":"canonical-event-alias","statement":"Lead subject \"federal reserve\" — not spelled in the subject line (\"Fed rate decisions\"), but an exact member of the canonical alias list this platform maintains for \"fed-rate-decision\", so the binding is stated rather than inferred. The layers below are that subject's own.","candidatesConsidered":["federal reserve"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":[],"actionClass":"rate-decision"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-09-26","currency":{"state":"current","asOf":"2026-09-18","basis":{"asOf":"2026-09-26","newestObservationAt":"2026-09-18","newestObservationBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","ageDays":8,"expectedCadenceDays":13,"cadenceBasis":"this record's own observed cadence — 9 active day(s) over a 118-day window","graceMultiple":1,"wallMultiple":3,"blindSources":[],"retiredAt":null,"recordState":"measured"},"sentence":"This record is current: the newest source item is from 2026-09-18, inside its expected cadence of about one item every 13 days."},"generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:26:29.232977+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/fed-rate-decision and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://sigb.ai/api/truth/fed-rate-decision so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"federal reserve\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"observed","note":"Event-relevance filtered: 4 attributable rows sampled for \"federal reserve\", 1 served, 3 withheld as not shown to be about \"Fed rate decisions\". The served count is reduced on purpose and reported, never quietly smaller.","sampledForSubject":4,"served":1,"withheldNotEventRelevant":3,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["fed","decisions","decision","chair","cuts","hikes","holds","meeting","pause","raises","fomc","interest","powell","cut","hike"],"questionSet":["emergency","decrease","bps","december","october"]},"items":[{"title":"Federal Reserve Board announces termination of enforcement actions with United Texas Bank, Quontic Bank Acquisition Corp., and Quontic Bank Holdings Corp.","url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/enforcement20260904a.htm","date":"2026-09-04","source":"Federal Reserve press all","eventTerms":["holds"],"relevance":"subject-line-term","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":274,"outlets":151,"activeDays":9,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-09-18","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-05-24","end":"2026-09-18","activeDays":9,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 9 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":1115,"outlets":158,"activeDays":55,"since":"2026-04-14","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-09-22","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["auto"],"asserts":{"rate-decision":255,"econ-release":57,"price-threshold":30,"utterance":29,"meeting-visit":16,"launch-release":14},"assertionCoverage":0.401,"movesWith":[{"name":"interest rates","together":713,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"inflation","together":527,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"treasury","together":377,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"ai","together":245,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"crypto","together":233,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"cpi","together":222,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"bitcoin","together":212,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"central bank","together":193,"sharedDomains":["auto"]}],"movesWithLabels":["interest rates","inflation","treasury","ai","crypto","cpi","bitcoin","central bank"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":-68,"reading":"Our coverage of Fed rate decisions is 68% below its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":118,"eventMentions":5642,"periods":[{"period":"2027-07","mentions":5},{"period":"2027-06","mentions":51},{"period":"2027-04","mentions":5},{"period":"2027-03","mentions":5},{"period":"2027","mentions":467},{"period":"2026-12","mentions":445},{"period":"2026-10","mentions":448},{"period":"2026-09","mentions":553}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"none-captured","rowsNote":"Measured zero: no priced capture rides \"federal reserve\" in this build.","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Fed rate decisions","slug":"fed-rate-decision","questionCount":37,"questions":["Fed rate cut by July 2027 meeting?","Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?","Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?","Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?","Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?","Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?"],"mentions":5642,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-09-18","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-09-26","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"federal reserve\" — not spelled in the subject line (\"Fed rate decisions\"), but an exact member of the canonical alias list this platform maintains for \"fed-rate-decision\", so the binding is stated rather than inferred. The layers below are that subject's own. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[]},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-09-22T14:53:31.501988+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-13T14:49:35.275603+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-09-22T14:53:31.501988+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-13T14:49:35.275603+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"steady","at":"2026-09-24T14:57:43.912252+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-22T14:53:31.501988+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-09-24T14:57:43.912252+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-22T14:53:31.501988+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-24T14:57:43.912252+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-24T14:57:43.912252+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"steady","at":"2026-09-26T14:52:38.279544+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-09-26T14:52:38.279544+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00"}]}},"sectionOrder":["definition","primaryDocuments","claims","theRecord","ourAttention","marketSensor","refereeGrades","ourRead","changeLog","limits","verify","provenance"],"definition":{"key":"definition","heading":"What this record is","state":"written","whatThisIs":"The central bank of the United States; it sets interest rates and manages the money supply.","whyTracked":"We hold 274 documents from 151 outlets over 9 active days. It runs through 7 coverage domains we watch, including Crypto DEFI, India South Asia, Intelligence Surveillance. 37 market questions price outcomes under the event bound to it.","coverageSince":{"date":"2026-05-24","status":"observed","text":"Our first document on this subject is dated May 24, 2026; the count above is everything since."},"notCovered":["Our attention, not the world's state. Every count here is a count of what our own sweep collected about federal reserve.","151 outlets in our declared source universe — not the whole internet.","Market prices are the venue's number, cited and graded as an outside sensor. We publish no probability of our own on this record."],"tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"passed":["a claim carried by three or more separate publishers","at least one market question bound to this record"],"failed":["a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself"],"conditions":[{"id":"first-party-read","text":"a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself","passed":false},{"id":"independent-origins","text":"a claim carried by three or more separate publishers","passed":true},{"id":"bound-market-question","text":"at least one market question bound to this record","passed":true}]},"stateNote":"Written definition, from the curated orientation glossary."},"claims":{"key":"claims","heading":"What independent sources agree on","state":"corroborated","source":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these rows","window":{"start":"2026-09-20","end":"2026-09-26"},"counts":{"clustersTotal":1046,"corroborated":2,"published":60,"clustersWithAggregatorOrigin":24,"clustersWithClaimUrl":60,"originsWithReceiptUrl":451,"originsPublished":454,"recordRows":7,"singleSource":5},"publishedTiers":["strong","moderate"],"dropped":0,"note":"7 claims about this subject are on the maintained record for the window Sep 20, 2026 – Sep 26, 2026 — 2 carried by three or more separate publishers, 5 carried by one and labelled single-source. The count is of publishers, not of truth: many outlets echoing one official statement is a wide echo, not a second check.","singleSourceVisible":true,"rows":[{"id":"8d749576d475","clusterKey":"8d749576d475","claim":"Fed proposes reserve limits, capital standards for stablecoin issuers under GENIUS Act","claimUrl":"https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/09/24/u-s-federal-reserve-moves-on-proposals-to-implement-genius-act-for-stablecoins","tier":"strong","tierLabel":"Cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Four or more separate publishers carried this. Wire copies and republished copies are collapsed first — but publishers all working from one official statement still count separately, so this is agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":12,"origins":["Reuters","bankingjournal.aba.com","coindesk.com","cointelegraph.com","cryptobriefing.com","cryptotimes.io","decrypt.co","financefeeds.com","news.google.com","pymnts.com","startupfortune.com","theblock.co"],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-24","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"12 separate publishers · 1 wire (Reuters)","marketLine":null},{"id":"a60d4a8f2aee","clusterKey":"a60d4a8f2aee","claim":"Federal Reserve official says inflation persistence led her to support interest rate hike","claimUrl":"https://www.independent.co.uk/news/donald-trump-great-recession-treasury-washington-rsm-b3053110.html","tier":"strong","tierLabel":"Cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Four or more separate publishers carried this. Wire copies and republished copies are collapsed first — but publishers all working from one official statement still count separately, so this is agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":5,"origins":["AP","ABC News","independent.co.uk","Commentaries","news.google.com"],"wires":["AP"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"5 separate publishers · 1 wire (AP)","marketLine":null},{"id":"17df052ac397","clusterKey":"17df052ac397","claim":"Can Kevin Warsh Change the Federal Reserve?","claimUrl":"https://time.com/article/2026/09/19/can-kevin-warsh-change-the-federal-reserve-/","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["news.google.com","time.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers","marketLine":null},{"id":"b064f0260a1f","clusterKey":"b064f0260a1f","claim":"Three words from Kevin Warsh have Wall Street wondering how far the Fed will go with rate hikes","claimUrl":"https://startupfortune.com/kevin-warsh-has-markets-pricing-three-more-rate-hikes-through-june/","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["news.google.com","startupfortune.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers","marketLine":null},{"id":"f816eaa5f236","clusterKey":"f816eaa5f236","claim":"The Fed Just Hiked Rates for the First Time Since 2023. Here Is What That Means for the AUD, Gold and the ASX","claimUrl":"https://memeburn.com/fed-rate-hike-bitcoin-76k/","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["news.google.com","memeburn.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["document","entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers","marketLine":null},{"id":"3a796333851f","clusterKey":"3a796333851f","claim":"What’s Next for Stocks After the US Fed Rate Hike","claimUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijgFBVV95cUxPQ3RSckZOUzVESzdiWGduU1FhLWRYNUIxS29TWC1Ic0RJS0V5RGg4bUQxQVl3NGFDdW9GVXU0dVQ3UElrS0MyLTc3LXg3eVRRNzZWRS00MXNqYVp4YWh5QjR6V00zRzRmYS1WeFV2WXY3cXVBYTVrS0tOemxjLWczUUxVeTd5Y1ZCQV8zWnBn?oc=5","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","independentOrigins":1,"origins":["news.google.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-21","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"1 separate publisher","marketLine":null},{"id":"b121b35ed0b3","clusterKey":"b121b35ed0b3","claim":"Why the US Fed Rate Hike Spells Bad News for Private Equity Exits","claimUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxPV1dEeVJVWF81MEQ5cnh0ckdfcWVOLUpsREpZdGJkeWk4dkZRdk5GRHN2cnpmY1ZxeTNVckFFbjMtN3NFOGF3STlwZ203NWRDb2EzR3RnQnpMM1VRdV9JcWh4RHJ2enI1YW1EdDRnZzZ6QW1LQVdUYy1CeWU1TTBPaGQ3Q05OUVQ3bDlaQXpsUDNHWU1G?oc=5","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","independentOrigins":1,"origins":["news.google.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-21","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"1 separate publisher","marketLine":null}]},"primaryDocuments":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[],"key":"primaryDocuments","heading":"What the issuing authorities publish","undatedCount":0,"undatedNote":null},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","heading":"What prediction markets price","state":"priced","joinPerformed":true,"eventSlug":"fed-rate-decision","counts":{"eventReceipts":6,"entityCaptures":0,"served":6,"live":6,"expired":0},"newestPriceStamp":"2026-09-26","venueStatusNote":null,"note":"6 market questions ride this record, newest price stamp Sep 26, 2026. A price is the venue's number, cited as one outside sensor and graded against how reality resolved; it is never a probability of ours.","rows":[{"question":"Fed rate cut by July 2027 meeting?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/fed-rate-cut-by-july-2027-meeting","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":44.5,"pricedAt":"2026-09-26","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-08-08","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/fed-emergency-rate-cut-before-2027","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":2.45,"pricedAt":"2026-09-24","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-01-01","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-december-2026-meeting-20260729232808633","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.45,"pricedAt":"2026-09-26","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-09","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-december-2026-meeting-20260729232808635","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":27.5,"pricedAt":"2026-09-26","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-09","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/fed-rate-hike-by-october-2026-meeting","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":99.95,"pricedAt":"2026-09-16","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-09","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":96.6,"pricedAt":"2026-09-26","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-01-01","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"}],"basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred"},"refereeGrades":{"key":"refereeGrades","heading":"How our cited sensor has scored","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the per-subject accuracy check","grades":[],"note":"We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Fed rate decisions has been scored, so this section can say nothing about it on its own. The scoring anyone can read is at https://sigb.ai/api/calibration-data.","where":"https://sigb.ai/api/calibration-data"},"theRecord":{"label":"The record itself","basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 9 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"],"state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":274,"outlets":151,"activeDays":9,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-09-18","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-05-24","end":"2026-09-18","activeDays":9,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 9 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":1115,"outlets":158,"activeDays":55,"since":"2026-04-14","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-09-22","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["auto"],"asserts":{"rate-decision":255,"econ-release":57,"price-threshold":30,"utterance":29,"meeting-visit":16,"launch-release":14},"assertionCoverage":0.401,"movesWith":[{"name":"interest rates","together":713,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"inflation","together":527,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"treasury","together":377,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"ai","together":245,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"crypto","together":233,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"cpi","together":222,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"bitcoin","together":212,"sharedDomains":["auto"]},{"name":"central bank","together":193,"sharedDomains":["auto"]}],"movesWithLabels":["interest rates","inflation","treasury","ai","crypto","cpi","bitcoin","central bank"],"provenance":"curated","key":"theRecord","heading":"What we have collected","status":"measured","basisNote":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting"},"ourAttention":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":-68,"reading":"Our coverage of Fed rate decisions is 68% below its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":118,"eventMentions":5642,"periods":[{"period":"2027-07","mentions":5},{"period":"2027-06","mentions":51},{"period":"2027-04","mentions":5},{"period":"2027-03","mentions":5},{"period":"2027","mentions":467},{"period":"2026-12","mentions":445},{"period":"2026-10","mentions":448},{"period":"2026-09","mentions":553}],"key":"ourAttention","heading":"How closely we are watching","state":"measured","directionWord":"steady","glyph":"→"},"ourRead":{"key":"ourRead","heading":"Our read","basisNote":"our analysis of this record's own dated sections; ours, and labeled ours — never a forecast, and never a probability of ours","asOf":"2026-09-26","firstParty":{"state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so this record carries no document from an issuing authority. That is unmeasured, not a clean bill."},"corroboratedNow":{"state":"measured","count":7,"text":"Independent sources agree on 7 things about Fed rate decisions in the current window: “Fed proposes reserve limits, capital standards for stablecoin issuers under GENIUS Act” (12 separate publishers · 1 wire (Reuters), earliest Sep 24, 2026); “Federal Reserve official says inflation persistence led her to support interest rate hike” (5 separate publishers · 1 wire (AP), earliest Sep 20, 2026), and 5 more on the record."},"singleSource":{"state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 8 recorded changes for Fed rate decisions, the most recent on Sep 26, 2026 — each one a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},"divergence":{"state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?” at 0.45% (polymarket, Sep 26, 2026), while our own record holds 7 claims carried by three or more separate publishers. The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},"heldAsProvenance":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."},"inputsDropped":[{"input":"5 corroborated claim rows","why":"shown on the claims section rather than repeated in the read"},{"input":"single-source reporting","why":"no press-claims ledger exists for this subject; the corroborated feed does not publish uncleared tiers"},{"input":"entity priced captures","why":"our own sweep captured no priced row for this subject; the market rows here come from the event's venue receipts"}],"synthesis":null,"synthesisNote":"No synthesis is written for this record. A synthesis is our own paragraph over corroborated claims with receipts; until it is computed, the clauses above are the whole read and nothing is templated to look like one.","basis":[{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Fed proposes reserve limits, capital standards for stablecoin issuers under GENIUS Act","asOf":"2026-09-24"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Federal Reserve official says inflation persistence led her to support interest rate hike","asOf":"2026-09-20"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Can Kevin Warsh Change the Federal Reserve?","asOf":"2026-09-20"},{"kind":"market sensor","text":"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting? — 0.45% (polymarket)","asOf":"2026-09-26"}],"clauses":[{"key":"firstParty","label":"What the issuing authorities say","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so this record carries no document from an issuing authority. That is unmeasured, not a clean bill."},{"key":"corroboratedNow","label":"What independent sources agree on","state":"measured","count":7,"text":"Independent sources agree on 7 things about Fed rate decisions in the current window: “Fed proposes reserve limits, capital standards for stablecoin issuers under GENIUS Act” (12 separate publishers · 1 wire (Reuters), earliest Sep 24, 2026); “Federal Reserve official says inflation persistence led her to support interest rate hike” (5 separate publishers · 1 wire (AP), earliest Sep 20, 2026), and 5 more on the record."},{"key":"singleSource","label":"What rests on one source","state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},{"key":"contradicted","label":"What contradicts","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},{"key":"changedSinceLastRead","label":"What changed","state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 8 recorded changes for Fed rate decisions, the most recent on Sep 26, 2026 — each one a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},{"key":"divergence","label":"The outside sensor, beside our record","state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?” at 0.45% (polymarket, Sep 26, 2026), while our own record holds 7 claims carried by three or more separate publishers. The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},{"key":"heldAsProvenance","label":"Held as provenance","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"states":{"firstParty":"cannot-measure","corroboratedNow":"measured","singleSource":"cannot-measure","contradicted":"cannot-measure","changedSinceLastRead":"measured","divergence":"measured","heldAsProvenance":"cannot-measure"}},"changeLog":{"key":"changeLog","heading":"What changed, and when","state":"recorded","started":null,"note":"The ledger holds 8 recorded changes for Fed rate decisions, the most recent on Sep 26, 2026 — each one a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact.","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-09-22T14:53:31.501988+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-13T14:49:35.275603+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-09-22T14:53:31.501988+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-13T14:49:35.275603+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"steady","at":"2026-09-24T14:57:43.912252+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-22T14:53:31.501988+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-09-24T14:57:43.912252+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-22T14:53:31.501988+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-24T14:57:43.912252+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-24T14:57:43.912252+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"steady","at":"2026-09-26T14:52:38.279544+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-09-26T14:52:38.279544+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00"}]},"verify":{"key":"verify","heading":"Verify it yourself","state":"measured","rest":"curl -s https://sigb.ai/api/truth/fed-rate-decision","mcp":"curl -s https://sigb.ai/api/mcp -X POST -H 'content-type: application/json' \\\n  -d '{\"jsonrpc\":\"2.0\",\"id\":1,\"method\":\"tools/call\",\"params\":{\"name\":\"get_truth_object\",\"arguments\":{\"topic\":\"fed-rate-decision\"}}}'","resource":null,"page":null,"note":"This page, GET /api/truth/fed-rate-decision and the get_truth_object tool are assembled by one builder, so what you fetch is what you are reading."},"limits":{"key":"limits","heading":"What this record does not tell you","state":"measured","derived":[{"section":"refereeGrades","text":"How our cited sensor has scored: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the per-subject accuracy check. We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Fed rate decisions has"},{"section":"ourRead.firstParty","text":"What the issuing authorities say: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the first-party read. No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so this record carries no document from an issuing authority. That is unmeasured, not a clean bill."},{"section":"ourRead.singleSource","text":"What rests on one source: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the single-source tier. We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},{"section":"ourRead.contradicted","text":"What contradicts: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is no polarity-comparable pair. We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},{"section":"ourRead.heldAsProvenance","text":"Held as provenance: we could not measure it. No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"standing":[],"note":"5 sections on this record came back \"we could not look\". Each is named below with the pass that failed, generated from the section's own state rather than typed here."},"provenance":{"key":"provenance","heading":"Where this record comes from","state":"measured","asOf":"2026-09-26","generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:26:29.232977+00:00","recordVersion":"sb.tr-a877da39","releaseId":null,"builtAt":null,"releaseState":"cannot-measure","releaseNote":"the release manifest is a deploy-time asset (/release.json), stamped on the served response, never bundled into the record at build time","slaRow":null,"slaNote":"No freshness clock is registered for this record's own inputs yet; the sections above each carry the date they speak for."},"record":{"schema":"sb.truth-record.v1","slug":"fed-rate-decision","kind":"event","subjectState":"active","tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"computed":"standard","served":"standard","passed":["at least 3 independent publishers on a joined claim","no unresolved contradiction on the record","at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read"],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"tierChangedAt":"2026-09-07","previousTier":"standard","subject":{"label":"Fed rate decisions","aliases":["fed chair","fed cuts","fed decision","fed hikes","fed holds","fed meeting","fed pause","fed raises","fed rate","fed rate decisions","fed-rate-decision","federal reserve"],"eventKey":"fed-rate-decision","entityKeys":["fed rate decisions","fed-rate-decision","federal reserve"],"mergedSlugs":[],"eventSlugs":["fed-rate-decision"]},"definition":{"whatThisIs":"Fed rate decisions is an event Signal Bureau maintains a record of (rate decision). The record joins 274 document(s) from 151 outlet(s) in the corpus.","whyTracked":"Registered in the publication registry, which is deny-by-default: a subject is served only once it is registered.","coverageSince":"2026-05-24","coverageSinceBasis":"first counted document (event-graph)","coverageSinceState":"measured","coverageSinceReason":null,"coverageSinceAlternates":[{"date":"2026-07-16","basis":"registered in the publication registry"}],"notCovered":["No probability of ours: this record reports what sources and markets say, and grades them. It does not forecast.","No primary-source layer is registered for this subject, so no first-party document is read for it."],"tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"computed":"standard","served":"standard","passed":["at least 3 independent publishers on a joined claim","no unresolved contradiction on the record","at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read"],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"state":"templated-from-structure","reason":""},"claims":[{"clusterKey":"8d749576d475","claim":"Fed proposes reserve limits, capital standards for stablecoin issuers under GENIUS Act","claimUrl":"https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/09/24/u-s-federal-reserve-moves-on-proposals-to-implement-genius-act-for-stablecoins","tier":{"id":"strong","label":"Cross-source agreement","meaning":"Four or more separate publishers carried this. Wire copies and republished copies are collapsed first — but publishers all working from one official statement still count separately, so this is agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":0,"countRule":"4 or more publishers"},"independentOrigins":12,"independentCount":11,"independenceBasis":"11 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates and 1 portal fallback(s) (news.google.com) were excluded; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"Reuters","wire":true},{"origin":"bankingjournal.aba.com","wire":false},{"origin":"coindesk.com","wire":false},{"origin":"cointelegraph.com","wire":false},{"origin":"cryptobriefing.com","wire":false},{"origin":"cryptotimes.io","wire":false},{"origin":"decrypt.co","wire":false},{"origin":"financefeeds.com","wire":false},{"origin":"news.google.com","wire":false},{"origin":"pymnts.com","wire":false},{"origin":"startupfortune.com","wire":false},{"origin":"theblock.co","wire":false}],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-24","receipts":[{"origin":"Reuters","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxPY25jeWJ2LVJIWmg5cThieHN1M3RDYjNGcGRyR19sNVN0cHBXRXlCUmEzbS1Zb3ZsNnhSM3VmcFQ4QkUzNG1VRXpkTTF2elFfNDhYa19ha0pJZlNpRHFhUXIwcE83ckdBM01Sc3FvRW1hZEY1MkR1RF9ZNFVDUTZkTmRhRXhJanlzRFF2OTdLaWZ4dWJjejJHR0FKRVoycGgzaklV?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":true,"redirect":true},{"origin":"bankingjournal.aba.com","url":"https://bankingjournal.aba.com/2026/09/fed-proposes-rules-for-genius-act-implementation/","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"coindesk.com","url":"https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/09/24/u-s-federal-reserve-moves-on-proposals-to-implement-genius-act-for-stablecoins","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"cointelegraph.com","url":"https://cointelegraph.com/news/fed-proposes-new-capital-redemption-rules-for-stablecoin-issuers?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"cryptobriefing.com","url":"https://cryptobriefing.com/fed-proposes-new-stablecoin-rules-under-genius-act/","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"cryptotimes.io","url":"https://www.cryptotimes.io/2026/09/25/federal-reserve-proposes-stablecoin-rules-under-genius-act/","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"decrypt.co","url":"https://decrypt.co/379274/federal-reserve-unveils-stablecoin-rules-on-reserves-and-capital","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"financefeeds.com","url":"https://financefeeds.com/federal-reserve-proposes-new-rules-for-banks-issuing-payment-stablecoins-under-genius-act/","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"news.google.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigAFBVV95cUxNdGR1ODJLakZCd095elYxM2tvTmdaN21lejdZUkNxSHFYWGwxTWpkXzJGXzhPd0dITWszb1F6NlAtWjdCTVBpSXJoMzBpWDZmZkNOLXoxbzVMV3lIZFVZRTMzenpaU20takVXNWlRRkJzMlBTRkczZHNqRkxkVzZDSQ?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":true},{"origin":"pymnts.com","url":"https://www.pymnts.com/cryptocurrency/2026/fed-proposes-stablecoin-reserve-and-capital-rules-under-genius-act/","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"startupfortune.com","url":"https://startupfortune.com/federal-reserve-proposes-stablecoin-reserve-and-capital-rules-for-banks/","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"theblock.co","url":"https://www.theblock.co/news/regulation/2026-09-24-fed-proposes-reserve-limits-capital-standards-stablecoin-issuers-genius-act-416336","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"Reuters","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxPY25jeWJ2LVJIWmg5cThieHN1M3RDYjNGcGRyR19sNVN0cHBXRXlCUmEzbS1Zb3ZsNnhSM3VmcFQ4QkUzNG1VRXpkTTF2elFfNDhYa19ha0pJZlNpRHFhUXIwcE83ckdBM01Sc3FvRW1hZEY1MkR1RF9ZNFVDUTZkTmRhRXhJanlzRFF2OTdLaWZ4dWJjejJHR0FKRVoycGgzaklV?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":true,"redirect":true},{"origin":"bankingjournal.aba.com","url":"https://bankingjournal.aba.com/2026/09/fed-proposes-rules-for-genius-act-implementation/","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"coindesk.com","url":"https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/09/24/u-s-federal-reserve-moves-on-proposals-to-implement-genius-act-for-stablecoins","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"cointelegraph.com","url":"https://cointelegraph.com/news/fed-proposes-new-capital-redemption-rules-for-stablecoin-issuers?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"cryptobriefing.com","url":"https://cryptobriefing.com/fed-proposes-new-stablecoin-rules-under-genius-act/","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"cryptotimes.io","url":"https://www.cryptotimes.io/2026/09/25/federal-reserve-proposes-stablecoin-rules-under-genius-act/","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"decrypt.co","url":"https://decrypt.co/379274/federal-reserve-unveils-stablecoin-rules-on-reserves-and-capital","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"financefeeds.com","url":"https://financefeeds.com/federal-reserve-proposes-new-rules-for-banks-issuing-payment-stablecoins-under-genius-act/","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"news.google.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigAFBVV95cUxNdGR1ODJLakZCd095elYxM2tvTmdaN21lejdZUkNxSHFYWGwxTWpkXzJGXzhPd0dITWszb1F6NlAtWjdCTVBpSXJoMzBpWDZmZkNOLXoxbzVMV3lIZFVZRTMzenpaU20takVXNWlRRkJzMlBTRkczZHNqRkxkVzZDSQ?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":true},{"origin":"pymnts.com","url":"https://www.pymnts.com/cryptocurrency/2026/fed-proposes-stablecoin-reserve-and-capital-rules-under-genius-act/","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"startupfortune.com","url":"https://startupfortune.com/federal-reserve-proposes-stablecoin-reserve-and-capital-rules-for-banks/","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"theblock.co","url":"https://www.theblock.co/news/regulation/2026-09-24-fed-proposes-reserve-limits-capital-standards-stablecoin-issuers-genius-act-416336","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":12,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["federal reserve"],"state":"corroborated"},{"clusterKey":"a60d4a8f2aee","claim":"Federal Reserve official says inflation persistence led her to support interest rate hike","claimUrl":"https://www.independent.co.uk/news/donald-trump-great-recession-treasury-washington-rsm-b3053110.html","tier":{"id":"strong","label":"Cross-source agreement","meaning":"Four or more separate publishers carried this. Wire copies and republished copies are collapsed first — but publishers all working from one official statement still count separately, so this is agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":0,"countRule":"4 or more publishers"},"independentOrigins":5,"independentCount":4,"independenceBasis":"4 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates and 1 portal fallback(s) (news.google.com) were excluded; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"AP","wire":true},{"origin":"ABC News","wire":false},{"origin":"independent.co.uk","wire":false},{"origin":"Commentaries","wire":false},{"origin":"news.google.com","wire":false}],"wires":["AP"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","receipts":[{"origin":"AP","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiogFBVV95cUxQZ3dEZVlWRUlJSG5hc2RlT2ZyYkpFME5teENRcGMtdmhUTDdDbVU4cENBSXRmSTZVblJPYU54eHZtb2lHOWNBQ1FfMUM5MGE0Q3ZPM3p3WEc0clVqU2hWdHFIbXk2dFU1T1RsYkhmMTNIblpmLXRnNWdJLUZiemM1UXNVZGd2d2hDbWJ2ZUNJX3dvMUgtMThNSDZwbUpCZkNhTGc?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-22","wire":true,"redirect":true},{"origin":"ABC News","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiogFBVV95cUxPdkJ1aGZOVHowUUNJZmxGNFR5RFgzMGZEbkFVQ0lMdUs4TlFhenV3WmZPRjZnREFXVzJRWVNiVVp2V3M2X0dia3JKUWRFcmJVdDlGWm0zem5fbk9MdnpVWThwT3IyVDAwVjNOQ1JzeEJFR1RORVR4ZjVsSkFWVDV5NU1GY0hmajdHMmZtaDJxSjJwSXMzaWowbU9HMlFaak1KR0HSAacBQVVfeXFMUFc0UzNFTTFSX2NTaWVHT1pncHJoMDdCS0x1czIxbFJHeUszT3ZSelhvX2RmeXk1SjVYM3NlNTZoZjRpN2Rhb245bG8wX3BwQVBjR0VvNm45UDE2dGRKN2ZQTmZwbEJ2d1pwZHVVRE4zZW1nMnZIbnZMMGktYWxuT0F0MmNhdmxMTUpTQzNjcjVrelczWnZERVQ5SEFGMGI1NnlLTmtNVkE?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":true},{"origin":"independent.co.uk","url":"https://www.independent.co.uk/news/donald-trump-great-recession-treasury-washington-rsm-b3053110.html","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"Commentaries","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiogFBVV95cUxQbEZnOWtvYm5TZ0J0aFRZYVNVVUNqdjdoR0pBQ3NjZFVtbHB0WHRraHZjYkFlT3Q1cXdFTUFCRUp3OEt4djlWUjA3SXlabVFkY25LR0E1SVFBVklBaWhRTmM2bkFlbDdCYmExei1pMHFGeTZucndwRG9SUTdtQ2tLUFZuNXUyMXd6QU9FZWlNTEVZSXBkdWt6cUhZbmU4aVFDT3c?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-22","wire":false,"redirect":true},{"origin":"news.google.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijAFBVV95cUxNa0hlOHpLbWRvYS1Cc0x6dnRESV8waktYOGNaVkxnYXRYMEpSTlVKTXF1WEhCYU1YM1dCeGx3SnZZeXEyNV9QTjF6b0RiSTRxemgtQktkM3B0ZFktR2FSMUZRWkViZ2k3bk1ORzVmZG1jbXdQNVNPeVVkaXdZNVZTYVNVbWdGZ0laY1AtUw?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":true}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"AP","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiogFBVV95cUxQZ3dEZVlWRUlJSG5hc2RlT2ZyYkpFME5teENRcGMtdmhUTDdDbVU4cENBSXRmSTZVblJPYU54eHZtb2lHOWNBQ1FfMUM5MGE0Q3ZPM3p3WEc0clVqU2hWdHFIbXk2dFU1T1RsYkhmMTNIblpmLXRnNWdJLUZiemM1UXNVZGd2d2hDbWJ2ZUNJX3dvMUgtMThNSDZwbUpCZkNhTGc?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-22","wire":true,"redirect":true},{"origin":"ABC News","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiogFBVV95cUxPdkJ1aGZOVHowUUNJZmxGNFR5RFgzMGZEbkFVQ0lMdUs4TlFhenV3WmZPRjZnREFXVzJRWVNiVVp2V3M2X0dia3JKUWRFcmJVdDlGWm0zem5fbk9MdnpVWThwT3IyVDAwVjNOQ1JzeEJFR1RORVR4ZjVsSkFWVDV5NU1GY0hmajdHMmZtaDJxSjJwSXMzaWowbU9HMlFaak1KR0HSAacBQVVfeXFMUFc0UzNFTTFSX2NTaWVHT1pncHJoMDdCS0x1czIxbFJHeUszT3ZSelhvX2RmeXk1SjVYM3NlNTZoZjRpN2Rhb245bG8wX3BwQVBjR0VvNm45UDE2dGRKN2ZQTmZwbEJ2d1pwZHVVRE4zZW1nMnZIbnZMMGktYWxuT0F0MmNhdmxMTUpTQzNjcjVrelczWnZERVQ5SEFGMGI1NnlLTmtNVkE?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":true},{"origin":"independent.co.uk","url":"https://www.independent.co.uk/news/donald-trump-great-recession-treasury-washington-rsm-b3053110.html","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"Commentaries","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiogFBVV95cUxQbEZnOWtvYm5TZ0J0aFRZYVNVVUNqdjdoR0pBQ3NjZFVtbHB0WHRraHZjYkFlT3Q1cXdFTUFCRUp3OEt4djlWUjA3SXlabVFkY25LR0E1SVFBVklBaWhRTmM2bkFlbDdCYmExei1pMHFGeTZucndwRG9SUTdtQ2tLUFZuNXUyMXd6QU9FZWlNTEVZSXBkdWt6cUhZbmU4aVFDT3c?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-22","wire":false,"redirect":true},{"origin":"news.google.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijAFBVV95cUxNa0hlOHpLbWRvYS1Cc0x6dnRESV8waktYOGNaVkxnYXRYMEpSTlVKTXF1WEhCYU1YM1dCeGx3SnZZeXEyNV9QTjF6b0RiSTRxemgtQktkM3B0ZFktR2FSMUZRWkViZ2k3bk1ORzVmZG1jbXdQNVNPeVVkaXdZNVZTYVNVbWdGZ0laY1AtUw?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":true}],"originsTotal":5,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["federal reserve"],"state":"corroborated"},{"clusterKey":"17df052ac397","claim":"Can Kevin Warsh Change the Federal Reserve?","claimUrl":"https://time.com/article/2026/09/19/can-kevin-warsh-change-the-federal-reserve-/","tier":{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","meaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":1,"countRule":"2 or 3 publishers"},"independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":1,"independenceBasis":"1 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates and 1 portal fallback(s) (news.google.com) were excluded; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"news.google.com","wire":false},{"origin":"time.com","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","receipts":[{"origin":"news.google.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihwFBVV95cUxPWEZKeEhvcWhCeDF4eDlxNnJ5OXhwaGtQYjFtbFBFWVc0Sl9qRzRSU0t2OC1BdEZSangxWnpEbWFkWVNNWXZYZzFVaVpUaDRrQ0lpTU9TNUNWV09YNlV2R0FRTGl1SE5YanpFcWZ2WFY1RFd5SVhfZ0JGMVBqekxnWmdKRzJWQXc?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":true},{"origin":"time.com","url":"https://time.com/article/2026/09/19/can-kevin-warsh-change-the-federal-reserve-/","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"news.google.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihwFBVV95cUxPWEZKeEhvcWhCeDF4eDlxNnJ5OXhwaGtQYjFtbFBFWVc0Sl9qRzRSU0t2OC1BdEZSangxWnpEbWFkWVNNWXZYZzFVaVpUaDRrQ0lpTU9TNUNWV09YNlV2R0FRTGl1SE5YanpFcWZ2WFY1RFd5SVhfZ0JGMVBqekxnWmdKRzJWQXc?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":true},{"origin":"time.com","url":"https://time.com/article/2026/09/19/can-kevin-warsh-change-the-federal-reserve-/","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":2,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["federal reserve"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"b064f0260a1f","claim":"Three words from Kevin Warsh have Wall Street wondering how far the Fed will go with rate hikes","claimUrl":"https://startupfortune.com/kevin-warsh-has-markets-pricing-three-more-rate-hikes-through-june/","tier":{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","meaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":1,"countRule":"2 or 3 publishers"},"independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":1,"independenceBasis":"1 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates and 1 portal fallback(s) (news.google.com) were excluded; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"news.google.com","wire":false},{"origin":"startupfortune.com","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","receipts":[{"origin":"news.google.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMizAFBVV95cUxNSXdfWXNIMEY2YkdDSGh2cWVONW03aXdjUFFuUGV5cmswQnNjQlgzNTJTWTBiM3ZnZmY4Wl95MmRYOGFyeDB6YjJwTTdDdk94QU1jendxcHZxemF2dExzdFh1WWwzeE0tMTdnWUFLWUhqeTdUMm9ORG53UGVoaU1zSVhVU3hkV1RNaDNqNmNjMVo2VUVteXR0NnE1dHZUZGo2WUZUMWNYdzlnR3FGcWNrRlhqU0hUX21VUUI4aE50bUFmb2tVdDZMMldYNG8?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":true},{"origin":"startupfortune.com","url":"https://startupfortune.com/kevin-warsh-has-markets-pricing-three-more-rate-hikes-through-june/","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"news.google.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMizAFBVV95cUxNSXdfWXNIMEY2YkdDSGh2cWVONW03aXdjUFFuUGV5cmswQnNjQlgzNTJTWTBiM3ZnZmY4Wl95MmRYOGFyeDB6YjJwTTdDdk94QU1jendxcHZxemF2dExzdFh1WWwzeE0tMTdnWUFLWUhqeTdUMm9ORG53UGVoaU1zSVhVU3hkV1RNaDNqNmNjMVo2VUVteXR0NnE1dHZUZGo2WUZUMWNYdzlnR3FGcWNrRlhqU0hUX21VUUI4aE50bUFmb2tVdDZMMldYNG8?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":true},{"origin":"startupfortune.com","url":"https://startupfortune.com/kevin-warsh-has-markets-pricing-three-more-rate-hikes-through-june/","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":2,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["federal reserve"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"f816eaa5f236","claim":"The Fed Just Hiked Rates for the First Time Since 2023. Here Is What That Means for the AUD, Gold and the ASX","claimUrl":"https://memeburn.com/fed-rate-hike-bitcoin-76k/","tier":{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","meaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":1,"countRule":"2 or 3 publishers"},"independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":1,"independenceBasis":"1 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates and 1 portal fallback(s) (news.google.com) were excluded; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"news.google.com","wire":false},{"origin":"memeburn.com","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","receipts":[{"origin":"news.google.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxOaXFiaTVqR2VYa2tJanRBZ3dZbWFwdl8zdWFKYmhZbWNSNUxZV01RM3cxTUVMSkV4MUREMUZjRS1WR1hSZEZySU5lVTRETmIzX21WZFJ5S2xPLXNYN0ZHSGtQRC1Cc1dNWmdpUU5mblpOMWF5VzBBUkc2Y0Rfcy1iOUxjSHdUNFNBblpud1hxTGJTbUM2U0ZVclJEWlZyX1VGM2l3?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":true},{"origin":"memeburn.com","url":"https://memeburn.com/fed-rate-hike-bitcoin-76k/","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"news.google.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxOaXFiaTVqR2VYa2tJanRBZ3dZbWFwdl8zdWFKYmhZbWNSNUxZV01RM3cxTUVMSkV4MUREMUZjRS1WR1hSZEZySU5lVTRETmIzX21WZFJ5S2xPLXNYN0ZHSGtQRC1Cc1dNWmdpUU5mblpOMWF5VzBBUkc2Y0Rfcy1iOUxjSHdUNFNBblpud1hxTGJTbUM2U0ZVclJEWlZyX1VGM2l3?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":true},{"origin":"memeburn.com","url":"https://memeburn.com/fed-rate-hike-bitcoin-76k/","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":2,"subjectDocuments":[{"t":"The Fed Just Hiked for the First Time Since 2023. Here’s Why Bitcoin Barely Moved","src":"Memeburn","u":"https://memeburn.com/the-fed-just-hiked-for-the-first-time-since-2023-heres-why-bitcoin-barely-moved/","pd":"2026-09-21"}],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["document","entity"],"matchedKeys":["federal reserve"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"3a796333851f","claim":"What’s Next for Stocks After the US Fed Rate Hike","claimUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijgFBVV95cUxPQ3RSckZOUzVESzdiWGduU1FhLWRYNUIxS29TWC1Ic0RJS0V5RGg4bUQxQVl3NGFDdW9GVXU0dVQ3UElrS0MyLTc3LXg3eVRRNzZWRS00MXNqYVp4YWh5QjR6V00zRzRmYS1WeFV2WXY3cXVBYTVrS0tOemxjLWczUUxVeTd5Y1ZCQV8zWnBn?oc=5","tier":{"id":"weak","label":"Single source","meaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","rank":3,"countRule":"1 publisher"},"independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":0,"independenceBasis":"0 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates and 1 portal fallback(s) (news.google.com) were excluded; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"news.google.com","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-21","receipts":[{"origin":"news.google.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijgFBVV95cUxPQ3RSckZOUzVESzdiWGduU1FhLWRYNUIxS29TWC1Ic0RJS0V5RGg4bUQxQVl3NGFDdW9GVXU0dVQ3UElrS0MyLTc3LXg3eVRRNzZWRS00MXNqYVp4YWh5QjR6V00zRzRmYS1WeFV2WXY3cXVBYTVrS0tOemxjLWczUUxVeTd5Y1ZCQV8zWnBn?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":true}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"news.google.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijgFBVV95cUxPQ3RSckZOUzVESzdiWGduU1FhLWRYNUIxS29TWC1Ic0RJS0V5RGg4bUQxQVl3NGFDdW9GVXU0dVQ3UElrS0MyLTc3LXg3eVRRNzZWRS00MXNqYVp4YWh5QjR6V00zRzRmYS1WeFV2WXY3cXVBYTVrS0tOemxjLWczUUxVeTd5Y1ZCQV8zWnBn?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":true}],"originsTotal":1,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt-redirect","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["federal reserve"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"b121b35ed0b3","claim":"Why the US Fed Rate Hike Spells Bad News for Private Equity Exits","claimUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxPV1dEeVJVWF81MEQ5cnh0ckdfcWVOLUpsREpZdGJkeWk4dkZRdk5GRHN2cnpmY1ZxeTNVckFFbjMtN3NFOGF3STlwZ203NWRDb2EzR3RnQnpMM1VRdV9JcWh4RHJ2enI1YW1EdDRnZzZ6QW1LQVdUYy1CeWU1TTBPaGQ3Q05OUVQ3bDlaQXpsUDNHWU1G?oc=5","tier":{"id":"weak","label":"Single source","meaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","rank":3,"countRule":"1 publisher"},"independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":0,"independenceBasis":"0 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates and 1 portal fallback(s) (news.google.com) were excluded; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"news.google.com","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-21","receipts":[{"origin":"news.google.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxPV1dEeVJVWF81MEQ5cnh0ckdfcWVOLUpsREpZdGJkeWk4dkZRdk5GRHN2cnpmY1ZxeTNVckFFbjMtN3NFOGF3STlwZ203NWRDb2EzR3RnQnpMM1VRdV9JcWh4RHJ2enI1YW1EdDRnZzZ6QW1LQVdUYy1CeWU1TTBPaGQ3Q05OUVQ3bDlaQXpsUDNHWU1G?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":true}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"news.google.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxPV1dEeVJVWF81MEQ5cnh0ckdfcWVOLUpsREpZdGJkeWk4dkZRdk5GRHN2cnpmY1ZxeTNVckFFbjMtN3NFOGF3STlwZ203NWRDb2EzR3RnQnpMM1VRdV9JcWh4RHJ2enI1YW1EdDRnZzZ6QW1LQVdUYy1CeWU1TTBPaGQ3Q05OUVQ3bDlaQXpsUDNHWU1G?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":true}],"originsTotal":1,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt-redirect","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["federal reserve"],"state":"single-source"}],"primaryDocuments":[],"marketSensor":{"state":"priced","reason":"","questions":[{"question":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-december-2026-meeting-20260729232808635","pricePct":27.5,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-26","endDate":"2026-12-09","venueStatus":"live","boundVia":"event:fed-rate-decision"},{"question":"Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027","pricePct":44.3,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-26","seenBasis":"the entity's priced capture carries no per-row timestamp; this is the corpus-evidence shard's own build date","endDate":null,"venueStatus":"confirming","boundVia":"entity:federal reserve"},{"question":"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537","pricePct":64.5,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-26","seenBasis":"the entity's priced capture carries no per-row timestamp; this is the corpus-evidence shard's own build date","endDate":null,"venueStatus":"confirming","boundVia":"entity:federal reserve"},{"question":"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-december-2026-meeting-20260729232808633","pricePct":0.45,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-26","endDate":"2026-12-09","venueStatus":"live","boundVia":"event:fed-rate-decision"},{"question":"Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decisions-sepdec","pricePct":42.5,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-26","seenBasis":"the entity's priced capture carries no per-row timestamp; this is the corpus-evidence shard's own build date","endDate":null,"venueStatus":"confirming","boundVia":"entity:federal reserve"},{"question":"Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026","pricePct":96.6,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-26","endDate":"2027-01-01","venueStatus":"live","boundVia":"event:fed-rate-decision"},{"question":"Fed rate cut by July 2027 meeting?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/fed-rate-cut-by-july-2027-meeting","pricePct":44.5,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-26","endDate":"2027-08-08","venueStatus":"live","boundVia":"event:fed-rate-decision"},{"question":"Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/fed-emergency-rate-cut-before-2027","pricePct":2.45,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-24","endDate":"2027-01-01","venueStatus":"live","boundVia":"event:fed-rate-decision"}],"venue":"polymarket","priceAsOf":"2026-09-26","dropped":1,"note":"prices are a sensor we cite and grade, never a probability of ours (docs/decisions/20260817 Not a Forecasting Shop)"},"refereeGrades":[{"question":"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?","publishedAt":"2026-04-13","gradedAt":"2026-05-03","outcome":"incorrect","confidence":"HIGH"},{"question":"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?","publishedAt":"2026-04-13","gradedAt":"2026-05-03","outcome":"incorrect","confidence":"HIGH"},{"question":"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?","publishedAt":"2026-04-13","gradedAt":"2026-05-03","outcome":"incorrect","confidence":"HIGH"}],"theRecord":{"state":"measured","reason":"","documents":274,"outlets":151,"activeDays":9,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","lastSeen":"2026-09-18","assertionMix":{"rate-decision":167,"econ-release":8,"meeting-visit":5,"launch-release":4,"price-threshold":4,"utterance":4},"countsBasis":"event-graph","receiptsOnRecord":12,"withheldFutureDated":0,"droppedInputs":10,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 9 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"ourAttention":{"state":"cannot-measure","level":null,"direction":"unknown","reason":"no attention series carries this subject — the entity-trends shard does not index it, so our own attention is UNKNOWN, not zero"},"ourRead":{"state":"measured","reason":"","corroboratedNow":[{"claim":"Fed proposes reserve limits, capital standards for stablecoin issuers under GENIUS Act","clusterKey":"8d749576d475","tier":"Cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":12,"independentCount":11,"earliestDate":"2026-09-24"},{"claim":"Federal Reserve official says inflation persistence led her to support interest rate hike","clusterKey":"a60d4a8f2aee","tier":"Cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":5,"independentCount":4,"earliestDate":"2026-09-20"}],"corroboratedCount":2,"singleSource":[{"claim":"Can Kevin Warsh Change the Federal Reserve?","clusterKey":"17df052ac397","tier":"Some cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":1,"earliestDate":"2026-09-20"},{"claim":"Three words from Kevin Warsh have Wall Street wondering how far the Fed will go with rate hikes","clusterKey":"b064f0260a1f","tier":"Some cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":1,"earliestDate":"2026-09-20"},{"claim":"The Fed Just Hiked Rates for the First Time Since 2023. Here Is What That Means for the AUD, Gold and the ASX","clusterKey":"f816eaa5f236","tier":"Some cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":1,"earliestDate":"2026-09-20"},{"claim":"What’s Next for Stocks After the US Fed Rate Hike","clusterKey":"3a796333851f","tier":"Single source","independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":0,"earliestDate":"2026-09-21"},{"claim":"Why the US Fed Rate Hike Spells Bad News for Private Equity Exits","clusterKey":"b121b35ed0b3","tier":"Single source","independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":0,"earliestDate":"2026-09-21"}],"singleSourceCount":5,"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","items":[],"reason":"no polarity-comparable pair — no two claims on this record share a typed actor and action class over the same proposition, so no contradiction can be judged"},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","reason":"","added":[],"removed":[],"tierMoves":[],"against":"2026-09-26"},"divergence":{"state":"measured","reason":"","sensor":{"question":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?","pricePct":27.5,"venue":"polymarket","seenAt":"2026-09-26"},"corroboratedClaims":2,"text":"The crowd prices “Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?” at 27.5% on polymarket (seen 2026-09-26), beside 2 independently corroborated claim(s) on this record. The price is a sensor we cite and grade, not a probability of ours."},"heldAsProvenance":[],"inputsDropped":[{"reason":"receipt hygiene dropped the row: it carries no title or no URL at all","title":"Federal Reserve official says inflation persistence led her to support interest rate hike"},{"reason":"receipt hygiene dropped the row: it carries no title or no URL at all","title":"Why the Fed Rate Hike Spells Bad News for Private Equity Exits"},{"reason":"receipt hygiene dropped the row: it carries no title or no URL at all","title":"The Fed raised rates and gold didn’t break: Here’s why"},{"reason":"receipt hygiene dropped the row: it carries no title or no URL at all","title":"Money Matters: Federal Reserve rate hike impact"},{"reason":"receipt hygiene dropped the row: it carries no title or no URL at all","title":"Federal Reserve rate hike reflects new world of sticky inflation and faster growth"},{"reason":"receipt hygiene dropped the row: it carries no title or no URL at all","title":"Federal Reserve official says fighting inflation likely to be ‘painful’"},{"reason":"receipt hygiene dropped the row: it carries no title or no URL at all","title":"Federal Reserve official says Iran war pushed her toward supporting rate hike"},{"reason":"receipt hygiene dropped the row: it carries no title or no URL at all","title":"Why the Federal Reserve is lifting rates now, and what it means"}],"synthesis":null,"synthesisState":"withheld-by-design — synthesis runs only at full tier behind the coherence and no-advice gates, which this builder does not run","basis":[{"artifact":"cross_domain/analysis/whats_true_latest.json","used":"claims, tiers, independent origins","state":"read"},{"artifact":"web/signal-bureau/lib/event_market_receipts.json","used":"market sensor (event side)","state":"priced"},{"artifact":"web/signal-bureau/lib/corpus_evidence.json","used":"receipts and priced captures (entity side)","state":"read"}]},"sectionStates":{"definition":{"state":"templated-from-structure","reason":""},"claims":{"state":"measured","reason":""},"primaryDocuments":{"state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no row in registry/truth_sources.yaml names this subject, so it has no registered primary-source layer"},"marketSensor":{"state":"priced","reason":""},"refereeGrades":{"state":"graded","reason":""},"theRecord":{"state":"measured","reason":""},"ourAttention":{"state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no attention series carries this subject — the entity-trends shard does not index it, so our own attention is UNKNOWN, not zero"},"ourRead":{"state":"measured","reason":""}},"currency":{"state":"current","asOf":"2026-09-18","basis":{"asOf":"2026-09-26","newestObservationAt":"2026-09-18","newestObservationBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","ageDays":8,"expectedCadenceDays":13,"cadenceBasis":"this record's own observed cadence — 9 active day(s) over a 118-day window","graceMultiple":1,"wallMultiple":3,"blindSources":[],"retiredAt":null,"recordState":"measured"},"sentence":"This record is current: the newest source item is from 2026-09-18, inside its expected cadence of about one item every 13 days."},"scope":{"state":"measured","reason":null,"countsBasis":"event-graph","countsWindow":{"from":"2026-05-24","to":"2026-09-18","activeDays":9,"documents":274,"outlets":151},"claimsWindow":{"from":"2026-09-20","to":"2026-09-26"},"coverageStart":{"state":"measured","date":"2026-05-24","basis":"first counted document (event-graph)","alternates":[{"date":"2026-07-16","basis":"registered in the publication registry"}],"reason":null},"retiredAt":null,"receipts":{"withReceipt":7,"total":7,"cannotMeasure":0},"claimTiers":[{"id":"strong","label":"Cross-source agreement","rank":0,"count":2},{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","rank":1,"count":3},{"id":"weak","label":"Single source","rank":3,"count":2}],"claimsShown":7,"claimsDropped":0,"claimsAtPublishedTiers":5,"publishedTiers":["strong","moderate"],"note":"This record's counts are the event-graph for this subject — 274 document(s) over 9 active day(s) from 2026-05-24 to 2026-09-18; its 7 claim(s) come from the corroboration run covering 2026-09-20 to 2026-09-26 and include every agreement tier (5 of them at the published tiers strong, moderate), so a cumulative archive total published on another surface counts a different set over a different window and is not expected to match this one. Coverage of this subject begins 2026-05-24 — first counted document (event-graph); other structures date it 2026-07-16 (registered in the publication registry)."},"limits":[{"section":"primaryDocuments","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no row in registry/truth_sources.yaml names this subject, so it has no registered primary-source layer"},{"section":"ourAttention","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no attention series carries this subject — the entity-trends shard does not index it, so our own attention is UNKNOWN, not zero"}],"verify":{"rest":"GET /api/truth/fed-rate-decision","mcp":"get_truth_record {\"slug\": \"fed-rate-decision\"}"},"claimsMeta":{"state":"measured","reason":"","dropped":0},"primaryDocumentsMeta":{"state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no row in registry/truth_sources.yaml names this subject, so it has no registered primary-source layer"},"refereeGradesMeta":{"state":"graded","reason":"","counts":{"published":142,"graded":3,"outcomes":{"incorrect":3}}},"changeLog":[{"at":"2026-09-26","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-26","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-26","what":"claims changed: +4 −7, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-25","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-25","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-25","what":"claims changed: +7 −6, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-24","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-24","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-24","what":"claims changed: +6 −5, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-23","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-23","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-23","what":"claims changed: +3 −4, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-22","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-22","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-22","what":"claims changed: +7 −7, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-21","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-21","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-21","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-20","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-20","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-20","what":"claims changed: +3 −2, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-19","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-19","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-19","what":"claims changed: +4 −5, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-18","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-18","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-18","what":"claims changed: +4 −5, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-17","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-17","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-17","what":"claims changed: +3 −5, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-16","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-16","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-16","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-16","what":"claims changed: +8 −5, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-15","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-15","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-15","what":"claims changed: +4 −1, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-14","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-14","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-14","what":"claims changed: +4 −1, 0 tier move(s)"}],"provenance":{"generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:27:21.825323+00:00","asOf":"2026-09-26","windowStart":"2026-09-20","windowEnd":"2026-09-26","inputs":[{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/publication_state.json","generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:26:29.232977+00:00","sha":"6dbd177aef85e618"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/signal_bureau_snapshot.json","generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:26:29.232977+00:00","sha":"ea2a70b2c8e6a73d"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/corpus_evidence.json","generatedAt":"2026-09-26T20:45:06.917695+00:00","sha":"564b48bec13092ca"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/event_graph.json","generatedAt":null,"sha":"5721b3b6f3de4da0"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/event_market_receipts.json","generatedAt":"2026-09-26","sha":"eb6cc8a0b05de3e4"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/entity_trends.json","generatedAt":null,"sha":"7c111da898e1d641"},{"path":"cross_domain/analysis/whats_true_latest.json","generatedAt":"2026-09-26T08:05:06.476473Z","sha":null},{"path":"registry/truth_sources.yaml","generatedAt":null,"sha":"3439a8cab13733c0"},{"path":"cross_domain/predictions","generatedAt":null,"sha":"806f562ba9c33f63"}],"recordVersion":"39076820583abd7a"}},"scope":{"oneRecord":"lib/truth_records/fed-rate-decision.json (sb.truth-record.v1) is the ONE producer of this subject's document count, outlet count, coverage window and claim rows. `record` is that file, verbatim. `exhibit` is the sb.truth.v1 view over it — the same numbers under the same names, plus the layers only the exhibit carries (first-party documents, press, our attention measurement, market belief).","sharedValues":["documents","outlets","activeDays","firstSeen","lastSeen","coverage.start","coverage.end","claims — row count, and each row's id, tier and claimUrl"],"differentByName":[{"key":"exhibit.layers.record.archive","measures":["documents","outlets","activeDays","since"],"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation","why":"a wider window than the maintained record's, so it is a DIFFERENT measure and never shares a key with it. Compare it to the record's counts and you are comparing two questions."}],"parityGate":"web/signal-bureau/scripts/check_truth_record_door.mjs §7 — a key carried by both under one name with two values fails the build."},"restPath":"/api/truth/fed-rate-decision","mcpTool":"get_truth_record","recordState":"served","maintainedRecord":{"schema":"sb.truth-record.v1","slug":"fed-rate-decision","kind":"event","subjectState":"active","tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"computed":"standard","served":"standard","passed":["at least 3 independent publishers on a joined claim","no unresolved contradiction on the record","at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read"],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"tierChangedAt":"2026-09-07","previousTier":"standard","subject":{"label":"Fed rate decisions","aliases":["fed chair","fed cuts","fed decision","fed hikes","fed holds","fed meeting","fed pause","fed raises","fed rate","fed rate decisions","fed-rate-decision","federal reserve"],"eventKey":"fed-rate-decision","entityKeys":["fed rate decisions","fed-rate-decision","federal reserve"],"mergedSlugs":[],"eventSlugs":["fed-rate-decision"]},"definition":{"whatThisIs":"Fed rate decisions is an event Signal Bureau maintains a record of (rate decision). The record joins 274 document(s) from 151 outlet(s) in the corpus.","whyTracked":"Registered in the publication registry, which is deny-by-default: a subject is served only once it is registered.","coverageSince":"2026-05-24","coverageSinceBasis":"first counted document (event-graph)","coverageSinceState":"measured","coverageSinceReason":null,"coverageSinceAlternates":[{"date":"2026-07-16","basis":"registered in the publication registry"}],"notCovered":["No probability of ours: this record reports what sources and markets say, and grades them. It does not forecast.","No primary-source layer is registered for this subject, so no first-party document is read for it."],"tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"computed":"standard","served":"standard","passed":["at least 3 independent publishers on a joined claim","no unresolved contradiction on the record","at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read"],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"state":"templated-from-structure","reason":""},"claims":[{"clusterKey":"8d749576d475","claim":"Fed proposes reserve limits, capital standards for stablecoin issuers under GENIUS Act","claimUrl":"https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/09/24/u-s-federal-reserve-moves-on-proposals-to-implement-genius-act-for-stablecoins","tier":{"id":"strong","label":"Cross-source agreement","meaning":"Four or more separate publishers carried this. Wire copies and republished copies are collapsed first — but publishers all working from one official statement still count separately, so this is agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":0,"countRule":"4 or more publishers"},"independentOrigins":12,"independentCount":11,"independenceBasis":"11 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates and 1 portal fallback(s) (news.google.com) were excluded; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"Reuters","wire":true},{"origin":"bankingjournal.aba.com","wire":false},{"origin":"coindesk.com","wire":false},{"origin":"cointelegraph.com","wire":false},{"origin":"cryptobriefing.com","wire":false},{"origin":"cryptotimes.io","wire":false},{"origin":"decrypt.co","wire":false},{"origin":"financefeeds.com","wire":false},{"origin":"news.google.com","wire":false},{"origin":"pymnts.com","wire":false},{"origin":"startupfortune.com","wire":false},{"origin":"theblock.co","wire":false}],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-24","receipts":[{"origin":"Reuters","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxPY25jeWJ2LVJIWmg5cThieHN1M3RDYjNGcGRyR19sNVN0cHBXRXlCUmEzbS1Zb3ZsNnhSM3VmcFQ4QkUzNG1VRXpkTTF2elFfNDhYa19ha0pJZlNpRHFhUXIwcE83ckdBM01Sc3FvRW1hZEY1MkR1RF9ZNFVDUTZkTmRhRXhJanlzRFF2OTdLaWZ4dWJjejJHR0FKRVoycGgzaklV?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":true,"redirect":true},{"origin":"bankingjournal.aba.com","url":"https://bankingjournal.aba.com/2026/09/fed-proposes-rules-for-genius-act-implementation/","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"coindesk.com","url":"https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/09/24/u-s-federal-reserve-moves-on-proposals-to-implement-genius-act-for-stablecoins","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"cointelegraph.com","url":"https://cointelegraph.com/news/fed-proposes-new-capital-redemption-rules-for-stablecoin-issuers?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"cryptobriefing.com","url":"https://cryptobriefing.com/fed-proposes-new-stablecoin-rules-under-genius-act/","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"cryptotimes.io","url":"https://www.cryptotimes.io/2026/09/25/federal-reserve-proposes-stablecoin-rules-under-genius-act/","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"decrypt.co","url":"https://decrypt.co/379274/federal-reserve-unveils-stablecoin-rules-on-reserves-and-capital","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"financefeeds.com","url":"https://financefeeds.com/federal-reserve-proposes-new-rules-for-banks-issuing-payment-stablecoins-under-genius-act/","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"news.google.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigAFBVV95cUxNdGR1ODJLakZCd095elYxM2tvTmdaN21lejdZUkNxSHFYWGwxTWpkXzJGXzhPd0dITWszb1F6NlAtWjdCTVBpSXJoMzBpWDZmZkNOLXoxbzVMV3lIZFVZRTMzenpaU20takVXNWlRRkJzMlBTRkczZHNqRkxkVzZDSQ?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":true},{"origin":"pymnts.com","url":"https://www.pymnts.com/cryptocurrency/2026/fed-proposes-stablecoin-reserve-and-capital-rules-under-genius-act/","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"startupfortune.com","url":"https://startupfortune.com/federal-reserve-proposes-stablecoin-reserve-and-capital-rules-for-banks/","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"theblock.co","url":"https://www.theblock.co/news/regulation/2026-09-24-fed-proposes-reserve-limits-capital-standards-stablecoin-issuers-genius-act-416336","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"Reuters","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxPY25jeWJ2LVJIWmg5cThieHN1M3RDYjNGcGRyR19sNVN0cHBXRXlCUmEzbS1Zb3ZsNnhSM3VmcFQ4QkUzNG1VRXpkTTF2elFfNDhYa19ha0pJZlNpRHFhUXIwcE83ckdBM01Sc3FvRW1hZEY1MkR1RF9ZNFVDUTZkTmRhRXhJanlzRFF2OTdLaWZ4dWJjejJHR0FKRVoycGgzaklV?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":true,"redirect":true},{"origin":"bankingjournal.aba.com","url":"https://bankingjournal.aba.com/2026/09/fed-proposes-rules-for-genius-act-implementation/","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"coindesk.com","url":"https://www.coindesk.com/policy/2026/09/24/u-s-federal-reserve-moves-on-proposals-to-implement-genius-act-for-stablecoins","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"cointelegraph.com","url":"https://cointelegraph.com/news/fed-proposes-new-capital-redemption-rules-for-stablecoin-issuers?utm_source=rss_feed&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=rss_partner_inbound","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"cryptobriefing.com","url":"https://cryptobriefing.com/fed-proposes-new-stablecoin-rules-under-genius-act/","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"cryptotimes.io","url":"https://www.cryptotimes.io/2026/09/25/federal-reserve-proposes-stablecoin-rules-under-genius-act/","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"decrypt.co","url":"https://decrypt.co/379274/federal-reserve-unveils-stablecoin-rules-on-reserves-and-capital","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"financefeeds.com","url":"https://financefeeds.com/federal-reserve-proposes-new-rules-for-banks-issuing-payment-stablecoins-under-genius-act/","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"news.google.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMigAFBVV95cUxNdGR1ODJLakZCd095elYxM2tvTmdaN21lejdZUkNxSHFYWGwxTWpkXzJGXzhPd0dITWszb1F6NlAtWjdCTVBpSXJoMzBpWDZmZkNOLXoxbzVMV3lIZFVZRTMzenpaU20takVXNWlRRkJzMlBTRkczZHNqRkxkVzZDSQ?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":true},{"origin":"pymnts.com","url":"https://www.pymnts.com/cryptocurrency/2026/fed-proposes-stablecoin-reserve-and-capital-rules-under-genius-act/","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"startupfortune.com","url":"https://startupfortune.com/federal-reserve-proposes-stablecoin-reserve-and-capital-rules-for-banks/","publishedAt":"2026-09-24","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"theblock.co","url":"https://www.theblock.co/news/regulation/2026-09-24-fed-proposes-reserve-limits-capital-standards-stablecoin-issuers-genius-act-416336","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":12,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["federal reserve"],"state":"corroborated"},{"clusterKey":"a60d4a8f2aee","claim":"Federal Reserve official says inflation persistence led her to support interest rate hike","claimUrl":"https://www.independent.co.uk/news/donald-trump-great-recession-treasury-washington-rsm-b3053110.html","tier":{"id":"strong","label":"Cross-source agreement","meaning":"Four or more separate publishers carried this. Wire copies and republished copies are collapsed first — but publishers all working from one official statement still count separately, so this is agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":0,"countRule":"4 or more publishers"},"independentOrigins":5,"independentCount":4,"independenceBasis":"4 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates and 1 portal fallback(s) (news.google.com) were excluded; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"AP","wire":true},{"origin":"ABC News","wire":false},{"origin":"independent.co.uk","wire":false},{"origin":"Commentaries","wire":false},{"origin":"news.google.com","wire":false}],"wires":["AP"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","receipts":[{"origin":"AP","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiogFBVV95cUxQZ3dEZVlWRUlJSG5hc2RlT2ZyYkpFME5teENRcGMtdmhUTDdDbVU4cENBSXRmSTZVblJPYU54eHZtb2lHOWNBQ1FfMUM5MGE0Q3ZPM3p3WEc0clVqU2hWdHFIbXk2dFU1T1RsYkhmMTNIblpmLXRnNWdJLUZiemM1UXNVZGd2d2hDbWJ2ZUNJX3dvMUgtMThNSDZwbUpCZkNhTGc?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-22","wire":true,"redirect":true},{"origin":"ABC News","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiogFBVV95cUxPdkJ1aGZOVHowUUNJZmxGNFR5RFgzMGZEbkFVQ0lMdUs4TlFhenV3WmZPRjZnREFXVzJRWVNiVVp2V3M2X0dia3JKUWRFcmJVdDlGWm0zem5fbk9MdnpVWThwT3IyVDAwVjNOQ1JzeEJFR1RORVR4ZjVsSkFWVDV5NU1GY0hmajdHMmZtaDJxSjJwSXMzaWowbU9HMlFaak1KR0HSAacBQVVfeXFMUFc0UzNFTTFSX2NTaWVHT1pncHJoMDdCS0x1czIxbFJHeUszT3ZSelhvX2RmeXk1SjVYM3NlNTZoZjRpN2Rhb245bG8wX3BwQVBjR0VvNm45UDE2dGRKN2ZQTmZwbEJ2d1pwZHVVRE4zZW1nMnZIbnZMMGktYWxuT0F0MmNhdmxMTUpTQzNjcjVrelczWnZERVQ5SEFGMGI1NnlLTmtNVkE?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":true},{"origin":"independent.co.uk","url":"https://www.independent.co.uk/news/donald-trump-great-recession-treasury-washington-rsm-b3053110.html","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"Commentaries","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiogFBVV95cUxQbEZnOWtvYm5TZ0J0aFRZYVNVVUNqdjdoR0pBQ3NjZFVtbHB0WHRraHZjYkFlT3Q1cXdFTUFCRUp3OEt4djlWUjA3SXlabVFkY25LR0E1SVFBVklBaWhRTmM2bkFlbDdCYmExei1pMHFGeTZucndwRG9SUTdtQ2tLUFZuNXUyMXd6QU9FZWlNTEVZSXBkdWt6cUhZbmU4aVFDT3c?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-22","wire":false,"redirect":true},{"origin":"news.google.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijAFBVV95cUxNa0hlOHpLbWRvYS1Cc0x6dnRESV8waktYOGNaVkxnYXRYMEpSTlVKTXF1WEhCYU1YM1dCeGx3SnZZeXEyNV9QTjF6b0RiSTRxemgtQktkM3B0ZFktR2FSMUZRWkViZ2k3bk1ORzVmZG1jbXdQNVNPeVVkaXdZNVZTYVNVbWdGZ0laY1AtUw?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":true}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"AP","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiogFBVV95cUxQZ3dEZVlWRUlJSG5hc2RlT2ZyYkpFME5teENRcGMtdmhUTDdDbVU4cENBSXRmSTZVblJPYU54eHZtb2lHOWNBQ1FfMUM5MGE0Q3ZPM3p3WEc0clVqU2hWdHFIbXk2dFU1T1RsYkhmMTNIblpmLXRnNWdJLUZiemM1UXNVZGd2d2hDbWJ2ZUNJX3dvMUgtMThNSDZwbUpCZkNhTGc?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-22","wire":true,"redirect":true},{"origin":"ABC News","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiogFBVV95cUxPdkJ1aGZOVHowUUNJZmxGNFR5RFgzMGZEbkFVQ0lMdUs4TlFhenV3WmZPRjZnREFXVzJRWVNiVVp2V3M2X0dia3JKUWRFcmJVdDlGWm0zem5fbk9MdnpVWThwT3IyVDAwVjNOQ1JzeEJFR1RORVR4ZjVsSkFWVDV5NU1GY0hmajdHMmZtaDJxSjJwSXMzaWowbU9HMlFaak1KR0HSAacBQVVfeXFMUFc0UzNFTTFSX2NTaWVHT1pncHJoMDdCS0x1czIxbFJHeUszT3ZSelhvX2RmeXk1SjVYM3NlNTZoZjRpN2Rhb245bG8wX3BwQVBjR0VvNm45UDE2dGRKN2ZQTmZwbEJ2d1pwZHVVRE4zZW1nMnZIbnZMMGktYWxuT0F0MmNhdmxMTUpTQzNjcjVrelczWnZERVQ5SEFGMGI1NnlLTmtNVkE?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":true},{"origin":"independent.co.uk","url":"https://www.independent.co.uk/news/donald-trump-great-recession-treasury-washington-rsm-b3053110.html","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"Commentaries","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiogFBVV95cUxQbEZnOWtvYm5TZ0J0aFRZYVNVVUNqdjdoR0pBQ3NjZFVtbHB0WHRraHZjYkFlT3Q1cXdFTUFCRUp3OEt4djlWUjA3SXlabVFkY25LR0E1SVFBVklBaWhRTmM2bkFlbDdCYmExei1pMHFGeTZucndwRG9SUTdtQ2tLUFZuNXUyMXd6QU9FZWlNTEVZSXBkdWt6cUhZbmU4aVFDT3c?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-22","wire":false,"redirect":true},{"origin":"news.google.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijAFBVV95cUxNa0hlOHpLbWRvYS1Cc0x6dnRESV8waktYOGNaVkxnYXRYMEpSTlVKTXF1WEhCYU1YM1dCeGx3SnZZeXEyNV9QTjF6b0RiSTRxemgtQktkM3B0ZFktR2FSMUZRWkViZ2k3bk1ORzVmZG1jbXdQNVNPeVVkaXdZNVZTYVNVbWdGZ0laY1AtUw?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":true}],"originsTotal":5,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["federal reserve"],"state":"corroborated"},{"clusterKey":"17df052ac397","claim":"Can Kevin Warsh Change the Federal Reserve?","claimUrl":"https://time.com/article/2026/09/19/can-kevin-warsh-change-the-federal-reserve-/","tier":{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","meaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":1,"countRule":"2 or 3 publishers"},"independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":1,"independenceBasis":"1 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates and 1 portal fallback(s) (news.google.com) were excluded; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"news.google.com","wire":false},{"origin":"time.com","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","receipts":[{"origin":"news.google.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihwFBVV95cUxPWEZKeEhvcWhCeDF4eDlxNnJ5OXhwaGtQYjFtbFBFWVc0Sl9qRzRSU0t2OC1BdEZSangxWnpEbWFkWVNNWXZYZzFVaVpUaDRrQ0lpTU9TNUNWV09YNlV2R0FRTGl1SE5YanpFcWZ2WFY1RFd5SVhfZ0JGMVBqekxnWmdKRzJWQXc?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":true},{"origin":"time.com","url":"https://time.com/article/2026/09/19/can-kevin-warsh-change-the-federal-reserve-/","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"news.google.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihwFBVV95cUxPWEZKeEhvcWhCeDF4eDlxNnJ5OXhwaGtQYjFtbFBFWVc0Sl9qRzRSU0t2OC1BdEZSangxWnpEbWFkWVNNWXZYZzFVaVpUaDRrQ0lpTU9TNUNWV09YNlV2R0FRTGl1SE5YanpFcWZ2WFY1RFd5SVhfZ0JGMVBqekxnWmdKRzJWQXc?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":true},{"origin":"time.com","url":"https://time.com/article/2026/09/19/can-kevin-warsh-change-the-federal-reserve-/","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":2,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["federal reserve"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"b064f0260a1f","claim":"Three words from Kevin Warsh have Wall Street wondering how far the Fed will go with rate hikes","claimUrl":"https://startupfortune.com/kevin-warsh-has-markets-pricing-three-more-rate-hikes-through-june/","tier":{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","meaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":1,"countRule":"2 or 3 publishers"},"independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":1,"independenceBasis":"1 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates and 1 portal fallback(s) (news.google.com) were excluded; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"news.google.com","wire":false},{"origin":"startupfortune.com","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","receipts":[{"origin":"news.google.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMizAFBVV95cUxNSXdfWXNIMEY2YkdDSGh2cWVONW03aXdjUFFuUGV5cmswQnNjQlgzNTJTWTBiM3ZnZmY4Wl95MmRYOGFyeDB6YjJwTTdDdk94QU1jendxcHZxemF2dExzdFh1WWwzeE0tMTdnWUFLWUhqeTdUMm9ORG53UGVoaU1zSVhVU3hkV1RNaDNqNmNjMVo2VUVteXR0NnE1dHZUZGo2WUZUMWNYdzlnR3FGcWNrRlhqU0hUX21VUUI4aE50bUFmb2tVdDZMMldYNG8?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":true},{"origin":"startupfortune.com","url":"https://startupfortune.com/kevin-warsh-has-markets-pricing-three-more-rate-hikes-through-june/","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"news.google.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMizAFBVV95cUxNSXdfWXNIMEY2YkdDSGh2cWVONW03aXdjUFFuUGV5cmswQnNjQlgzNTJTWTBiM3ZnZmY4Wl95MmRYOGFyeDB6YjJwTTdDdk94QU1jendxcHZxemF2dExzdFh1WWwzeE0tMTdnWUFLWUhqeTdUMm9ORG53UGVoaU1zSVhVU3hkV1RNaDNqNmNjMVo2VUVteXR0NnE1dHZUZGo2WUZUMWNYdzlnR3FGcWNrRlhqU0hUX21VUUI4aE50bUFmb2tVdDZMMldYNG8?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":true},{"origin":"startupfortune.com","url":"https://startupfortune.com/kevin-warsh-has-markets-pricing-three-more-rate-hikes-through-june/","publishedAt":"2026-09-25","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":2,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["federal reserve"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"f816eaa5f236","claim":"The Fed Just Hiked Rates for the First Time Since 2023. Here Is What That Means for the AUD, Gold and the ASX","claimUrl":"https://memeburn.com/fed-rate-hike-bitcoin-76k/","tier":{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","meaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":1,"countRule":"2 or 3 publishers"},"independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":1,"independenceBasis":"1 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates and 1 portal fallback(s) (news.google.com) were excluded; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"news.google.com","wire":false},{"origin":"memeburn.com","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","receipts":[{"origin":"news.google.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxOaXFiaTVqR2VYa2tJanRBZ3dZbWFwdl8zdWFKYmhZbWNSNUxZV01RM3cxTUVMSkV4MUREMUZjRS1WR1hSZEZySU5lVTRETmIzX21WZFJ5S2xPLXNYN0ZHSGtQRC1Cc1dNWmdpUU5mblpOMWF5VzBBUkc2Y0Rfcy1iOUxjSHdUNFNBblpud1hxTGJTbUM2U0ZVclJEWlZyX1VGM2l3?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":true},{"origin":"memeburn.com","url":"https://memeburn.com/fed-rate-hike-bitcoin-76k/","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"news.google.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiowFBVV95cUxOaXFiaTVqR2VYa2tJanRBZ3dZbWFwdl8zdWFKYmhZbWNSNUxZV01RM3cxTUVMSkV4MUREMUZjRS1WR1hSZEZySU5lVTRETmIzX21WZFJ5S2xPLXNYN0ZHSGtQRC1Cc1dNWmdpUU5mblpOMWF5VzBBUkc2Y0Rfcy1iOUxjSHdUNFNBblpud1hxTGJTbUM2U0ZVclJEWlZyX1VGM2l3?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":true},{"origin":"memeburn.com","url":"https://memeburn.com/fed-rate-hike-bitcoin-76k/","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":2,"subjectDocuments":[{"t":"The Fed Just Hiked for the First Time Since 2023. Here’s Why Bitcoin Barely Moved","src":"Memeburn","u":"https://memeburn.com/the-fed-just-hiked-for-the-first-time-since-2023-heres-why-bitcoin-barely-moved/","pd":"2026-09-21"}],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["document","entity"],"matchedKeys":["federal reserve"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"3a796333851f","claim":"What’s Next for Stocks After the US Fed Rate Hike","claimUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijgFBVV95cUxPQ3RSckZOUzVESzdiWGduU1FhLWRYNUIxS29TWC1Ic0RJS0V5RGg4bUQxQVl3NGFDdW9GVXU0dVQ3UElrS0MyLTc3LXg3eVRRNzZWRS00MXNqYVp4YWh5QjR6V00zRzRmYS1WeFV2WXY3cXVBYTVrS0tOemxjLWczUUxVeTd5Y1ZCQV8zWnBn?oc=5","tier":{"id":"weak","label":"Single source","meaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","rank":3,"countRule":"1 publisher"},"independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":0,"independenceBasis":"0 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates and 1 portal fallback(s) (news.google.com) were excluded; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"news.google.com","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-21","receipts":[{"origin":"news.google.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijgFBVV95cUxPQ3RSckZOUzVESzdiWGduU1FhLWRYNUIxS29TWC1Ic0RJS0V5RGg4bUQxQVl3NGFDdW9GVXU0dVQ3UElrS0MyLTc3LXg3eVRRNzZWRS00MXNqYVp4YWh5QjR6V00zRzRmYS1WeFV2WXY3cXVBYTVrS0tOemxjLWczUUxVeTd5Y1ZCQV8zWnBn?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":true}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"news.google.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMijgFBVV95cUxPQ3RSckZOUzVESzdiWGduU1FhLWRYNUIxS29TWC1Ic0RJS0V5RGg4bUQxQVl3NGFDdW9GVXU0dVQ3UElrS0MyLTc3LXg3eVRRNzZWRS00MXNqYVp4YWh5QjR6V00zRzRmYS1WeFV2WXY3cXVBYTVrS0tOemxjLWczUUxVeTd5Y1ZCQV8zWnBn?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":true}],"originsTotal":1,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt-redirect","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["federal reserve"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"b121b35ed0b3","claim":"Why the US Fed Rate Hike Spells Bad News for Private Equity Exits","claimUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxPV1dEeVJVWF81MEQ5cnh0ckdfcWVOLUpsREpZdGJkeWk4dkZRdk5GRHN2cnpmY1ZxeTNVckFFbjMtN3NFOGF3STlwZ203NWRDb2EzR3RnQnpMM1VRdV9JcWh4RHJ2enI1YW1EdDRnZzZ6QW1LQVdUYy1CeWU1TTBPaGQ3Q05OUVQ3bDlaQXpsUDNHWU1G?oc=5","tier":{"id":"weak","label":"Single source","meaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","rank":3,"countRule":"1 publisher"},"independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":0,"independenceBasis":"0 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates and 1 portal fallback(s) (news.google.com) were excluded; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"news.google.com","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-21","receipts":[{"origin":"news.google.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxPV1dEeVJVWF81MEQ5cnh0ckdfcWVOLUpsREpZdGJkeWk4dkZRdk5GRHN2cnpmY1ZxeTNVckFFbjMtN3NFOGF3STlwZ203NWRDb2EzR3RnQnpMM1VRdV9JcWh4RHJ2enI1YW1EdDRnZzZ6QW1LQVdUYy1CeWU1TTBPaGQ3Q05OUVQ3bDlaQXpsUDNHWU1G?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":true}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"news.google.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMilAFBVV95cUxPV1dEeVJVWF81MEQ5cnh0ckdfcWVOLUpsREpZdGJkeWk4dkZRdk5GRHN2cnpmY1ZxeTNVckFFbjMtN3NFOGF3STlwZ203NWRDb2EzR3RnQnpMM1VRdV9JcWh4RHJ2enI1YW1EdDRnZzZ6QW1LQVdUYy1CeWU1TTBPaGQ3Q05OUVQ3bDlaQXpsUDNHWU1G?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":true}],"originsTotal":1,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt-redirect","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["federal reserve"],"state":"single-source"}],"primaryDocuments":[],"marketSensor":{"state":"priced","reason":"","questions":[{"question":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-no-change-in-fed-interest-rates-after-the-december-2026-meeting-20260729232808635","pricePct":27.5,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-26","endDate":"2026-12-09","venueStatus":"live","boundVia":"event:fed-rate-decision"},{"question":"Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.5% or higher before 2027?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027","pricePct":44.3,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-26","seenBasis":"the entity's priced capture carries no per-row timestamp; this is the corpus-evidence shard's own build date","endDate":null,"venueStatus":"confirming","boundVia":"entity:federal reserve"},{"question":"Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-october-20260617190323537","pricePct":64.5,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-26","seenBasis":"the entity's priced capture carries no per-row timestamp; this is the corpus-evidence shard's own build date","endDate":null,"venueStatus":"confirming","boundVia":"entity:federal reserve"},{"question":"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-50-bps-after-the-december-2026-meeting-20260729232808633","pricePct":0.45,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-26","endDate":"2026-12-09","venueStatus":"live","boundVia":"event:fed-rate-decision"},{"question":"Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decisions-sepdec","pricePct":42.5,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-26","seenBasis":"the entity's priced capture carries no per-row timestamp; this is the corpus-evidence shard's own build date","endDate":null,"venueStatus":"confirming","boundVia":"entity:federal reserve"},{"question":"Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026","pricePct":96.6,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-26","endDate":"2027-01-01","venueStatus":"live","boundVia":"event:fed-rate-decision"},{"question":"Fed rate cut by July 2027 meeting?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/fed-rate-cut-by-july-2027-meeting","pricePct":44.5,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-26","endDate":"2027-08-08","venueStatus":"live","boundVia":"event:fed-rate-decision"},{"question":"Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/fed-emergency-rate-cut-before-2027","pricePct":2.45,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-24","endDate":"2027-01-01","venueStatus":"live","boundVia":"event:fed-rate-decision"}],"venue":"polymarket","priceAsOf":"2026-09-26","dropped":1,"note":"prices are a sensor we cite and grade, never a probability of ours (docs/decisions/20260817 Not a Forecasting Shop)"},"refereeGrades":[{"question":"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?","publishedAt":"2026-04-13","gradedAt":"2026-05-03","outcome":"incorrect","confidence":"HIGH"},{"question":"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?","publishedAt":"2026-04-13","gradedAt":"2026-05-03","outcome":"incorrect","confidence":"HIGH"},{"question":"Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?","publishedAt":"2026-04-13","gradedAt":"2026-05-03","outcome":"incorrect","confidence":"HIGH"}],"theRecord":{"state":"measured","reason":"","documents":274,"outlets":151,"activeDays":9,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","lastSeen":"2026-09-18","assertionMix":{"rate-decision":167,"econ-release":8,"meeting-visit":5,"launch-release":4,"price-threshold":4,"utterance":4},"countsBasis":"event-graph","receiptsOnRecord":12,"withheldFutureDated":0,"droppedInputs":10,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 9 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"ourAttention":{"state":"cannot-measure","level":null,"direction":"unknown","reason":"no attention series carries this subject — the entity-trends shard does not index it, so our own attention is UNKNOWN, not zero"},"ourRead":{"state":"measured","reason":"","corroboratedNow":[{"claim":"Fed proposes reserve limits, capital standards for stablecoin issuers under GENIUS Act","clusterKey":"8d749576d475","tier":"Cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":12,"independentCount":11,"earliestDate":"2026-09-24"},{"claim":"Federal Reserve official says inflation persistence led her to support interest rate hike","clusterKey":"a60d4a8f2aee","tier":"Cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":5,"independentCount":4,"earliestDate":"2026-09-20"}],"corroboratedCount":2,"singleSource":[{"claim":"Can Kevin Warsh Change the Federal Reserve?","clusterKey":"17df052ac397","tier":"Some cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":1,"earliestDate":"2026-09-20"},{"claim":"Three words from Kevin Warsh have Wall Street wondering how far the Fed will go with rate hikes","clusterKey":"b064f0260a1f","tier":"Some cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":1,"earliestDate":"2026-09-20"},{"claim":"The Fed Just Hiked Rates for the First Time Since 2023. Here Is What That Means for the AUD, Gold and the ASX","clusterKey":"f816eaa5f236","tier":"Some cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":1,"earliestDate":"2026-09-20"},{"claim":"What’s Next for Stocks After the US Fed Rate Hike","clusterKey":"3a796333851f","tier":"Single source","independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":0,"earliestDate":"2026-09-21"},{"claim":"Why the US Fed Rate Hike Spells Bad News for Private Equity Exits","clusterKey":"b121b35ed0b3","tier":"Single source","independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":0,"earliestDate":"2026-09-21"}],"singleSourceCount":5,"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","items":[],"reason":"no polarity-comparable pair — no two claims on this record share a typed actor and action class over the same proposition, so no contradiction can be judged"},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","reason":"","added":[],"removed":[],"tierMoves":[],"against":"2026-09-26"},"divergence":{"state":"measured","reason":"","sensor":{"question":"Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?","pricePct":27.5,"venue":"polymarket","seenAt":"2026-09-26"},"corroboratedClaims":2,"text":"The crowd prices “Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?” at 27.5% on polymarket (seen 2026-09-26), beside 2 independently corroborated claim(s) on this record. The price is a sensor we cite and grade, not a probability of ours."},"heldAsProvenance":[],"inputsDropped":[{"reason":"receipt hygiene dropped the row: it carries no title or no URL at all","title":"Federal Reserve official says inflation persistence led her to support interest rate hike"},{"reason":"receipt hygiene dropped the row: it carries no title or no URL at all","title":"Why the Fed Rate Hike Spells Bad News for Private Equity Exits"},{"reason":"receipt hygiene dropped the row: it carries no title or no URL at all","title":"The Fed raised rates and gold didn’t break: Here’s why"},{"reason":"receipt hygiene dropped the row: it carries no title or no URL at all","title":"Money Matters: Federal Reserve rate hike impact"},{"reason":"receipt hygiene dropped the row: it carries no title or no URL at all","title":"Federal Reserve rate hike reflects new world of sticky inflation and faster growth"},{"reason":"receipt hygiene dropped the row: it carries no title or no URL at all","title":"Federal Reserve official says fighting inflation likely to be ‘painful’"},{"reason":"receipt hygiene dropped the row: it carries no title or no URL at all","title":"Federal Reserve official says Iran war pushed her toward supporting rate hike"},{"reason":"receipt hygiene dropped the row: it carries no title or no URL at all","title":"Why the Federal Reserve is lifting rates now, and what it means"}],"synthesis":null,"synthesisState":"withheld-by-design — synthesis runs only at full tier behind the coherence and no-advice gates, which this builder does not run","basis":[{"artifact":"cross_domain/analysis/whats_true_latest.json","used":"claims, tiers, independent origins","state":"read"},{"artifact":"web/signal-bureau/lib/event_market_receipts.json","used":"market sensor (event side)","state":"priced"},{"artifact":"web/signal-bureau/lib/corpus_evidence.json","used":"receipts and priced captures (entity side)","state":"read"}]},"sectionStates":{"definition":{"state":"templated-from-structure","reason":""},"claims":{"state":"measured","reason":""},"primaryDocuments":{"state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no row in registry/truth_sources.yaml names this subject, so it has no registered primary-source layer"},"marketSensor":{"state":"priced","reason":""},"refereeGrades":{"state":"graded","reason":""},"theRecord":{"state":"measured","reason":""},"ourAttention":{"state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no attention series carries this subject — the entity-trends shard does not index it, so our own attention is UNKNOWN, not zero"},"ourRead":{"state":"measured","reason":""}},"currency":{"state":"current","asOf":"2026-09-18","basis":{"asOf":"2026-09-26","newestObservationAt":"2026-09-18","newestObservationBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","ageDays":8,"expectedCadenceDays":13,"cadenceBasis":"this record's own observed cadence — 9 active day(s) over a 118-day window","graceMultiple":1,"wallMultiple":3,"blindSources":[],"retiredAt":null,"recordState":"measured"},"sentence":"This record is current: the newest source item is from 2026-09-18, inside its expected cadence of about one item every 13 days."},"scope":{"state":"measured","reason":null,"countsBasis":"event-graph","countsWindow":{"from":"2026-05-24","to":"2026-09-18","activeDays":9,"documents":274,"outlets":151},"claimsWindow":{"from":"2026-09-20","to":"2026-09-26"},"coverageStart":{"state":"measured","date":"2026-05-24","basis":"first counted document (event-graph)","alternates":[{"date":"2026-07-16","basis":"registered in the publication registry"}],"reason":null},"retiredAt":null,"receipts":{"withReceipt":7,"total":7,"cannotMeasure":0},"claimTiers":[{"id":"strong","label":"Cross-source agreement","rank":0,"count":2},{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","rank":1,"count":3},{"id":"weak","label":"Single source","rank":3,"count":2}],"claimsShown":7,"claimsDropped":0,"claimsAtPublishedTiers":5,"publishedTiers":["strong","moderate"],"note":"This record's counts are the event-graph for this subject — 274 document(s) over 9 active day(s) from 2026-05-24 to 2026-09-18; its 7 claim(s) come from the corroboration run covering 2026-09-20 to 2026-09-26 and include every agreement tier (5 of them at the published tiers strong, moderate), so a cumulative archive total published on another surface counts a different set over a different window and is not expected to match this one. Coverage of this subject begins 2026-05-24 — first counted document (event-graph); other structures date it 2026-07-16 (registered in the publication registry)."},"limits":[{"section":"primaryDocuments","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no row in registry/truth_sources.yaml names this subject, so it has no registered primary-source layer"},{"section":"ourAttention","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no attention series carries this subject — the entity-trends shard does not index it, so our own attention is UNKNOWN, not zero"}],"verify":{"rest":"GET /api/truth/fed-rate-decision","mcp":"get_truth_record {\"slug\": \"fed-rate-decision\"}"},"claimsMeta":{"state":"measured","reason":"","dropped":0},"primaryDocumentsMeta":{"state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no row in registry/truth_sources.yaml names this subject, so it has no registered primary-source layer"},"refereeGradesMeta":{"state":"graded","reason":"","counts":{"published":142,"graded":3,"outcomes":{"incorrect":3}}},"changeLog":[{"at":"2026-09-26","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-26","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-26","what":"claims changed: +4 −7, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-25","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-25","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-25","what":"claims changed: +7 −6, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-24","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-24","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-24","what":"claims changed: +6 −5, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-23","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-23","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-23","what":"claims changed: +3 −4, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-22","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-22","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-22","what":"claims changed: +7 −7, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-21","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-21","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-21","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-20","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-20","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-20","what":"claims changed: +3 −2, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-19","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-19","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-19","what":"claims changed: +4 −5, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-18","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-18","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-18","what":"claims changed: +4 −5, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-17","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-17","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-17","what":"claims changed: +3 −5, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-16","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-16","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-16","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-16","what":"claims changed: +8 −5, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-15","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-15","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-15","what":"claims changed: +4 −1, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-14","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-14","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-14","what":"claims changed: +4 −1, 0 tier move(s)"}],"provenance":{"generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:27:21.825323+00:00","asOf":"2026-09-26","windowStart":"2026-09-20","windowEnd":"2026-09-26","inputs":[{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/publication_state.json","generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:26:29.232977+00:00","sha":"6dbd177aef85e618"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/signal_bureau_snapshot.json","generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:26:29.232977+00:00","sha":"ea2a70b2c8e6a73d"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/corpus_evidence.json","generatedAt":"2026-09-26T20:45:06.917695+00:00","sha":"564b48bec13092ca"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/event_graph.json","generatedAt":null,"sha":"5721b3b6f3de4da0"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/event_market_receipts.json","generatedAt":"2026-09-26","sha":"eb6cc8a0b05de3e4"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/entity_trends.json","generatedAt":null,"sha":"7c111da898e1d641"},{"path":"cross_domain/analysis/whats_true_latest.json","generatedAt":"2026-09-26T08:05:06.476473Z","sha":null},{"path":"registry/truth_sources.yaml","generatedAt":null,"sha":"3439a8cab13733c0"},{"path":"cross_domain/predictions","generatedAt":null,"sha":"806f562ba9c33f63"}],"recordVersion":"39076820583abd7a"}}}