{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"disaster-event-earthquake","title":"The Disaster: Earthquake record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"earthquake","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"earthquake\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Disaster: Earthquake\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity.","candidatesConsidered":["earthquake"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":[],"actionClass":"disaster"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-09-26","currency":{"state":"current","asOf":"2026-09-25","basis":{"asOf":"2026-09-26","newestObservationAt":"2026-09-25","newestObservationBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","ageDays":1,"expectedCadenceDays":18,"cadenceBasis":"this record's own observed cadence — 7 active day(s) over a 125-day window","graceMultiple":1,"wallMultiple":3,"blindSources":[],"retiredAt":null,"recordState":"measured"},"sentence":"This record is current: the newest source item is from 2026-09-25, inside its expected cadence of about one item every 18 days."},"generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:26:29.232977+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/disaster-event-earthquake and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://sigb.ai/api/truth/disaster-event-earthquake so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"earthquake\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"subject-not-in-tracked-entity-set","note":"unmeasured — \"earthquake\" is this record's subject, but it is not in the current tracked-entity set, so we hold no sampled coverage to attribute. This is not a measured zero.","sampledForSubject":0,"served":0,"withheldNotEventRelevant":0,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["disaster"],"questionSet":["above","magnitude","biggest","september","under","exactly","higher","worldwide","may"]},"items":[]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":986,"outlets":29,"activeDays":7,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-09-25","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-05-24","end":"2026-09-25","activeDays":7,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 7 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":1232,"outlets":105,"activeDays":157,"since":"2026-04-06","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-09-22","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["geophysical"],"asserts":{"disaster":997,"utterance":12,"military-action":11,"launch-release":9,"election":4,"meeting-visit":3},"assertionCoverage":0.849,"movesWith":[{"name":"indonesia","together":141,"sharedDomains":["geophysical"]},{"name":"philippine","together":104,"sharedDomains":["geophysical"]},{"name":"philippines","together":103,"sharedDomains":["geophysical"]},{"name":"iceland","together":177},{"name":"japan","together":112},{"name":"alaska","together":43,"sharedDomains":["geophysical"]},{"name":"china","together":79},{"name":"immigration","together":63}],"movesWithLabels":["indonesia","philippine","philippines","iceland","japan","alaska","china","immigration"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":1133,"periods":[{"period":"2027","mentions":192},{"period":"2026-09","mentions":21},{"period":"2026","mentions":920}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"subject-not-in-tracked-entity-set","rowsNote":"unmeasured — \"earthquake\" is this record's subject, but it is not in the current tracked-entity set, so we hold no sampled coverage to attribute. This is not a measured zero.","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Disaster: Earthquake","slug":"disaster-event-earthquake","questionCount":21,"questions":["9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?","Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?","Will the biggest earthquake on September 25, 2026 be under 5.3?","Will the biggest earthquake on September 25, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4?","Will the biggest earthquake on September 25, 2026 be 6.1 or more?","Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?"],"mentions":1133,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-09-25","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-09-26","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"earthquake\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Disaster: Earthquake\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[]},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"none-recorded","note":"Measured zero: the ledger holds no coverage-state transition for \"earthquake\". We do not backfill history we did not record.","transitions":[]}},"sectionOrder":["definition","primaryDocuments","claims","theRecord","ourAttention","marketSensor","refereeGrades","ourRead","changeLog","limits","verify","provenance"],"definition":{"key":"definition","heading":"What this record is","state":"written","whatThisIs":"Sudden ground shaking from shifts in the Earth's crust; tracked for disaster, insurance, and infrastructure impact.","whyTracked":"We hold 986 documents from 29 outlets over 7 active days. 21 market questions price outcomes under the event bound to it.","coverageSince":{"date":"2026-05-24","status":"observed","text":"Our first document on this subject is dated May 24, 2026; the count above is everything since."},"notCovered":["Our attention, not the world's state. Every count here is a count of what our own sweep collected about earthquake.","29 outlets in our declared source universe — not the whole internet.","Market prices are the venue's number, cited and graded as an outside sensor. We publish no probability of our own on this record."],"tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"passed":["a claim carried by three or more separate publishers","at least one market question bound to this record"],"failed":["a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself"],"conditions":[{"id":"first-party-read","text":"a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself","passed":false},{"id":"independent-origins","text":"a claim carried by three or more separate publishers","passed":true},{"id":"bound-market-question","text":"at least one market question bound to this record","passed":true}]},"stateNote":"Written definition, from the curated orientation glossary."},"claims":{"key":"claims","heading":"What independent sources agree on","state":"corroborated","source":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these rows","window":{"start":"2026-09-20","end":"2026-09-26"},"counts":{"clustersTotal":1046,"corroborated":0,"published":60,"clustersWithAggregatorOrigin":24,"clustersWithClaimUrl":60,"originsWithReceiptUrl":451,"originsPublished":454,"recordRows":8,"singleSource":8},"publishedTiers":["strong","moderate"],"dropped":0,"note":"8 claims about this subject are on the maintained record for the window Sep 20, 2026 – Sep 26, 2026 — 0 carried by three or more separate publishers, 8 carried by one and labelled single-source. The count is of publishers, not of truth: many outlets echoing one official statement is a wide echo, not a second check.","singleSourceVisible":true,"rows":[{"id":"bae69dc7a5dc","clusterKey":"bae69dc7a5dc","claim":"Qatar PM describes fallout of US-Israel war on Iran as ‘earthquake’","claimUrl":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/20/qatari-pm-warns-against-cycles-of-escalation-in-the-middle-east?traffic_source=rss","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["aljazeera.com","news.google.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["document","entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers","marketLine":null},{"id":"334883de2bd6","clusterKey":"334883de2bd6","claim":"M5.3 earthquake — 64 km W of Cafayate, Argentina","claimUrl":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiq2","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","independentOrigins":1,"origins":["earthquake.usgs.gov"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"1 separate publisher","marketLine":null},{"id":"3857b59cd83c","clusterKey":"3857b59cd83c","claim":"M4.9 earthquake — 26 km SE of Saimbeyli, Turkey","claimUrl":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiui","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","independentOrigins":1,"origins":["earthquake.usgs.gov"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-21","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["document","entity"],"originsSummary":"1 separate publisher","marketLine":null},{"id":"431fa44aea7f","clusterKey":"431fa44aea7f","claim":"M5.7 earthquake — 180 km NW of Hihifo, Tonga","claimUrl":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tip2","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","independentOrigins":1,"origins":["earthquake.usgs.gov"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["document","entity"],"originsSummary":"1 separate publisher","marketLine":null},{"id":"9a3a3bc91c37","clusterKey":"9a3a3bc91c37","claim":"M5.5 earthquake — 35 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia","claimUrl":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiju","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","independentOrigins":1,"origins":["earthquake.usgs.gov"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["document","entity"],"originsSummary":"1 separate publisher","marketLine":null},{"id":"ccd62c41598b","clusterKey":"ccd62c41598b","claim":"M5.3 earthquake — 72 km NW of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea","claimUrl":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiqc","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","independentOrigins":1,"origins":["earthquake.usgs.gov"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["document","entity"],"originsSummary":"1 separate publisher","marketLine":null},{"id":"e6768cf6a37e","clusterKey":"e6768cf6a37e","claim":"M5.3 earthquake — Reykjanes Ridge","claimUrl":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tild","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","independentOrigins":1,"origins":["earthquake.usgs.gov"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["document","entity"],"originsSummary":"1 separate publisher","marketLine":null},{"id":"eca133d50dee","clusterKey":"eca133d50dee","claim":"M5.0 earthquake — South Sandwich Islands region","claimUrl":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tipl","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","independentOrigins":1,"origins":["earthquake.usgs.gov"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"1 separate publisher","marketLine":null}]},"primaryDocuments":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[],"key":"primaryDocuments","heading":"What the issuing authorities publish","undatedCount":0,"undatedNote":null},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","heading":"What prediction markets price","state":"priced","joinPerformed":true,"eventSlug":"disaster-event-earthquake","counts":{"eventReceipts":6,"entityCaptures":0,"served":6,"live":2,"expired":4},"newestPriceStamp":"2026-09-26","venueStatusNote":null,"note":"6 market questions ride this record, newest price stamp Sep 26, 2026 — 2 still open by their own deadline, 4 past it and kept as recorded. A price is the venue's number, cited as one outside sensor and graded against how reality resolved; it is never a probability of ours.","rows":[{"question":"9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/9pt0-or-above-earthquake-before-2027","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":3.1,"pricedAt":"2026-09-19","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-02-01","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/magnitude-6pt5-earthquake-in-la-before-2027","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":3.2,"pricedAt":"2026-09-17","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-01-01","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will the biggest earthquake on September 25, 2026 be under 5.3?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/biggest-earthquake-2026-09-25-under-5-3","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":24.5,"pricedAt":"2026-09-26","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-09-26","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will the biggest earthquake on September 25, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/biggest-earthquake-2026-09-25-5-3-to-5-4","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":24,"pricedAt":"2026-09-26","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-09-26","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will the biggest earthquake on September 25, 2026 be 6.1 or more?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/biggest-earthquake-2026-09-25-6-1-plus","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":75,"pricedAt":"2026-09-26","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-09-26","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-exactly-1-earthquake-of-magnitude-6pt5-or-higher-worldwide-from-may-18-24","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":97.8,"pricedAt":"2026-05-24","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-05-24","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"}],"basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred"},"refereeGrades":{"key":"refereeGrades","heading":"How our cited sensor has scored","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the per-subject accuracy check","grades":[],"note":"We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Disaster: Earthquake has been scored, so this section can say nothing about it on its own. The scoring anyone can read is at https://sigb.ai/api/calibration-data.","where":"https://sigb.ai/api/calibration-data"},"theRecord":{"label":"The record itself","basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 7 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"],"state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":986,"outlets":29,"activeDays":7,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-09-25","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-05-24","end":"2026-09-25","activeDays":7,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 7 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":1232,"outlets":105,"activeDays":157,"since":"2026-04-06","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-09-22","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["geophysical"],"asserts":{"disaster":997,"utterance":12,"military-action":11,"launch-release":9,"election":4,"meeting-visit":3},"assertionCoverage":0.849,"movesWith":[{"name":"indonesia","together":141,"sharedDomains":["geophysical"]},{"name":"philippine","together":104,"sharedDomains":["geophysical"]},{"name":"philippines","together":103,"sharedDomains":["geophysical"]},{"name":"iceland","together":177},{"name":"japan","together":112},{"name":"alaska","together":43,"sharedDomains":["geophysical"]},{"name":"china","together":79},{"name":"immigration","together":63}],"movesWithLabels":["indonesia","philippine","philippines","iceland","japan","alaska","china","immigration"],"provenance":"curated","key":"theRecord","heading":"What we have collected","status":"measured","basisNote":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting"},"ourAttention":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":1133,"periods":[{"period":"2027","mentions":192},{"period":"2026-09","mentions":21},{"period":"2026","mentions":920}],"key":"ourAttention","heading":"How closely we are watching","state":"cannot-measure","directionWord":"steady","glyph":"→"},"ourRead":{"key":"ourRead","heading":"Our read","basisNote":"our analysis of this record's own dated sections; ours, and labeled ours — never a forecast, and never a probability of ours","asOf":"2026-09-26","firstParty":{"state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so this record carries no document from an issuing authority. That is unmeasured, not a clean bill."},"corroboratedNow":{"state":"measured","count":8,"text":"Independent sources agree on 8 things about Disaster: Earthquake in the current window: “Qatar PM describes fallout of US-Israel war on Iran as ‘earthquake’” (2 separate publishers, earliest Sep 20, 2026); “M5.3 earthquake — 64 km W of Cafayate, Argentina” (1 separate publisher, earliest Sep 20, 2026), and 6 more on the record."},"singleSource":{"state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds no recorded change for Disaster: Earthquake. We do not backfill history we did not record."},"divergence":{"state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?” at 3.1% (polymarket, Sep 19, 2026), while our own record holds 8 claims carried by three or more separate publishers. The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},"heldAsProvenance":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."},"inputsDropped":[{"input":"6 corroborated claim rows","why":"shown on the claims section rather than repeated in the read"},{"input":"single-source reporting","why":"no press-claims ledger exists for this subject; the corroborated feed does not publish uncleared tiers"},{"input":"entity priced captures","why":"our own sweep captured no priced row for this subject; the market rows here come from the event's venue receipts"},{"input":"4 market questions past their deadline","why":"kept as historical capture, never presented as current expectation"}],"synthesis":null,"synthesisNote":"No synthesis is written for this record. A synthesis is our own paragraph over corroborated claims with receipts; until it is computed, the clauses above are the whole read and nothing is templated to look like one.","basis":[{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Qatar PM describes fallout of US-Israel war on Iran as ‘earthquake’","asOf":"2026-09-20"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"M5.3 earthquake — 64 km W of Cafayate, Argentina","asOf":"2026-09-20"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"M4.9 earthquake — 26 km SE of Saimbeyli, Turkey","asOf":"2026-09-21"},{"kind":"market sensor","text":"9.0 or above earthquake before 2027? — 3.1% (polymarket)","asOf":"2026-09-19"}],"clauses":[{"key":"firstParty","label":"What the issuing authorities say","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so this record carries no document from an issuing authority. That is unmeasured, not a clean bill."},{"key":"corroboratedNow","label":"What independent sources agree on","state":"measured","count":8,"text":"Independent sources agree on 8 things about Disaster: Earthquake in the current window: “Qatar PM describes fallout of US-Israel war on Iran as ‘earthquake’” (2 separate publishers, earliest Sep 20, 2026); “M5.3 earthquake — 64 km W of Cafayate, Argentina” (1 separate publisher, earliest Sep 20, 2026), and 6 more on the record."},{"key":"singleSource","label":"What rests on one source","state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},{"key":"contradicted","label":"What contradicts","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},{"key":"changedSinceLastRead","label":"What changed","state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds no recorded change for Disaster: Earthquake. We do not backfill history we did not record."},{"key":"divergence","label":"The outside sensor, beside our record","state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?” at 3.1% (polymarket, Sep 19, 2026), while our own record holds 8 claims carried by three or more separate publishers. The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},{"key":"heldAsProvenance","label":"Held as provenance","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"states":{"firstParty":"cannot-measure","corroboratedNow":"measured","singleSource":"cannot-measure","contradicted":"cannot-measure","changedSinceLastRead":"measured","divergence":"measured","heldAsProvenance":"cannot-measure"}},"changeLog":{"key":"changeLog","heading":"What changed, and when","state":"none-recorded","started":null,"note":"The ledger holds no recorded change for Disaster: Earthquake. We do not backfill history we did not record.","transitions":[]},"verify":{"key":"verify","heading":"Verify it yourself","state":"measured","rest":"curl -s https://sigb.ai/api/truth/disaster-event-earthquake","mcp":"curl -s https://sigb.ai/api/mcp -X POST -H 'content-type: application/json' \\\n  -d '{\"jsonrpc\":\"2.0\",\"id\":1,\"method\":\"tools/call\",\"params\":{\"name\":\"get_truth_object\",\"arguments\":{\"topic\":\"disaster-event-earthquake\"}}}'","resource":null,"page":null,"note":"This page, GET /api/truth/disaster-event-earthquake and the get_truth_object tool are assembled by one builder, so what you fetch is what you are reading."},"limits":{"key":"limits","heading":"What this record does not tell you","state":"measured","derived":[{"section":"refereeGrades","text":"How our cited sensor has scored: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the per-subject accuracy check. We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Disaster: Earthquake h"},{"section":"ourAttention","text":"How closely we are watching: we could not measure it."},{"section":"ourRead.firstParty","text":"What the issuing authorities say: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the first-party read. No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so this record carries no document from an issuing authority. That is unmeasured, not a clean bill."},{"section":"ourRead.singleSource","text":"What rests on one source: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the single-source tier. We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},{"section":"ourRead.contradicted","text":"What contradicts: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is no polarity-comparable pair. We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},{"section":"ourRead.heldAsProvenance","text":"Held as provenance: we could not measure it. No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"standing":[],"note":"6 sections on this record came back \"we could not look\". Each is named below with the pass that failed, generated from the section's own state rather than typed here."},"provenance":{"key":"provenance","heading":"Where this record comes from","state":"measured","asOf":"2026-09-26","generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:26:29.232977+00:00","recordVersion":"sb.tr-9c8e07ea","releaseId":null,"builtAt":null,"releaseState":"cannot-measure","releaseNote":"the release manifest is a deploy-time asset (/release.json), stamped on the served response, never bundled into the record at build time","slaRow":null,"slaNote":"No freshness clock is registered for this record's own inputs yet; the sections above each carry the date they speak for."},"record":{"schema":"sb.truth-record.v1","slug":"disaster-event-earthquake","kind":"event","subjectState":"active","tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"computed":"standard","served":"standard","passed":["no unresolved contradiction on the record","at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read","at least 3 independent publishers on a joined claim"],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"tierChangedAt":"2026-09-07","previousTier":"standard","subject":{"label":"Disaster: Earthquake","aliases":["disaster-event-earthquake","disaster: earthquake","earthquake"],"eventKey":"disaster-event-earthquake","entityKeys":["disaster-event-earthquake","disaster: earthquake","earthquake"],"mergedSlugs":[],"eventSlugs":["disaster-event-earthquake"]},"definition":{"whatThisIs":"Disaster: Earthquake is an event Signal Bureau maintains a record of (disaster). The record joins 986 document(s) from 29 outlet(s) in the corpus.","whyTracked":"Registered in the publication registry, which is deny-by-default: a subject is served only once it is registered.","coverageSince":"2026-05-24","coverageSinceBasis":"first counted document (event-graph)","coverageSinceState":"measured","coverageSinceReason":null,"coverageSinceAlternates":[{"date":"2026-07-16","basis":"registered in the publication registry"}],"notCovered":["No probability of ours: this record reports what sources and markets say, and grades them. It does not forecast.","No primary-source layer is registered for this subject, so no first-party document is read for it.","The calibration referee has graded nothing on this subject, so no accuracy record is shown."],"tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"computed":"standard","served":"standard","passed":["no unresolved contradiction on the record","at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read","at least 3 independent publishers on a joined claim"],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"state":"templated-from-structure","reason":""},"claims":[{"clusterKey":"bae69dc7a5dc","claim":"Qatar PM describes fallout of US-Israel war on Iran as ‘earthquake’","claimUrl":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/20/qatari-pm-warns-against-cycles-of-escalation-in-the-middle-east?traffic_source=rss","tier":{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","meaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":1,"countRule":"2 or 3 publishers"},"independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":1,"independenceBasis":"1 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates and 1 portal fallback(s) (news.google.com) were excluded; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"aljazeera.com","wire":false},{"origin":"news.google.com","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","receipts":[{"origin":"aljazeera.com","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/20/qatari-pm-warns-against-cycles-of-escalation-in-the-middle-east?traffic_source=rss","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"news.google.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxQUlY5OExNNU5sVzBjN1RxWXdZXzUtVGk0c05qel9GV1NNZ1JicE5ZblBGTHN5Y0o1d1BNcFduM2ExQ3ZrbmxINUJvQURXVnJ1NlFmbU1MM1VoVmlMSjBQUkJCSzk1Ql9vbWNzalpkcHhIcHhzNWw2QVM4UHhNQTc0MkZHam9XQ0FmZWk3Qkl5ZmY5MzVKMnFzb0J0eVQ0bENEejdVZ2M2TdIBrAFBVV95cUxOYWl2d3laUXlCdUNoRDZFS1pFaFVnTUwxeGdhajc0UjhxSTZyQlZxaWRjcEdPNWZaWlpESkVlT2x3Y2JCd0cwbGItc041UFJmem94R0NacHlfZDBBN0RvQ0s2aUctdk10MFp6WE00RmhmelQ0YW5TTGJkQUtKbHJuYk1keTN3UEVFdGw4Q0tOZjNkYmJILWlFYnRxMHg5cEtCY19QVHlTTDN3Umtw?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":true}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"aljazeera.com","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/20/qatari-pm-warns-against-cycles-of-escalation-in-the-middle-east?traffic_source=rss","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"news.google.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxQUlY5OExNNU5sVzBjN1RxWXdZXzUtVGk0c05qel9GV1NNZ1JicE5ZblBGTHN5Y0o1d1BNcFduM2ExQ3ZrbmxINUJvQURXVnJ1NlFmbU1MM1VoVmlMSjBQUkJCSzk1Ql9vbWNzalpkcHhIcHhzNWw2QVM4UHhNQTc0MkZHam9XQ0FmZWk3Qkl5ZmY5MzVKMnFzb0J0eVQ0bENEejdVZ2M2TdIBrAFBVV95cUxOYWl2d3laUXlCdUNoRDZFS1pFaFVnTUwxeGdhajc0UjhxSTZyQlZxaWRjcEdPNWZaWlpESkVlT2x3Y2JCd0cwbGItc041UFJmem94R0NacHlfZDBBN0RvQ0s2aUctdk10MFp6WE00RmhmelQ0YW5TTGJkQUtKbHJuYk1keTN3UEVFdGw4Q0tOZjNkYmJILWlFYnRxMHg5cEtCY19QVHlTTDN3Umtw?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":true}],"originsTotal":2,"subjectDocuments":[{"t":"Qatar PM describes fallout of US-Israel war on Iran as ‘earthquake’","src":"Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera","u":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/20/qatari-pm-warns-against-cycles-of-escalation-in-the-middle-east?traffic_source=rss","pd":"2026-09-21"}],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["document","entity"],"matchedKeys":["earthquake"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"334883de2bd6","claim":"M5.3 earthquake — 64 km W of Cafayate, Argentina","claimUrl":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiq2","tier":{"id":"weak","label":"Single source","meaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","rank":3,"countRule":"1 publisher"},"independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":1,"independenceBasis":"1 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","receipts":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","url":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiq2","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","url":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiq2","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":1,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["earthquake"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"3857b59cd83c","claim":"M4.9 earthquake — 26 km SE of Saimbeyli, Turkey","claimUrl":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiui","tier":{"id":"weak","label":"Single source","meaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","rank":3,"countRule":"1 publisher"},"independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":1,"independenceBasis":"1 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-21","receipts":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","url":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiui","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","url":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiui","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":1,"subjectDocuments":[{"t":"M4.9 earthquake — 26 km SE of Saimbeyli, Turkey","src":"USGS Earthquake Hazards Program","u":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiui","pd":"2026-09-21"}],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["document","entity"],"matchedKeys":["earthquake"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"431fa44aea7f","claim":"M5.7 earthquake — 180 km NW of Hihifo, Tonga","claimUrl":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tip2","tier":{"id":"weak","label":"Single source","meaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","rank":3,"countRule":"1 publisher"},"independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":1,"independenceBasis":"1 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","receipts":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","url":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tip2","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","url":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tip2","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":1,"subjectDocuments":[{"t":"M5.2 earthquake — 109 km W of Hihifo, Tonga","src":"USGS Earthquake Hazards Program","u":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tirq","pd":"2026-09-21"}],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["document","entity"],"matchedKeys":["earthquake"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"9a3a3bc91c37","claim":"M5.5 earthquake — 35 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia","claimUrl":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiju","tier":{"id":"weak","label":"Single source","meaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","rank":3,"countRule":"1 publisher"},"independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":1,"independenceBasis":"1 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","receipts":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","url":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiju","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","url":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiju","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":1,"subjectDocuments":[{"t":"M5.5 earthquake — 35 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia","src":"USGS Earthquake Hazards Program","u":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiur","pd":"2026-09-21"},{"t":"M5.0 earthquake — 34 km WNW of Luwuk, Indonesia","src":"USGS Earthquake Hazards Program","u":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiw4","pd":"2026-09-21"}],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["document","entity"],"matchedKeys":["earthquake"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"ccd62c41598b","claim":"M5.3 earthquake — 72 km NW of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea","claimUrl":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiqc","tier":{"id":"weak","label":"Single source","meaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","rank":3,"countRule":"1 publisher"},"independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":1,"independenceBasis":"1 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","receipts":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","url":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiqc","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","url":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiqc","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":1,"subjectDocuments":[{"t":"M5.4 earthquake — 68 km NNE of Kainantu, Papua New Guinea","src":"USGS Earthquake Hazards Program","u":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tirh","pd":"2026-09-21"},{"t":"M6.4 earthquake — 49 km NNE of Kainantu, Papua New Guinea","src":"USGS Earthquake Hazards Program","u":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiqc","pd":"2026-09-20"}],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["document","entity"],"matchedKeys":["earthquake"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"e6768cf6a37e","claim":"M5.3 earthquake — Reykjanes Ridge","claimUrl":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tild","tier":{"id":"weak","label":"Single source","meaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","rank":3,"countRule":"1 publisher"},"independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":1,"independenceBasis":"1 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","receipts":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","url":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tild","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","url":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tild","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":1,"subjectDocuments":[{"t":"M5.3 earthquake — Reykjanes Ridge","src":"USGS Earthquake Hazards Program","u":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000timy","pd":"2026-09-20"}],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["document","entity"],"matchedKeys":["earthquake"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"eca133d50dee","claim":"M5.0 earthquake — South Sandwich Islands region","claimUrl":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tipl","tier":{"id":"weak","label":"Single source","meaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","rank":3,"countRule":"1 publisher"},"independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":1,"independenceBasis":"1 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","receipts":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","url":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tipl","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","url":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tipl","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":1,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["earthquake"],"state":"single-source"}],"primaryDocuments":[],"marketSensor":{"state":"priced","reason":"","questions":[{"question":"Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-5pt5-or-above-earthquakes-worldwide-september-21-september-27","pricePct":65,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-26","seenBasis":"the entity's priced capture carries no per-row timestamp; this is the corpus-evidence shard's own build date","endDate":null,"venueStatus":"confirming","boundVia":"entity:earthquake"},{"question":"Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-6pt5-or-above-earthquakes-worldwide-september-21-september-27","pricePct":0.45,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-26","seenBasis":"the entity's priced capture carries no per-row timestamp; this is the corpus-evidence shard's own build date","endDate":null,"venueStatus":"confirming","boundVia":"entity:earthquake"},{"question":"Will the biggest earthquake on September 25, 2026 be under 5.3?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/biggest-earthquake-2026-09-25-under-5-3","pricePct":24.5,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-26","endDate":"2026-09-26","venueStatus":"unknown","boundVia":"event:disaster-event-earthquake"},{"question":"Will the biggest earthquake on September 25, 2026 be 6.1 or more?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/biggest-earthquake-2026-09-25-6-1-plus","pricePct":75,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-26","endDate":"2026-09-26","venueStatus":"unknown","boundVia":"event:disaster-event-earthquake"},{"question":"Will the biggest earthquake on September 25, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/biggest-earthquake-2026-09-25-5-3-to-5-4","pricePct":24,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-26","endDate":"2026-09-26","venueStatus":"unknown","boundVia":"event:disaster-event-earthquake"},{"question":"9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/9pt0-or-above-earthquake-before-2027","pricePct":3.1,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-19","endDate":"2027-02-01","venueStatus":"live","boundVia":"event:disaster-event-earthquake"},{"question":"Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/magnitude-6pt5-earthquake-in-la-before-2027","pricePct":3.2,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-17","endDate":"2027-01-01","venueStatus":"live","boundVia":"event:disaster-event-earthquake"},{"question":"Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-exactly-1-earthquake-of-magnitude-6pt5-or-higher-worldwide-from-may-18-24","pricePct":97.8,"priceSeenAt":"2026-05-24","endDate":"2026-05-24","venueStatus":"unknown","boundVia":"event:disaster-event-earthquake"}],"venue":"polymarket","priceAsOf":"2026-09-26","dropped":0,"note":"prices are a sensor we cite and grade, never a probability of ours (docs/decisions/20260817 Not a Forecasting Shop)"},"refereeGrades":[],"theRecord":{"state":"measured","reason":"","documents":986,"outlets":29,"activeDays":7,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","lastSeen":"2026-09-25","assertionMix":{"disaster":971,"regulatory-approval":3,"utterance":2,"launch-release":1,"military-action":1,"election":1},"countsBasis":"event-graph","receiptsOnRecord":18,"withheldFutureDated":0,"droppedInputs":0,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 7 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"ourAttention":{"state":"cannot-measure","level":null,"direction":"unknown","reason":"no attention series carries this subject — the entity-trends shard does not index it, so our own attention is UNKNOWN, not zero"},"ourRead":{"state":"measured","reason":"","corroboratedNow":[],"corroboratedCount":0,"singleSource":[{"claim":"Qatar PM describes fallout of US-Israel war on Iran as ‘earthquake’","clusterKey":"bae69dc7a5dc","tier":"Some cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":1,"earliestDate":"2026-09-20"},{"claim":"M5.3 earthquake — 64 km W of Cafayate, Argentina","clusterKey":"334883de2bd6","tier":"Single source","independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":1,"earliestDate":"2026-09-20"},{"claim":"M4.9 earthquake — 26 km SE of Saimbeyli, Turkey","clusterKey":"3857b59cd83c","tier":"Single source","independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":1,"earliestDate":"2026-09-21"},{"claim":"M5.7 earthquake — 180 km NW of Hihifo, Tonga","clusterKey":"431fa44aea7f","tier":"Single source","independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":1,"earliestDate":"2026-09-20"},{"claim":"M5.5 earthquake — 35 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia","clusterKey":"9a3a3bc91c37","tier":"Single source","independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":1,"earliestDate":"2026-09-20"},{"claim":"M5.3 earthquake — 72 km NW of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea","clusterKey":"ccd62c41598b","tier":"Single source","independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":1,"earliestDate":"2026-09-20"},{"claim":"M5.3 earthquake — Reykjanes Ridge","clusterKey":"e6768cf6a37e","tier":"Single source","independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":1,"earliestDate":"2026-09-20"},{"claim":"M5.0 earthquake — South Sandwich Islands region","clusterKey":"eca133d50dee","tier":"Single source","independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":1,"earliestDate":"2026-09-20"}],"singleSourceCount":8,"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","items":[],"reason":"no polarity-comparable pair — no two claims on this record share a typed actor and action class over the same proposition, so no contradiction can be judged"},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","reason":"","added":[],"removed":[],"tierMoves":[],"against":"2026-09-26"},"divergence":{"state":"measured","reason":"","sensor":{"question":"Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?","pricePct":65,"venue":"polymarket","seenAt":"2026-09-26"},"corroboratedClaims":0,"text":"The crowd prices “Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?” at 65.0% on polymarket (seen 2026-09-26), beside 0 independently corroborated claim(s) on this record. The price is a sensor we cite and grade, not a probability of ours."},"heldAsProvenance":[],"inputsDropped":[],"synthesis":null,"synthesisState":"withheld-by-design — synthesis runs only at full tier behind the coherence and no-advice gates, which this builder does not run","basis":[{"artifact":"cross_domain/analysis/whats_true_latest.json","used":"claims, tiers, independent origins","state":"read"},{"artifact":"web/signal-bureau/lib/event_market_receipts.json","used":"market sensor (event side)","state":"priced"},{"artifact":"web/signal-bureau/lib/corpus_evidence.json","used":"receipts and priced captures (entity side)","state":"read"}]},"sectionStates":{"definition":{"state":"templated-from-structure","reason":""},"claims":{"state":"measured","reason":""},"primaryDocuments":{"state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no row in registry/truth_sources.yaml names this subject, so it has no registered primary-source layer"},"marketSensor":{"state":"priced","reason":""},"refereeGrades":{"state":"published-but-ungraded","reason":""},"theRecord":{"state":"measured","reason":""},"ourAttention":{"state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no attention series carries this subject — the entity-trends shard does not index it, so our own attention is UNKNOWN, not zero"},"ourRead":{"state":"measured","reason":""}},"currency":{"state":"current","asOf":"2026-09-25","basis":{"asOf":"2026-09-26","newestObservationAt":"2026-09-25","newestObservationBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","ageDays":1,"expectedCadenceDays":18,"cadenceBasis":"this record's own observed cadence — 7 active day(s) over a 125-day window","graceMultiple":1,"wallMultiple":3,"blindSources":[],"retiredAt":null,"recordState":"measured"},"sentence":"This record is current: the newest source item is from 2026-09-25, inside its expected cadence of about one item every 18 days."},"scope":{"state":"measured","reason":null,"countsBasis":"event-graph","countsWindow":{"from":"2026-05-24","to":"2026-09-25","activeDays":7,"documents":986,"outlets":29},"claimsWindow":{"from":"2026-09-20","to":"2026-09-26"},"coverageStart":{"state":"measured","date":"2026-05-24","basis":"first counted document (event-graph)","alternates":[{"date":"2026-07-16","basis":"registered in the publication registry"}],"reason":null},"retiredAt":null,"receipts":{"withReceipt":8,"total":8,"cannotMeasure":0},"claimTiers":[{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","rank":1,"count":1},{"id":"weak","label":"Single source","rank":3,"count":7}],"claimsShown":8,"claimsDropped":0,"claimsAtPublishedTiers":1,"publishedTiers":["strong","moderate"],"note":"This record's counts are the event-graph for this subject — 986 document(s) over 7 active day(s) from 2026-05-24 to 2026-09-25; its 8 claim(s) come from the corroboration run covering 2026-09-20 to 2026-09-26 and include every agreement tier (1 of them at the published tiers strong, moderate), so a cumulative archive total published on another surface counts a different set over a different window and is not expected to match this one. Coverage of this subject begins 2026-05-24 — first counted document (event-graph); other structures date it 2026-07-16 (registered in the publication registry)."},"limits":[{"section":"primaryDocuments","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no row in registry/truth_sources.yaml names this subject, so it has no registered primary-source layer"},{"section":"ourAttention","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no attention series carries this subject — the entity-trends shard does not index it, so our own attention is UNKNOWN, not zero"}],"verify":{"rest":"GET /api/truth/disaster-event-earthquake","mcp":"get_truth_record {\"slug\": \"disaster-event-earthquake\"}"},"claimsMeta":{"state":"measured","reason":"","dropped":0},"primaryDocumentsMeta":{"state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no row in registry/truth_sources.yaml names this subject, so it has no registered primary-source layer"},"refereeGradesMeta":{"state":"published-but-ungraded","reason":"","counts":{"published":105,"graded":0},"note":"probabilities were published on this subject and none has been graded against a resolved outcome yet"},"changeLog":[{"at":"2026-09-26","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-26","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-26","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-26","what":"claims changed: +3 −4, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-25","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-25","what":"claims changed: +5 −3, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-24","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-24","what":"claims changed: +0 −1, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-24","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-24","what":"claims changed: +5 −3, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-23","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-23","what":"claims changed: +0 −1, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-23","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-23","what":"claims changed: +2 −2, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-22","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-22","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-22","what":"claims changed: +6 −3, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-21","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-21","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-20","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-20","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-20","what":"claims changed: +2 −2, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-19","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-19","what":"claims changed: +2 −2, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-18","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-18","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-18","what":"claims changed: +3 −3, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-17","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-17","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-17","what":"claims changed: +0 −2, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-16","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-16","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-16","what":"claims changed: +2 −2, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-15","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-15","what":"claims changed: +4 −3, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-14","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-14","what":"claims changed: +3 −3, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-13","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-13","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-13","what":"claims changed: +4 −5, 0 tier move(s)"}],"provenance":{"generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:27:21.270942+00:00","asOf":"2026-09-26","windowStart":"2026-09-20","windowEnd":"2026-09-26","inputs":[{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/publication_state.json","generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:26:29.232977+00:00","sha":"6dbd177aef85e618"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/signal_bureau_snapshot.json","generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:26:29.232977+00:00","sha":"ea2a70b2c8e6a73d"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/corpus_evidence.json","generatedAt":"2026-09-26T20:45:06.917695+00:00","sha":"564b48bec13092ca"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/event_graph.json","generatedAt":null,"sha":"5721b3b6f3de4da0"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/event_market_receipts.json","generatedAt":"2026-09-26","sha":"eb6cc8a0b05de3e4"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/entity_trends.json","generatedAt":null,"sha":"7c111da898e1d641"},{"path":"cross_domain/analysis/whats_true_latest.json","generatedAt":"2026-09-26T08:05:06.476473Z","sha":null},{"path":"registry/truth_sources.yaml","generatedAt":null,"sha":"3439a8cab13733c0"},{"path":"cross_domain/predictions","generatedAt":null,"sha":"806f562ba9c33f63"}],"recordVersion":"f9793c62c7156b90"}},"scope":{"oneRecord":"lib/truth_records/disaster-event-earthquake.json (sb.truth-record.v1) is the ONE producer of this subject's document count, outlet count, coverage window and claim rows. `record` is that file, verbatim. `exhibit` is the sb.truth.v1 view over it — the same numbers under the same names, plus the layers only the exhibit carries (first-party documents, press, our attention measurement, market belief).","sharedValues":["documents","outlets","activeDays","firstSeen","lastSeen","coverage.start","coverage.end","claims — row count, and each row's id, tier and claimUrl"],"differentByName":[{"key":"exhibit.layers.record.archive","measures":["documents","outlets","activeDays","since"],"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation","why":"a wider window than the maintained record's, so it is a DIFFERENT measure and never shares a key with it. Compare it to the record's counts and you are comparing two questions."}],"parityGate":"web/signal-bureau/scripts/check_truth_record_door.mjs §7 — a key carried by both under one name with two values fails the build."},"restPath":"/api/truth/disaster-event-earthquake","mcpTool":"get_truth_record","recordState":"served","maintainedRecord":{"schema":"sb.truth-record.v1","slug":"disaster-event-earthquake","kind":"event","subjectState":"active","tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"computed":"standard","served":"standard","passed":["no unresolved contradiction on the record","at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read","at least 3 independent publishers on a joined claim"],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"tierChangedAt":"2026-09-07","previousTier":"standard","subject":{"label":"Disaster: Earthquake","aliases":["disaster-event-earthquake","disaster: earthquake","earthquake"],"eventKey":"disaster-event-earthquake","entityKeys":["disaster-event-earthquake","disaster: earthquake","earthquake"],"mergedSlugs":[],"eventSlugs":["disaster-event-earthquake"]},"definition":{"whatThisIs":"Disaster: Earthquake is an event Signal Bureau maintains a record of (disaster). The record joins 986 document(s) from 29 outlet(s) in the corpus.","whyTracked":"Registered in the publication registry, which is deny-by-default: a subject is served only once it is registered.","coverageSince":"2026-05-24","coverageSinceBasis":"first counted document (event-graph)","coverageSinceState":"measured","coverageSinceReason":null,"coverageSinceAlternates":[{"date":"2026-07-16","basis":"registered in the publication registry"}],"notCovered":["No probability of ours: this record reports what sources and markets say, and grades them. It does not forecast.","No primary-source layer is registered for this subject, so no first-party document is read for it.","The calibration referee has graded nothing on this subject, so no accuracy record is shown."],"tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"computed":"standard","served":"standard","passed":["no unresolved contradiction on the record","at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read","at least 3 independent publishers on a joined claim"],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"state":"templated-from-structure","reason":""},"claims":[{"clusterKey":"bae69dc7a5dc","claim":"Qatar PM describes fallout of US-Israel war on Iran as ‘earthquake’","claimUrl":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/20/qatari-pm-warns-against-cycles-of-escalation-in-the-middle-east?traffic_source=rss","tier":{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","meaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","rank":1,"countRule":"2 or 3 publishers"},"independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":1,"independenceBasis":"1 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates and 1 portal fallback(s) (news.google.com) were excluded; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"aljazeera.com","wire":false},{"origin":"news.google.com","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","receipts":[{"origin":"aljazeera.com","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/20/qatari-pm-warns-against-cycles-of-escalation-in-the-middle-east?traffic_source=rss","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"news.google.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxQUlY5OExNNU5sVzBjN1RxWXdZXzUtVGk0c05qel9GV1NNZ1JicE5ZblBGTHN5Y0o1d1BNcFduM2ExQ3ZrbmxINUJvQURXVnJ1NlFmbU1MM1VoVmlMSjBQUkJCSzk1Ql9vbWNzalpkcHhIcHhzNWw2QVM4UHhNQTc0MkZHam9XQ0FmZWk3Qkl5ZmY5MzVKMnFzb0J0eVQ0bENEejdVZ2M2TdIBrAFBVV95cUxOYWl2d3laUXlCdUNoRDZFS1pFaFVnTUwxeGdhajc0UjhxSTZyQlZxaWRjcEdPNWZaWlpESkVlT2x3Y2JCd0cwbGItc041UFJmem94R0NacHlfZDBBN0RvQ0s2aUctdk10MFp6WE00RmhmelQ0YW5TTGJkQUtKbHJuYk1keTN3UEVFdGw4Q0tOZjNkYmJILWlFYnRxMHg5cEtCY19QVHlTTDN3Umtw?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":true}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"aljazeera.com","url":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/20/qatari-pm-warns-against-cycles-of-escalation-in-the-middle-east?traffic_source=rss","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":false},{"origin":"news.google.com","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipwFBVV95cUxQUlY5OExNNU5sVzBjN1RxWXdZXzUtVGk0c05qel9GV1NNZ1JicE5ZblBGTHN5Y0o1d1BNcFduM2ExQ3ZrbmxINUJvQURXVnJ1NlFmbU1MM1VoVmlMSjBQUkJCSzk1Ql9vbWNzalpkcHhIcHhzNWw2QVM4UHhNQTc0MkZHam9XQ0FmZWk3Qkl5ZmY5MzVKMnFzb0J0eVQ0bENEejdVZ2M2TdIBrAFBVV95cUxOYWl2d3laUXlCdUNoRDZFS1pFaFVnTUwxeGdhajc0UjhxSTZyQlZxaWRjcEdPNWZaWlpESkVlT2x3Y2JCd0cwbGItc041UFJmem94R0NacHlfZDBBN0RvQ0s2aUctdk10MFp6WE00RmhmelQ0YW5TTGJkQUtKbHJuYk1keTN3UEVFdGw4Q0tOZjNkYmJILWlFYnRxMHg5cEtCY19QVHlTTDN3Umtw?oc=5","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":true}],"originsTotal":2,"subjectDocuments":[{"t":"Qatar PM describes fallout of US-Israel war on Iran as ‘earthquake’","src":"Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera","u":"https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/20/qatari-pm-warns-against-cycles-of-escalation-in-the-middle-east?traffic_source=rss","pd":"2026-09-21"}],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["document","entity"],"matchedKeys":["earthquake"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"334883de2bd6","claim":"M5.3 earthquake — 64 km W of Cafayate, Argentina","claimUrl":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiq2","tier":{"id":"weak","label":"Single source","meaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","rank":3,"countRule":"1 publisher"},"independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":1,"independenceBasis":"1 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","receipts":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","url":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiq2","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","url":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiq2","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":1,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["earthquake"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"3857b59cd83c","claim":"M4.9 earthquake — 26 km SE of Saimbeyli, Turkey","claimUrl":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiui","tier":{"id":"weak","label":"Single source","meaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","rank":3,"countRule":"1 publisher"},"independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":1,"independenceBasis":"1 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-21","receipts":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","url":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiui","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","url":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiui","publishedAt":"2026-09-21","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":1,"subjectDocuments":[{"t":"M4.9 earthquake — 26 km SE of Saimbeyli, Turkey","src":"USGS Earthquake Hazards Program","u":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiui","pd":"2026-09-21"}],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["document","entity"],"matchedKeys":["earthquake"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"431fa44aea7f","claim":"M5.7 earthquake — 180 km NW of Hihifo, Tonga","claimUrl":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tip2","tier":{"id":"weak","label":"Single source","meaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","rank":3,"countRule":"1 publisher"},"independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":1,"independenceBasis":"1 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","receipts":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","url":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tip2","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","url":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tip2","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":1,"subjectDocuments":[{"t":"M5.2 earthquake — 109 km W of Hihifo, Tonga","src":"USGS Earthquake Hazards Program","u":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tirq","pd":"2026-09-21"}],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["document","entity"],"matchedKeys":["earthquake"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"9a3a3bc91c37","claim":"M5.5 earthquake — 35 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia","claimUrl":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiju","tier":{"id":"weak","label":"Single source","meaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","rank":3,"countRule":"1 publisher"},"independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":1,"independenceBasis":"1 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","receipts":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","url":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiju","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","url":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiju","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":1,"subjectDocuments":[{"t":"M5.5 earthquake — 35 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia","src":"USGS Earthquake Hazards Program","u":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiur","pd":"2026-09-21"},{"t":"M5.0 earthquake — 34 km WNW of Luwuk, Indonesia","src":"USGS Earthquake Hazards Program","u":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiw4","pd":"2026-09-21"}],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["document","entity"],"matchedKeys":["earthquake"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"ccd62c41598b","claim":"M5.3 earthquake — 72 km NW of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea","claimUrl":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiqc","tier":{"id":"weak","label":"Single source","meaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","rank":3,"countRule":"1 publisher"},"independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":1,"independenceBasis":"1 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","receipts":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","url":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiqc","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","url":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiqc","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":1,"subjectDocuments":[{"t":"M5.4 earthquake — 68 km NNE of Kainantu, Papua New Guinea","src":"USGS Earthquake Hazards Program","u":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tirh","pd":"2026-09-21"},{"t":"M6.4 earthquake — 49 km NNE of Kainantu, Papua New Guinea","src":"USGS Earthquake Hazards Program","u":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tiqc","pd":"2026-09-20"}],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["document","entity"],"matchedKeys":["earthquake"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"e6768cf6a37e","claim":"M5.3 earthquake — Reykjanes Ridge","claimUrl":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tild","tier":{"id":"weak","label":"Single source","meaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","rank":3,"countRule":"1 publisher"},"independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":1,"independenceBasis":"1 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","receipts":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","url":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tild","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","url":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tild","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":1,"subjectDocuments":[{"t":"M5.3 earthquake — Reykjanes Ridge","src":"USGS Earthquake Hazards Program","u":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000timy","pd":"2026-09-20"}],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["document","entity"],"matchedKeys":["earthquake"],"state":"single-source"},{"clusterKey":"eca133d50dee","claim":"M5.0 earthquake — South Sandwich Islands region","claimUrl":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tipl","tier":{"id":"weak","label":"Single source","meaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","rank":3,"countRule":"1 publisher"},"independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":1,"independenceBasis":"1 distinct publisher(s) after the engine collapsed wires, republishers and near-duplicates; corroborated needs at least 3","independenceState":"measured","origins":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","wire":false}],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","receipts":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","url":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tipl","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originReceipts":[{"origin":"earthquake.usgs.gov","url":"https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/us7000tipl","publishedAt":"2026-09-20","wire":false,"redirect":false}],"originsTotal":1,"subjectDocuments":[],"claimUrlBasis":"earliest-origin-receipt","receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"matchedOn":["entity"],"matchedKeys":["earthquake"],"state":"single-source"}],"primaryDocuments":[],"marketSensor":{"state":"priced","reason":"","questions":[{"question":"Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-5pt5-or-above-earthquakes-worldwide-september-21-september-27","pricePct":65,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-26","seenBasis":"the entity's priced capture carries no per-row timestamp; this is the corpus-evidence shard's own build date","endDate":null,"venueStatus":"confirming","boundVia":"entity:earthquake"},{"question":"Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/how-many-6pt5-or-above-earthquakes-worldwide-september-21-september-27","pricePct":0.45,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-26","seenBasis":"the entity's priced capture carries no per-row timestamp; this is the corpus-evidence shard's own build date","endDate":null,"venueStatus":"confirming","boundVia":"entity:earthquake"},{"question":"Will the biggest earthquake on September 25, 2026 be under 5.3?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/biggest-earthquake-2026-09-25-under-5-3","pricePct":24.5,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-26","endDate":"2026-09-26","venueStatus":"unknown","boundVia":"event:disaster-event-earthquake"},{"question":"Will the biggest earthquake on September 25, 2026 be 6.1 or more?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/biggest-earthquake-2026-09-25-6-1-plus","pricePct":75,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-26","endDate":"2026-09-26","venueStatus":"unknown","boundVia":"event:disaster-event-earthquake"},{"question":"Will the biggest earthquake on September 25, 2026 be 5.3 to 5.4?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/biggest-earthquake-2026-09-25-5-3-to-5-4","pricePct":24,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-26","endDate":"2026-09-26","venueStatus":"unknown","boundVia":"event:disaster-event-earthquake"},{"question":"9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/9pt0-or-above-earthquake-before-2027","pricePct":3.1,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-19","endDate":"2027-02-01","venueStatus":"live","boundVia":"event:disaster-event-earthquake"},{"question":"Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/magnitude-6pt5-earthquake-in-la-before-2027","pricePct":3.2,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-17","endDate":"2027-01-01","venueStatus":"live","boundVia":"event:disaster-event-earthquake"},{"question":"Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-exactly-1-earthquake-of-magnitude-6pt5-or-higher-worldwide-from-may-18-24","pricePct":97.8,"priceSeenAt":"2026-05-24","endDate":"2026-05-24","venueStatus":"unknown","boundVia":"event:disaster-event-earthquake"}],"venue":"polymarket","priceAsOf":"2026-09-26","dropped":0,"note":"prices are a sensor we cite and grade, never a probability of ours (docs/decisions/20260817 Not a Forecasting Shop)"},"refereeGrades":[],"theRecord":{"state":"measured","reason":"","documents":986,"outlets":29,"activeDays":7,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","lastSeen":"2026-09-25","assertionMix":{"disaster":971,"regulatory-approval":3,"utterance":2,"launch-release":1,"military-action":1,"election":1},"countsBasis":"event-graph","receiptsOnRecord":18,"withheldFutureDated":0,"droppedInputs":0,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 7 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"ourAttention":{"state":"cannot-measure","level":null,"direction":"unknown","reason":"no attention series carries this subject — the entity-trends shard does not index it, so our own attention is UNKNOWN, not zero"},"ourRead":{"state":"measured","reason":"","corroboratedNow":[],"corroboratedCount":0,"singleSource":[{"claim":"Qatar PM describes fallout of US-Israel war on Iran as ‘earthquake’","clusterKey":"bae69dc7a5dc","tier":"Some cross-source agreement","independentOrigins":2,"independentCount":1,"earliestDate":"2026-09-20"},{"claim":"M5.3 earthquake — 64 km W of Cafayate, Argentina","clusterKey":"334883de2bd6","tier":"Single source","independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":1,"earliestDate":"2026-09-20"},{"claim":"M4.9 earthquake — 26 km SE of Saimbeyli, Turkey","clusterKey":"3857b59cd83c","tier":"Single source","independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":1,"earliestDate":"2026-09-21"},{"claim":"M5.7 earthquake — 180 km NW of Hihifo, Tonga","clusterKey":"431fa44aea7f","tier":"Single source","independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":1,"earliestDate":"2026-09-20"},{"claim":"M5.5 earthquake — 35 km NNE of Ruteng, Indonesia","clusterKey":"9a3a3bc91c37","tier":"Single source","independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":1,"earliestDate":"2026-09-20"},{"claim":"M5.3 earthquake — 72 km NW of Finschhafen, Papua New Guinea","clusterKey":"ccd62c41598b","tier":"Single source","independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":1,"earliestDate":"2026-09-20"},{"claim":"M5.3 earthquake — Reykjanes Ridge","clusterKey":"e6768cf6a37e","tier":"Single source","independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":1,"earliestDate":"2026-09-20"},{"claim":"M5.0 earthquake — South Sandwich Islands region","clusterKey":"eca133d50dee","tier":"Single source","independentOrigins":1,"independentCount":1,"earliestDate":"2026-09-20"}],"singleSourceCount":8,"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","items":[],"reason":"no polarity-comparable pair — no two claims on this record share a typed actor and action class over the same proposition, so no contradiction can be judged"},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","reason":"","added":[],"removed":[],"tierMoves":[],"against":"2026-09-26"},"divergence":{"state":"measured","reason":"","sensor":{"question":"Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?","pricePct":65,"venue":"polymarket","seenAt":"2026-09-26"},"corroboratedClaims":0,"text":"The crowd prices “Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?” at 65.0% on polymarket (seen 2026-09-26), beside 0 independently corroborated claim(s) on this record. The price is a sensor we cite and grade, not a probability of ours."},"heldAsProvenance":[],"inputsDropped":[],"synthesis":null,"synthesisState":"withheld-by-design — synthesis runs only at full tier behind the coherence and no-advice gates, which this builder does not run","basis":[{"artifact":"cross_domain/analysis/whats_true_latest.json","used":"claims, tiers, independent origins","state":"read"},{"artifact":"web/signal-bureau/lib/event_market_receipts.json","used":"market sensor (event side)","state":"priced"},{"artifact":"web/signal-bureau/lib/corpus_evidence.json","used":"receipts and priced captures (entity side)","state":"read"}]},"sectionStates":{"definition":{"state":"templated-from-structure","reason":""},"claims":{"state":"measured","reason":""},"primaryDocuments":{"state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no row in registry/truth_sources.yaml names this subject, so it has no registered primary-source layer"},"marketSensor":{"state":"priced","reason":""},"refereeGrades":{"state":"published-but-ungraded","reason":""},"theRecord":{"state":"measured","reason":""},"ourAttention":{"state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no attention series carries this subject — the entity-trends shard does not index it, so our own attention is UNKNOWN, not zero"},"ourRead":{"state":"measured","reason":""}},"currency":{"state":"current","asOf":"2026-09-25","basis":{"asOf":"2026-09-26","newestObservationAt":"2026-09-25","newestObservationBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","ageDays":1,"expectedCadenceDays":18,"cadenceBasis":"this record's own observed cadence — 7 active day(s) over a 125-day window","graceMultiple":1,"wallMultiple":3,"blindSources":[],"retiredAt":null,"recordState":"measured"},"sentence":"This record is current: the newest source item is from 2026-09-25, inside its expected cadence of about one item every 18 days."},"scope":{"state":"measured","reason":null,"countsBasis":"event-graph","countsWindow":{"from":"2026-05-24","to":"2026-09-25","activeDays":7,"documents":986,"outlets":29},"claimsWindow":{"from":"2026-09-20","to":"2026-09-26"},"coverageStart":{"state":"measured","date":"2026-05-24","basis":"first counted document (event-graph)","alternates":[{"date":"2026-07-16","basis":"registered in the publication registry"}],"reason":null},"retiredAt":null,"receipts":{"withReceipt":8,"total":8,"cannotMeasure":0},"claimTiers":[{"id":"moderate","label":"Some cross-source agreement","rank":1,"count":1},{"id":"weak","label":"Single source","rank":3,"count":7}],"claimsShown":8,"claimsDropped":0,"claimsAtPublishedTiers":1,"publishedTiers":["strong","moderate"],"note":"This record's counts are the event-graph for this subject — 986 document(s) over 7 active day(s) from 2026-05-24 to 2026-09-25; its 8 claim(s) come from the corroboration run covering 2026-09-20 to 2026-09-26 and include every agreement tier (1 of them at the published tiers strong, moderate), so a cumulative archive total published on another surface counts a different set over a different window and is not expected to match this one. Coverage of this subject begins 2026-05-24 — first counted document (event-graph); other structures date it 2026-07-16 (registered in the publication registry)."},"limits":[{"section":"primaryDocuments","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no row in registry/truth_sources.yaml names this subject, so it has no registered primary-source layer"},{"section":"ourAttention","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no attention series carries this subject — the entity-trends shard does not index it, so our own attention is UNKNOWN, not zero"}],"verify":{"rest":"GET /api/truth/disaster-event-earthquake","mcp":"get_truth_record {\"slug\": \"disaster-event-earthquake\"}"},"claimsMeta":{"state":"measured","reason":"","dropped":0},"primaryDocumentsMeta":{"state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no row in registry/truth_sources.yaml names this subject, so it has no registered primary-source layer"},"refereeGradesMeta":{"state":"published-but-ungraded","reason":"","counts":{"published":105,"graded":0},"note":"probabilities were published on this subject and none has been graded against a resolved outcome yet"},"changeLog":[{"at":"2026-09-26","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-26","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-26","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-26","what":"claims changed: +3 −4, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-25","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-25","what":"claims changed: +5 −3, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-24","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-24","what":"claims changed: +0 −1, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-24","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-24","what":"claims changed: +5 −3, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-23","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-23","what":"claims changed: +0 −1, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-23","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-23","what":"claims changed: +2 −2, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-22","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-22","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-22","what":"claims changed: +6 −3, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-21","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-21","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-20","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-20","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-20","what":"claims changed: +2 −2, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-19","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-19","what":"claims changed: +2 −2, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-18","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-18","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-18","what":"claims changed: +3 −3, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-17","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-17","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-17","what":"claims changed: +0 −2, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-16","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-16","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-16","what":"claims changed: +2 −2, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-15","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-15","what":"claims changed: +4 −3, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-14","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-14","what":"claims changed: +3 −3, 0 tier move(s)"},{"at":"2026-09-13","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-13","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-09-13","what":"claims changed: +4 −5, 0 tier move(s)"}],"provenance":{"generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:27:21.270942+00:00","asOf":"2026-09-26","windowStart":"2026-09-20","windowEnd":"2026-09-26","inputs":[{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/publication_state.json","generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:26:29.232977+00:00","sha":"6dbd177aef85e618"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/signal_bureau_snapshot.json","generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:26:29.232977+00:00","sha":"ea2a70b2c8e6a73d"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/corpus_evidence.json","generatedAt":"2026-09-26T20:45:06.917695+00:00","sha":"564b48bec13092ca"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/event_graph.json","generatedAt":null,"sha":"5721b3b6f3de4da0"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/event_market_receipts.json","generatedAt":"2026-09-26","sha":"eb6cc8a0b05de3e4"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/entity_trends.json","generatedAt":null,"sha":"7c111da898e1d641"},{"path":"cross_domain/analysis/whats_true_latest.json","generatedAt":"2026-09-26T08:05:06.476473Z","sha":null},{"path":"registry/truth_sources.yaml","generatedAt":null,"sha":"3439a8cab13733c0"},{"path":"cross_domain/predictions","generatedAt":null,"sha":"806f562ba9c33f63"}],"recordVersion":"f9793c62c7156b90"}}}