{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"fed-rate-decision","title":"The Fed rate decisions record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","asOf":"2026-08-08","generatedAt":"2026-08-08T23:26:25.200604+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/fed-rate-decision and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/fed-rate-decision so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source","items":[{"title":"US job losses in July temper Federal Reserve rate hike expectations - ColoradoBiz","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTFBCSWxxUm8xaUtsdkZWdnZCMTRmTVZjNkI4NG5mSlFvNTZMNXNPRkdqdGRXalB5YS1kQmllemw1azZHSXhObWx5akVwOVV2NXBDSkZ1U3hHQnVSbzdSendBLUZnb29td3BvNnRPOVhZcEFTVjB0VkhLMA?oc=5&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Federal Reserve holds interest rates steady - thetriangle.org","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMif0FVX3lxTE5HbkNrY1VJRTBvbDJoM0RtWEticnVpVG5jYjVsd3Rjclo0MUl4V3ZtUGhiT1VxVEozSnlGUWFCd2RKcURXMXpSbGRYTHY5U0pucXZHc2xndFF5SVhUTVdyako5NjZjbFY3Z1pzcTNraWk1UnZ2OTN3cEdZdlRtQlE?oc=5&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Donald Trump renews effort to fire Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook - Al Jazeera","url":"https://news.google.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?oc=5&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"US payrolls fell 23,000 in July — the shock miss that just pulled the Fed dovish","url":"https://old.reddit.com/r/Economics/comments/1vi1fdq/us_payrolls_fell_23000_in_july_the_shock_miss/","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":196,"outlets":59,"activeDays":34,"firstSeen":"2026-04-14","lastSeen":"2026-08-09","homeDomains":["macro_economics","crypto_defi"],"asserts":{"rate-decision":33,"econ-release":17,"utterance":5,"military-action":4,"meeting-visit":4,"regulatory-approval":3},"assertionCoverage":0.383,"movesWith":[{"label":"interest rates","n":75,"sharedDomains":["macro_economics"]},{"label":"treasury","n":40,"sharedDomains":["crypto_defi"]},{"label":"bitcoin","n":29,"sharedDomains":["crypto_defi"]},{"label":"inflation","n":59,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"crypto","n":27,"sharedDomains":["crypto_defi"]},{"label":"central bank","n":21,"sharedDomains":["crypto_defi"]},{"label":"ai","n":34,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"iran","n":31,"sharedDomains":[]}],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"fading","baselineRelativePct":-38,"reading":"Our coverage of Fed rate decisions is 38% below its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":73,"eventMentions":2394,"periods":[{"period":"2029","mentions":7},{"period":"2027-06","mentions":11},{"period":"2027","mentions":95},{"period":"2026-12","mentions":139},{"period":"2026-10","mentions":203},{"period":"2026-09","mentions":210},{"period":"2026-08","mentions":14},{"period":"2026","mentions":1715}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Fed rate decisions","slug":"fed-rate-decision","questionCount":33,"questions":["Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?","Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?","Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the December 2026 meeting?","Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?","Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?","Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?"],"mentions":2394,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","lastSeen":"2026-08-06"}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-08","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery."},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-07-28T15:28:32.475746+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-27T15:37:45.852260+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"rising","at":"2026-07-29T16:14:44.489092+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-28T15:28:32.475746+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-08-03T15:44:09.453412+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-29T16:14:44.489092+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"fading","at":"2026-08-07T15:06:56.050386+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-03T15:44:09.453412+00:00"}]}}}