{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"election-france","title":"The Election: France record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"france","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"france\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Election: France\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity.","candidatesConsidered":["france"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":[],"actionClass":"election"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-09-26","currency":{"state":"not-reliably-current","asOf":"2026-09-15","basis":{"asOf":"2026-09-26","newestObservationAt":"2026-09-15","newestObservationBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","ageDays":11,"expectedCadenceDays":10,"cadenceBasis":"this record's own observed cadence — 8 active day(s) over a 83-day window","graceMultiple":1,"wallMultiple":3,"blindSources":[],"retiredAt":null,"recordState":"measured"},"sentence":"This record is not reliably current: nothing new has been observed since 2026-09-15, 11 days ago, against its expected cadence of about one item every 10 days."},"generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:26:29.232977+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/election-france and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://sigb.ai/api/truth/election-france so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"france\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"none-event-relevant","note":"Measured zero after event-relevance filtering: we sampled 6 attributable rows for \"france\" and not one could be shown to be about \"Election: France\" — each carried the subject's name and nothing else this record is about. They are withheld rather than served: a subject's general coverage is not this event's reporting, and serving it under this record's label would be worse than serving nothing. That is a count, not a gap.","sampledForSubject":6,"served":0,"withheldNotEventRelevant":6,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["election"],"questionSet":["marine","pen","french","presidential","ric","zemmour","david","lisnard","laurent","wauquiez","gabriel","attal","ois","hollande"]},"items":[]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":374,"outlets":135,"activeDays":8,"firstSeen":"2026-06-25","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-09-15","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-06-25","end":"2026-09-15","activeDays":8,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 8 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":2691,"outlets":362,"activeDays":69,"since":"2026-03-11","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-09-22","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["europe_politics"],"asserts":{"utterance":132,"meeting-visit":126,"launch-release":104,"military-action":78,"sanction-trade":64,"election":47},"assertionCoverage":0.282,"movesWith":[{"name":"germany","together":719,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"]},{"name":"european union","together":580,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"],"verbs":{"sanction-trade":7}},{"name":"spanish","together":485,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"],"verbs":{"acquisition":2}},{"name":"italy","together":475,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"]},{"name":"russia","together":428,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"],"verbs":{"sanction-trade":3}},{"name":"united kingdom","together":618},{"name":"united states","together":508},{"name":"ai","together":505}],"movesWithLabels":["germany","european union","spanish","italy","russia","united kingdom","united states","ai"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"insufficient_history","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":6830,"periods":[{"period":"2027","mentions":4465},{"period":"2026-12","mentions":36},{"period":"2026","mentions":2329}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"none-captured","rowsNote":"Measured zero: no priced capture rides \"france\" in this build.","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Election: France","slug":"election-france","questionCount":25,"questions":["Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?","Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?","Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?","Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election?","Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?","Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?"],"mentions":6830,"firstSeen":"2026-06-25","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-09-15","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-09-26","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"france\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Election: France\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[]},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"rising","at":"2026-09-21T14:52:19.336181+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-19T14:48:29.760958+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-09-21T14:52:19.336181+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-19T14:48:29.760958+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-09-23T14:55:06.081872+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-21T14:52:19.336181+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-09-23T14:55:06.081872+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-21T14:52:19.336181+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"rising","at":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-23T14:55:06.081872+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-23T14:55:06.081872+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-09-26T14:52:38.279544+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-09-26T14:52:38.279544+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00"}]}},"sectionOrder":["definition","primaryDocuments","claims","theRecord","ourAttention","marketSensor","refereeGrades","ourRead","changeLog","limits","verify","provenance"],"definition":{"key":"definition","heading":"What this record is","state":"templated-from-structure","whatThisIs":"A topic on our watch list — we track its coverage across 12 domains, including World Wires, Weather Climate and Media Entertainment.","whyTracked":"We hold 374 documents from 135 outlets over 8 active days. It runs through 12 coverage domains we watch, including World Wires, Weather Climate, Media Entertainment. 25 market questions price outcomes under the event bound to it.","coverageSince":{"date":"2026-06-25","status":"observed","text":"Our first document on this subject is dated Jun 25, 2026; the count above is everything since."},"notCovered":["Our attention, not the world's state. Every count here is a count of what our own sweep collected about france.","135 outlets in our declared source universe — not the whole internet.","Market prices are the venue's number, cited and graded as an outside sensor. We publish no probability of our own on this record."],"tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"passed":["a claim carried by three or more separate publishers","at least one market question bound to this record"],"failed":["a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself"],"conditions":[{"id":"first-party-read","text":"a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself","passed":false},{"id":"independent-origins","text":"a claim carried by three or more separate publishers","passed":true},{"id":"bound-market-question","text":"at least one market question bound to this record","passed":true}]},"stateNote":"No written definition yet — this line is generated from what we hold, so it cannot claim more than the record does."},"claims":{"key":"claims","heading":"What independent sources agree on","state":"corroborated","source":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these rows","window":{"start":"2026-09-20","end":"2026-09-26"},"counts":{"clustersTotal":1046,"corroborated":4,"published":60,"clustersWithAggregatorOrigin":24,"clustersWithClaimUrl":60,"originsWithReceiptUrl":451,"originsPublished":454,"recordRows":12,"singleSource":8},"publishedTiers":["strong","moderate"],"dropped":6,"note":"12 claims about this subject are on the maintained record for the window Sep 20, 2026 – Sep 26, 2026 — 4 carried by three or more separate publishers, 8 carried by one and labelled single-source. The count is of publishers, not of truth: many outlets echoing one official statement is a wide echo, not a second check.","singleSourceVisible":true,"rows":[{"id":"6403c83b1a8d","clusterKey":"6403c83b1a8d","claim":"Replay: Macron, Carney hail new chapter on France-Canada ties at St. Pierre and Miquelon meeting","claimUrl":"https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/09/20/macron-and-carney-vow-closer-france-canada-ties-amid-strained-us-relations","tier":"strong","tierLabel":"Cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Four or more separate publishers carried this. Wire copies and republished copies are collapsed first — but publishers all working from one official statement still count separately, so this is agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":4,"origins":["AP","euronews.com","france24.com","theguardian.com"],"wires":["AP"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["document","entity"],"originsSummary":"4 separate publishers · 1 wire (AP)","marketLine":null},{"id":"f8dc3d353fb7","clusterKey":"f8dc3d353fb7","claim":"Emmanuel Macron and Pope Leo XIV set out clashing world views at first meeting in France","claimUrl":"https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cmq8j904212po?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=rss","tier":"strong","tierLabel":"Cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Four or more separate publishers carried this. Wire copies and republished copies are collapsed first — but publishers all working from one official statement still count separately, so this is agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":4,"origins":["bbc.co.uk","euronews.com","france24.com","en.tempo.co"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-25","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"4 separate publishers","marketLine":null},{"id":"44ef0982c7b6","clusterKey":"44ef0982c7b6","claim":"France to summon Iran envoy after language centre closure in Tehran","claimUrl":"https://www.france24.com/en/middle-east/20260920-iran-closes-french-language-centre-in-tehran-for-illegal-acts","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":3,"origins":["Reuters","aljazeera.com","france24.com"],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"3 separate publishers · 1 wire (Reuters)","marketLine":null},{"id":"b09a102882c9","clusterKey":"b09a102882c9","claim":"France to send military to protect Saudi Arabia on Red Sea oil route, Macron says","claimUrl":"https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/09/france-send-military-protect-saudi-arabia-red-sea-oil-route-macron-says","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":3,"origins":["Reuters","france24.com","twz.com"],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-24","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"3 separate publishers · 1 wire (Reuters)","marketLine":null},{"id":"0757af25d359","clusterKey":"0757af25d359","claim":"Macron asks European Commission head to temporarily ease European fuel rules","claimUrl":"https://www.france24.com/en/video/20260922-macron-calls-on-eu-to-tackle-soaring-energy-prices","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":3,"origins":["france24.com","news.google.com","politico.eu"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-21","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"3 separate publishers","marketLine":null},{"id":"5aa6f06da15a","clusterKey":"5aa6f06da15a","claim":"Six French Islamic State suspects could face death penalty as Iraqi court opens trial","claimUrl":"https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/article-909183","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["jpost.com","middleeasteye.net"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers","marketLine":null},{"id":"74f50a40e10e","clusterKey":"74f50a40e10e","claim":"Latvian PM opposes deal to lift sanctions on Russia-linked billionaires Usmanov and Fridman","claimUrl":"https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/09/22/eu-renews-russia-sanctions-but-removes-usmanov-at-frances-request","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["Reuters","euronews.com"],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-21","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers · 1 wire (Reuters)","marketLine":null},{"id":"954d10997f36","clusterKey":"954d10997f36","claim":"Germany seeks wider 'Made with Europe' rules, setting up clash with France","claimUrl":"https://www.euronews.com/2026/09/24/germany-seeks-wider-made-with-europe-rules-setting-up-clash-with-france","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["euronews.com","politico.eu"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-24","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers","marketLine":null},{"id":"b7586dac4926","clusterKey":"b7586dac4926","claim":"EU sanctions former RT France chief Xenia Fedorova over pro-Russian propaganda","claimUrl":"https://www.euronews.com/2026/09/24/eu-sanctions-former-rt-france-chief-xenia-fedorova-over-pro-russian-propaganda","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["euronews.com","france24.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-24","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers","marketLine":null},{"id":"c0c5a40dc506","clusterKey":"c0c5a40dc506","claim":"Macron denies France received CIA warning of Russian drone attack","claimUrl":"https://www.euronews.com/2026/09/24/french-president-emmanuel-macron-denies-claims-the-cia-informed-france-of-a-possible-russi","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["dailysabah.com","euronews.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-24","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers","marketLine":null},{"id":"d05590ca746c","clusterKey":"d05590ca746c","claim":"France mulls new UN Security Council resolution on Hormuz, diplomats say","claimUrl":"https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2026/09/france-mulls-new-un-security-council-resolution-hormuz-diplomats-say","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["Reuters","gcaptain.com"],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-22","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers · 1 wire (Reuters)","marketLine":null},{"id":"f407187878f2","clusterKey":"f407187878f2","claim":"Pope Leo visits France for first papal visit in 18 years – Europe live","claimUrl":"https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20260925-live-pope-france-first-state-visit-18-years","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["france24.com","theguardian.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-25","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers","marketLine":null}]},"primaryDocuments":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[],"key":"primaryDocuments","heading":"What the issuing authorities publish","undatedCount":0,"undatedNote":null},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","heading":"What prediction markets price","state":"priced","joinPerformed":true,"eventSlug":"election-france","counts":{"eventReceipts":6,"entityCaptures":0,"served":6,"live":6,"expired":0},"newestPriceStamp":"2026-09-26","venueStatusNote":null,"note":"6 market questions ride this record, newest price stamp Sep 26, 2026. A price is the venue's number, cited as one outside sensor and graded against how reality resolved; it is never a probability of ours.","rows":[{"question":"Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-marine-le-pen-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":38.35,"pricedAt":"2026-09-26","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2028-01-01","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-ric-zemmour-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":1.05,"pricedAt":"2026-09-26","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-04-30","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-david-lisnard-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":7.25,"pricedAt":"2026-09-26","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2028-01-01","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-laurent-wauquiez-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.05,"pricedAt":"2026-09-26","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2028-01-01","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-gabriel-attal-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":2.15,"pricedAt":"2026-09-26","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2028-01-01","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-franois-hollande-win-the-2027-french-presidential-election","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":6.35,"pricedAt":"2026-09-26","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2028-01-01","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"}],"basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred"},"refereeGrades":{"key":"refereeGrades","heading":"How our cited sensor has scored","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the per-subject accuracy check","grades":[],"note":"We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Election: France has been scored, so this section can say nothing about it on its own. The scoring anyone can read is at https://sigb.ai/api/calibration-data.","where":"https://sigb.ai/api/calibration-data"},"theRecord":{"label":"The record itself","basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 8 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"],"state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":374,"outlets":135,"activeDays":8,"firstSeen":"2026-06-25","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-09-15","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-06-25","end":"2026-09-15","activeDays":8,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 8 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":2691,"outlets":362,"activeDays":69,"since":"2026-03-11","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-09-22","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["europe_politics"],"asserts":{"utterance":132,"meeting-visit":126,"launch-release":104,"military-action":78,"sanction-trade":64,"election":47},"assertionCoverage":0.282,"movesWith":[{"name":"germany","together":719,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"]},{"name":"european union","together":580,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"],"verbs":{"sanction-trade":7}},{"name":"spanish","together":485,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"],"verbs":{"acquisition":2}},{"name":"italy","together":475,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"]},{"name":"russia","together":428,"sharedDomains":["europe_politics"],"verbs":{"sanction-trade":3}},{"name":"united kingdom","together":618},{"name":"united states","together":508},{"name":"ai","together":505}],"movesWithLabels":["germany","european union","spanish","italy","russia","united kingdom","united states","ai"],"provenance":"curated","key":"theRecord","heading":"What we have collected","status":"measured","basisNote":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting"},"ourAttention":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"insufficient_history","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":6830,"periods":[{"period":"2027","mentions":4465},{"period":"2026-12","mentions":36},{"period":"2026","mentions":2329}],"key":"ourAttention","heading":"How closely we are watching","state":"cannot-measure","directionWord":"insufficient_history","glyph":""},"ourRead":{"key":"ourRead","heading":"Our read","basisNote":"our analysis of this record's own dated sections; ours, and labeled ours — never a forecast, and never a probability of ours","asOf":"2026-09-26","firstParty":{"state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so this record carries no document from an issuing authority. That is unmeasured, not a clean bill."},"corroboratedNow":{"state":"measured","count":12,"text":"Independent sources agree on 12 things about Election: France in the current window: “Replay: Macron, Carney hail new chapter on France-Canada ties at St. Pierre and Miquelon meeting” (4 separate publishers · 1 wire (AP), earliest Sep 20, 2026); “Emmanuel Macron and Pope Leo XIV set out clashing world views at first meeting in France” (4 separate publishers, earliest Sep 25, 2026), and 10 more on the record."},"singleSource":{"state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 8 recorded changes for Election: France, the most recent on Sep 26, 2026 — each one a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},"divergence":{"state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Will Éric Zemmour win the 2027 French presidential election?” at 1.05% (polymarket, Sep 26, 2026), while our own record holds 12 claims carried by three or more separate publishers. 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