{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"election-germany","title":"The Election: Germany record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"germany","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"germany\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Election: Germany\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity.","candidatesConsidered":["germany"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":[],"actionClass":"election"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-09-26","currency":{"state":"current","asOf":"2026-09-20","basis":{"asOf":"2026-09-26","newestObservationAt":"2026-09-20","newestObservationBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","ageDays":6,"expectedCadenceDays":9,"cadenceBasis":"this record's own observed cadence — 7 active day(s) over a 66-day window","graceMultiple":1,"wallMultiple":3,"blindSources":[],"retiredAt":null,"recordState":"measured"},"sentence":"This record is current: the newest source item is from 2026-09-20, inside its expected cadence of about one item every 9 days."},"generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:26:29.232977+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/election-germany and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://sigb.ai/api/truth/election-germany so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"germany\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"none-event-relevant","note":"Measured zero after event-relevance filtering: we sampled 4 attributable rows for \"germany\" and not one could be shown to be about \"Election: Germany\" — each carried the subject's name and nothing else this record is about. They are withheld rather than served: a subject's general coverage is not this event's reporting, and serving it under this record's label would be worse than serving nothing. That is a count, not a gap.","sampledForSubject":4,"served":0,"withheldNotEventRelevant":4,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["election"],"questionSet":["afd","seats","state","elections","september","berlin","votes","spd","linke","under"]},"items":[]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":418,"outlets":133,"activeDays":7,"firstSeen":"2026-07-17","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-09-20","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-07-17","end":"2026-09-20","activeDays":7,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 7 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":2581,"outlets":330,"activeDays":59,"since":"2026-03-31","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-09-22","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["europe_politics"],"asserts":{"launch-release":115,"utterance":89,"election":86,"military-action":83,"meeting-visit":62,"acquisition":30},"assertionCoverage":0.244,"movesWith":[{"name":"france","together":719,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"]},{"name":"european union","together":628,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"],"verbs":{"sanction-trade":3}},{"name":"russia","together":472,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"]},{"name":"italy","together":431,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"]},{"name":"spanish","together":387,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"]},{"name":"ukraine","together":385,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"]},{"name":"netherlands","together":314,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"]},{"name":"ai","together":569}],"movesWithLabels":["france","european union","russia","italy","spanish","ukraine","netherlands","ai"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"insufficient_history","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":855,"periods":[{"period":"2026-09","mentions":119},{"period":"2026","mentions":736}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"none-captured","rowsNote":"Measured zero: no priced capture rides \"germany\" in this build.","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Election: Germany","slug":"election-germany","questionCount":20,"questions":["Will AfD win the most seats in 0 German state elections in September 2026?","Will AfD win the most seats in 1 German state election in September 2026?","Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or SPD?","Berlin State Election: More Votes to Linke or AfD?","Berlin State Election: Grüne Over/Under 17%?","Berlin State Election: SPD Over/Under 13%?"],"mentions":855,"firstSeen":"2026-07-17","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-09-20","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-09-26","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"germany\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Election: Germany\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[]},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"rising","at":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-17T14:54:20.671544+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-17T14:54:20.671544+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-09-26T14:52:38.279544+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-09-26T14:52:38.279544+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00"}]}},"sectionOrder":["definition","primaryDocuments","claims","theRecord","ourAttention","marketSensor","refereeGrades","ourRead","changeLog","limits","verify","provenance"],"definition":{"key":"definition","heading":"What this record is","state":"templated-from-structure","whatThisIs":"A topic on our watch list — we track its coverage across 13 domains, including World Wires, Venture Capital and Defense Aerospace.","whyTracked":"We hold 418 documents from 133 outlets over 7 active days. It runs through 13 coverage domains we watch, including World Wires, Venture Capital, Defense Aerospace. 20 market questions price outcomes under the event bound to it.","coverageSince":{"date":"2026-07-17","status":"observed","text":"Our first document on this subject is dated Jul 17, 2026; the count above is everything since."},"notCovered":["Our attention, not the world's state. Every count here is a count of what our own sweep collected about germany.","133 outlets in our declared source universe — not the whole internet.","Market prices are the venue's number, cited and graded as an outside sensor. We publish no probability of our own on this record."],"tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"passed":["a claim carried by three or more separate publishers","at least one market question bound to this record"],"failed":["a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself"],"conditions":[{"id":"first-party-read","text":"a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself","passed":false},{"id":"independent-origins","text":"a claim carried by three or more separate publishers","passed":true},{"id":"bound-market-question","text":"at least one market question bound to this record","passed":true}]},"stateNote":"No written definition yet — this line is generated from what we hold, so it cannot claim more than the record does."},"claims":{"key":"claims","heading":"What independent sources agree on","state":"corroborated","source":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these rows","window":{"start":"2026-09-20","end":"2026-09-26"},"counts":{"clustersTotal":1046,"corroborated":1,"published":60,"clustersWithAggregatorOrigin":24,"clustersWithClaimUrl":60,"originsWithReceiptUrl":451,"originsPublished":454,"recordRows":10,"singleSource":9},"publishedTiers":["strong","moderate"],"dropped":0,"note":"10 claims about this subject are on the maintained record for the window Sep 20, 2026 – Sep 26, 2026 — 1 carried by three or more separate publishers, 9 carried by one and labelled single-source. The count is of publishers, not of truth: many outlets echoing one official statement is a wide echo, not a second check.","singleSourceVisible":true,"rows":[{"id":"4ae92760bd89","clusterKey":"4ae92760bd89","claim":"Chancellor Merz calls Germany state elections results a ‘disaster,’ as far-right surges again","claimUrl":"https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260920-germany-s-far-right-afd-makes-strong-gains-in-two-state-elections","tier":"strong","tierLabel":"Cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Four or more separate publishers carried this. Wire copies and republished copies are collapsed first — but publishers all working from one official statement still count separately, so this is agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":9,"origins":["AP","Reuters","bbc.co.uk","euronews.com","france24.com","news.google.com","luxtimes.lu","nytimes.com","time.com"],"wires":["AP","Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["document","entity"],"originsSummary":"9 separate publishers · 2 wires (AP, Reuters)","marketLine":null},{"id":"383578a61583","clusterKey":"383578a61583","claim":"US fighter jet crashes at air base in western Germany","claimUrl":"https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/sep/22/fighter-jet-crashes-germany","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the 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France","claimUrl":"https://www.euronews.com/2026/09/24/germany-seeks-wider-made-with-europe-rules-setting-up-clash-with-france","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["euronews.com","politico.eu"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-24","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers","marketLine":null},{"id":"e6812e202fae","clusterKey":"e6812e202fae","claim":"Planet Opens New Berlin Manufacturing Facility for Pelican Build-Out","claimUrl":"https://www.satellitetoday.com/manufacturing/2026/09/22/planet-opens-new-berlin-manufacturing-facility-for-pelican-build-out/","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["satellitetoday.com","via satellite"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-22","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers","marketLine":null},{"id":"faeca3f868ef","clusterKey":"faeca3f868ef","claim":"Five takeaways from Germany's regional elections after far-right gains","claimUrl":"https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260921-five-takeaways-from-germany-s-regional-elections-after-far-right-gains","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["Reuters","france24.com"],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-21","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers · 1 wire (Reuters)","marketLine":null},{"id":"989dd7d76021","clusterKey":"989dd7d76021","claim":"German Europe minister says Costa has lost touch with reality on EU budget","claimUrl":"https://www.politico.eu/article/germany-antonio-costa-eu-budget/?utm_source=RSS_Feed&utm_medium=RSS&utm_campaign=RSS_Syndication","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["news.google.com","politico.eu"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-22","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers","marketLine":null},{"id":"b47e53a33a2b","clusterKey":"b47e53a33a2b","claim":"Future of German chancellor hangs in the balance as two states go to polls","claimUrl":"https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/sep/20/german-chancellor-friedrich-merz-state-elections-berlin-far-right","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["news.google.com","theguardian.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers","marketLine":null},{"id":"e25c096d3696","clusterKey":"e25c096d3696","claim":"Plans progress for 200MW data center in Schladen-Werla, Germany","claimUrl":"https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/plans-progress-for-200mw-data-center-in-schladen-werla-germany/","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","independentOrigins":1,"origins":["datacenterdynamics.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-22","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"1 separate publisher","marketLine":null}]},"primaryDocuments":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[],"key":"primaryDocuments","heading":"What the issuing authorities publish","undatedCount":0,"undatedNote":null},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","heading":"What prediction markets price","state":"priced","joinPerformed":true,"eventSlug":"election-germany","counts":{"eventReceipts":6,"entityCaptures":0,"served":6,"live":6,"expired":0},"newestPriceStamp":"2026-09-21","venueStatusNote":"Whether each question is still open at its venue is not verified in this record — the receipt carries the venue's own status as unknown.","note":"6 market questions ride this record, newest price stamp Sep 21, 2026. A price is the venue's number, cited as one outside sensor and graded against how reality resolved; it is never a probability of ours.","rows":[{"question":"Will AfD win the most seats in 0 German state elections in September 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-afd-win-the-most-seats-in-0-german-state-elections-in-september-2026-20260630185301105","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.05,"pricedAt":"2026-09-21","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will AfD win the most seats in 1 German state election in September 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-afd-win-the-most-seats-in-1-german-state-election-in-september-2026-20260630185301106","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.05,"pricedAt":"2026-09-21","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Berlin State Election: More Votes to AfD or SPD?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/berlin-state-election-more-votes-to-afd-or-spd","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":99.95,"pricedAt":"2026-09-21","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-01-01","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Berlin State Election: More Votes to Linke or AfD?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/berlin-state-election-more-votes-to-linke-or-afd","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":99.95,"pricedAt":"2026-09-21","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-01-01","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Berlin State Election: Grüne Over/Under 17%?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/berlin-state-election-grune-over-under-17-percent","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.05,"pricedAt":"2026-09-21","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-01-01","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Berlin State Election: SPD Over/Under 13%?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/berlin-state-election-spd-over-under-13-percent","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.4,"pricedAt":"2026-09-21","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-01-01","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"}],"basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred"},"refereeGrades":{"key":"refereeGrades","heading":"How our cited sensor has scored","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the per-subject accuracy check","grades":[],"note":"We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Election: Germany has been scored, so this section can say nothing about it on its own. The scoring anyone can read is at https://sigb.ai/api/calibration-data.","where":"https://sigb.ai/api/calibration-data"},"theRecord":{"label":"The record itself","basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 7 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"],"state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":418,"outlets":133,"activeDays":7,"firstSeen":"2026-07-17","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-09-20","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-07-17","end":"2026-09-20","activeDays":7,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 7 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":2581,"outlets":330,"activeDays":59,"since":"2026-03-31","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-09-22","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["europe_politics"],"asserts":{"launch-release":115,"utterance":89,"election":86,"military-action":83,"meeting-visit":62,"acquisition":30},"assertionCoverage":0.244,"movesWith":[{"name":"france","together":719,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"]},{"name":"european union","together":628,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"],"verbs":{"sanction-trade":3}},{"name":"russia","together":472,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"]},{"name":"italy","together":431,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"]},{"name":"spanish","together":387,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"]},{"name":"ukraine","together":385,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"]},{"name":"netherlands","together":314,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"]},{"name":"ai","together":569}],"movesWithLabels":["france","european union","russia","italy","spanish","ukraine","netherlands","ai"],"provenance":"curated","key":"theRecord","heading":"What we have collected","status":"measured","basisNote":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting"},"ourAttention":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"insufficient_history","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":855,"periods":[{"period":"2026-09","mentions":119},{"period":"2026","mentions":736}],"key":"ourAttention","heading":"How closely we are watching","state":"cannot-measure","directionWord":"insufficient_history","glyph":""},"ourRead":{"key":"ourRead","heading":"Our read","basisNote":"our analysis of this record's own dated sections; ours, and labeled ours — never a forecast, and never a probability of ours","asOf":"2026-09-26","firstParty":{"state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so this record carries no document from an issuing authority. That is unmeasured, not a clean bill."},"corroboratedNow":{"state":"measured","count":10,"text":"Independent sources agree on 10 things about Election: Germany in the current window: “Chancellor Merz calls Germany state elections results a ‘disaster,’ as far-right surges again” (9 separate publishers · 2 wires (AP, Reuters), earliest Sep 20, 2026); “US fighter jet crashes at air base in western Germany” (2 separate publishers, earliest Sep 22, 2026), and 8 more on the record."},"singleSource":{"state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 4 recorded changes for Election: Germany, the most recent on Sep 26, 2026 — each one a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},"divergence":{"state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Will AfD win the most seats in 0 German state elections in September 2026?” at 0.05% (polymarket, Sep 21, 2026), while our own record holds 10 claims carried by three or more separate publishers. The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},"heldAsProvenance":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."},"inputsDropped":[{"input":"8 corroborated claim rows","why":"shown on the claims section rather than repeated in the read"},{"input":"single-source reporting","why":"no press-claims ledger exists for this subject; the corroborated feed does not publish uncleared tiers"},{"input":"entity priced captures","why":"our own sweep captured no priced row for this subject; the market rows here come from the event's venue receipts"}],"synthesis":null,"synthesisNote":"No synthesis is written for this record. A synthesis is our own paragraph over corroborated claims with receipts; until it is computed, the clauses above are the whole read and nothing is templated to look like one.","basis":[{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Chancellor Merz calls Germany state elections results a ‘disaster,’ as far-right surges again","asOf":"2026-09-20"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"US fighter jet crashes at air base in western Germany","asOf":"2026-09-22"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"German Government Selects QUDORA-Led Consortium for €122 Million ($138.8 USD) NFQC-1k Trapped-Ion Quantum Computer Project","asOf":"2026-09-24"},{"kind":"market sensor","text":"Will AfD win the most seats in 0 German state elections in September 2026? — 0.05% (polymarket)","asOf":"2026-09-21"}],"clauses":[{"key":"firstParty","label":"What the issuing authorities say","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so this record carries no document from an issuing authority. That is unmeasured, not a clean bill."},{"key":"corroboratedNow","label":"What independent sources agree on","state":"measured","count":10,"text":"Independent sources agree on 10 things about Election: Germany in the current window: “Chancellor Merz calls Germany state elections results a ‘disaster,’ as far-right surges again” (9 separate publishers · 2 wires (AP, Reuters), earliest Sep 20, 2026); “US fighter jet crashes at air base in western Germany” (2 separate publishers, earliest Sep 22, 2026), and 8 more on the record."},{"key":"singleSource","label":"What rests on one source","state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},{"key":"contradicted","label":"What contradicts","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},{"key":"changedSinceLastRead","label":"What changed","state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 4 recorded changes for Election: Germany, the most recent on Sep 26, 2026 — each one a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},{"key":"divergence","label":"The outside sensor, beside our record","state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Will AfD win the most seats in 0 German state elections in September 2026?” at 0.05% (polymarket, Sep 21, 2026), while our own record holds 10 claims carried by three or more separate publishers. The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},{"key":"heldAsProvenance","label":"Held as provenance","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"states":{"firstParty":"cannot-measure","corroboratedNow":"measured","singleSource":"cannot-measure","contradicted":"cannot-measure","changedSinceLastRead":"measured","divergence":"measured","heldAsProvenance":"cannot-measure"}},"changeLog":{"key":"changeLog","heading":"What changed, and when","state":"recorded","started":null,"note":"The ledger holds 4 recorded changes for Election: Germany, the most recent on Sep 26, 2026 — each one a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact.","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"rising","at":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-17T14:54:20.671544+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-17T14:54:20.671544+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-09-26T14:52:38.279544+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-09-26T14:52:38.279544+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00"}]},"verify":{"key":"verify","heading":"Verify it yourself","state":"measured","rest":"curl -s https://sigb.ai/api/truth/election-germany","mcp":"curl -s https://sigb.ai/api/mcp -X POST -H 'content-type: application/json' \\\n  -d '{\"jsonrpc\":\"2.0\",\"id\":1,\"method\":\"tools/call\",\"params\":{\"name\":\"get_truth_object\",\"arguments\":{\"topic\":\"election-germany\"}}}'","resource":null,"page":null,"note":"This page, GET /api/truth/election-germany and the get_truth_object tool are assembled by one builder, so what you fetch is what you are reading."},"limits":{"key":"limits","heading":"What this record does not tell you","state":"measured","derived":[{"section":"refereeGrades","text":"How our cited sensor has scored: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the per-subject accuracy check. We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Election: Germany has"},{"section":"ourAttention","text":"How closely we are watching: we could not measure it."},{"section":"ourRead.firstParty","text":"What the issuing authorities say: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the first-party read. No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so this record carries no document from an issuing authority. That is unmeasured, not a clean bill."},{"section":"ourRead.singleSource","text":"What rests on one source: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the single-source tier. We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},{"section":"ourRead.contradicted","text":"What contradicts: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is no polarity-comparable pair. We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},{"section":"ourRead.heldAsProvenance","text":"Held as provenance: we could not measure it. No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"standing":[],"note":"6 sections on this record came back \"we could not look\". 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