{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"economic-indicator-inflation","title":"The Economic indicator: Inflation record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","asOf":"2026-08-08","generatedAt":"2026-08-08T23:26:25.200604+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/economic-indicator-inflation and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/economic-indicator-inflation so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source","items":[{"title":"New York Fed: Inflation expectations improved in July","url":"https://bankingjournal.aba.com/2026/08/new-york-fed-inflation-expectations-improved-in-july/","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Inflation is slowing, but the cost of living story is more complicated - The Conversation","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxPOVRXMXlFZ2JHSnJva0V5bGFqcC0tS0tXeXdrd0xyRm0zMmg4d3pVX3RlUjJkdU8zemNlWHBtWURYdXZpR0ptYk9qV0RFbTROZzRsODN6bVg5cFQ4LWNKZm5sYzhFbU5JRDlYRjd3QWNDMzhEdG9RVkFoX0JucnhPVmNsYjBFWmtDSWRuekppLVJkRTFyZElBRUNERDZST3FvaWVnUmdOQQ?oc=5&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Brick deliveries slump as material inflation rises - Construction News","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMirwFBVV95cUxNRXdxc1E0Z1dPR2liRkd3dE9fTVZycG1hdmFkNUd6T3hHa3ZQWmFLc2I0SjM5QVpWOTZTN1F3azNGTXk2WFYzUzZ6SzdYYW1Eb2h2eWhBQ2x2UzJRa1NBT1FyRGdkM3A0WUxBeHpiTWFVZ2d6NTNIN2lqRVhoLWRnV09SWlpNa0lSNFN6eVRzSEFPdXNqUXVKeVE3a18wbG5RUmpzZlFTMXc1SkRBYnFF?oc=5&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Construction Material Inflation Outpaces Bid Prices - ConstructConnect News","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMingFBVV95cUxNRHVvbTEyX0d4OGJtMnl5MkJya1kyTTJ3NzFsZjR1VXhFcE5malpiV2hvekxkTzdON1hIczlkNXF3UUlvUXJ4Ulo5ZDZrdldvYm5Ja0lDc0p1Q093aDNmcFdZX253clpGYTFtV2NMVFdJN254QXhPTnotd2ZmdEdwdl9KemJxX0tTN2ZnTVdJcFJFUWpjemd6c3lSUkN2d9IBngFBVV95cUxNRHVvbTEyX0d4OGJtMnl5MkJya1kyTTJ3NzFsZjR1VXhFcE5malpiV2hvekxkTzdON1hIczlkNXF3UUlvUXJ4Ulo5ZDZrdldvYm5Ja0lDc0p1Q093aDNmcFdZX253clpGYTFtV2NMVFdJN254QXhPTnotd2ZmdEdwdl9KemJxX0tTN2ZnTVdJcFJFUWpjemd6c3lSUkN2dw?oc=5&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":516,"outlets":110,"activeDays":52,"firstSeen":"2026-04-04","lastSeen":"2026-08-09","homeDomains":[],"asserts":{"econ-release":98,"rate-decision":30,"utterance":22,"military-action":8,"acquisition":7,"meeting-visit":7},"assertionCoverage":0.38,"movesWith":[{"label":"ai","n":144,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"oil","n":119,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"iran","n":107,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"interest rates","n":102,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"federal reserve","n":59,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"trump","n":59,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"hormuz","n":56,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"middle east","n":56,"sharedDomains":[]}],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"fading","baselineRelativePct":-33,"reading":"Our coverage of Economic indicator: Inflation is 33% below its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":84,"eventMentions":4003,"periods":[{"period":"2027","mentions":1148},{"period":"2026","mentions":2855}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","current":[{"question":"Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or more in July?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/july-inflation-us-monthly-20260714151042665","source":"Polymarket (macro)","probabilityPct":56,"change24hPct":null,"pricedAt":"2026-08-08","capturedAt":"2026-07-15","deadline":null,"deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will Argentina's monthly inflation in July 2026 be between 1.8% and 2.0%?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/argentina-monthly-inflation-july-20260714204403042","source":"Polymarket (macro)","probabilityPct":29,"change24hPct":null,"pricedAt":"2026-08-08","capturedAt":"2026-07-16","deadline":null,"deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 4.00% and 4.49%?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/mexico-annual-inflation-2026","source":"Polymarket (macro)","probabilityPct":16,"change24hPct":null,"pricedAt":"2026-08-08","capturedAt":"2026-07-31","deadline":null,"deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will Canada’s 2026 inflation be between 1.0% and 1.4%?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/canada-annual-inflation-2026","source":"Polymarket (macro)","probabilityPct":4,"change24hPct":-32,"pricedAt":null,"capturedAt":"2026-07-31","deadline":null,"deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Economic indicator: Inflation","slug":"economic-indicator-inflation","questionCount":24,"questions":["Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.50% and 2.24%?","Will Argentina’s annual inflation be less than 20%?","Will the Eurozone's 2026 Annual Inflation be between 1.0% and 1.2%?","Will annual inflation be 3.3% or less in May?","Will annual inflation be 3.4% in May?"],"mentions":4003,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","lastSeen":"2026-07-21"}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-08","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery."},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"rising","at":"2026-07-29T16:14:44.489092+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-25T15:00:16.995106+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-08-02T15:08:36.484814+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-29T16:14:44.489092+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"fading","at":"2026-08-04T15:37:19.750066+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-02T15:08:36.484814+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"fading","to":"steady","at":"2026-08-05T15:36:15.049741+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-04T15:37:19.750066+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"rising","at":"2026-08-06T15:33:39.246619+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-05T15:36:15.049741+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-08-07T15:06:56.050386+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-06T15:33:39.246619+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"fading","at":"2026-08-08T15:01:41.302777+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-07T15:06:56.050386+00:00"}]}}}