{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"disaster-event-atlantic-hurricane","title":"The Disaster: Atlantic & Hurricane record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"hurricane","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"hurricane\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Disaster: Atlantic & Hurricane\"). It was preferred over atlantic because it carries this record's own action class (disaster) — the event this record is about, rather than a place or party named alongside it. The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity.","candidatesConsidered":["atlantic","hurricane"],"alsoDefensible":["atlantic"],"rejected":[],"actionClass":"disaster"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-09-26","currency":{"state":"not-current","asOf":"2026-09-05","basis":{"asOf":"2026-09-26","newestObservationAt":"2026-09-05","newestObservationBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","ageDays":21,"expectedCadenceDays":1,"cadenceBasis":"the fastest cadence declared by a readable registered primary source (1 day)","graceMultiple":1,"wallMultiple":3,"blindSources":[],"retiredAt":null,"recordState":"measured"},"sentence":"This record is no longer current: nothing new has been observed since 2026-09-05, 21 days ago, against its daily cadence — more than 3 times its usual gap."},"generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:26:29.232977+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/disaster-event-atlantic-hurricane and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://sigb.ai/api/truth/disaster-event-atlantic-hurricane so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for EVENT relevance, not just subject: a row is served only if it names \"hurricane\" AND carries a term from this record's own subject line, or two terms from its market-question set. The subject's name alone is the key its corpus was sampled on, so it proves nothing about this event — each served row names the terms it matched in eventTerms.","status":"none-event-relevant","note":"Measured zero after event-relevance filtering: we sampled 8 attributable rows for \"hurricane\" and not one could be shown to be about \"Disaster: Atlantic & Hurricane\" — each carried the subject's name and nothing else this record is about. They are withheld rather than served: a subject's general coverage is not this event's reporting, and serving it under this record's label would be worse than serving nothing. That is a count, not a gap.","sampledForSubject":8,"served":0,"withheldNotEventRelevant":8,"relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["disaster","atlantic"],"questionSet":["first","form","between","september","name","cristobal","dolly","edouard"]},"items":[]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":867,"outlets":244,"activeDays":7,"firstSeen":"2026-07-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-09-05","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-07-24","end":"2026-09-05","activeDays":7,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 7 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":842,"outlets":97,"activeDays":35,"since":"2026-01-26","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-09-22","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate"],"asserts":{"disaster":477,"utterance":12,"launch-release":8,"meeting-visit":6,"military-action":5,"sports-outcome":5},"assertionCoverage":0.625,"movesWith":[{"name":"atlantic","together":292,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"national hurricane center","together":152,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate"]},{"name":"atlantic hurricane season","together":124,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"miami","together":115,"sharedDomains":["weather_climate"]},{"name":"hawaii","together":93,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"hurricane lowell","together":59,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate"]},{"name":"noaa","together":77,"sharedDomains":["weather_climate"]},{"name":"iceland","together":113}],"movesWithLabels":["atlantic","national hurricane center","atlantic hurricane season","miami","hawaii","hurricane lowell","noaa","iceland"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"insufficient_history","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":748,"periods":[{"period":"2026-09","mentions":84},{"period":"2026","mentions":664}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"observed","rowsNote":null,"current":[{"question":"Will no Atlantic hurricane form in September 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-first-hurricane-form-in-the-atlantic-in-2026-20260904095717296","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":96,"change24hPct":null,"pricedAt":"2026-09-26","capturedAt":"2026-09-16","deadline":null,"deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact"}],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Disaster: Atlantic & Hurricane","slug":"disaster-event-atlantic-hurricane","questionCount":17,"questions":["Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between September 1 and September 10, 2026?","Will no Atlantic hurricane form in September 2026?","Will there be 1-3 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?","Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Cristobal?","Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Dolly?","Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Edouard?"],"mentions":748,"firstSeen":"2026-07-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-09-05","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-09-26","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"hurricane\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Disaster: Atlantic & Hurricane\"). It was preferred over atlantic because it carries this record's own action class (disaster) — the event this record is about, rather than a place or party named alongside it. The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[]},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"rising","at":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-06T15:09:28.353077+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-06T15:09:28.353077+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-09-26T14:52:38.279544+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-09-26T14:52:38.279544+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00"}]}},"sectionOrder":["definition","primaryDocuments","claims","theRecord","ourAttention","marketSensor","refereeGrades","ourRead","changeLog","limits","verify","provenance"],"definition":{"key":"definition","heading":"What this record is","state":"written","whatThisIs":"A rotating tropical storm with sustained winds above 74 mph; tracked for landfall, damage, and insurance losses.","whyTracked":"We hold 867 documents from 244 outlets over 7 active days. It runs through 8 coverage domains we watch, including Weather Climate, World Wires, Water. 17 market questions price outcomes under the event bound to it.","coverageSince":{"date":"2026-07-24","status":"observed","text":"Our first document on this subject is dated Jul 24, 2026; the count above is everything since."},"notCovered":["Our attention, not the world's state. Every count here is a count of what our own sweep collected about hurricane.","244 outlets in our declared source universe — not the whole internet.","Market prices are the venue's number, cited and graded as an outside sensor. We publish no probability of our own on this record."],"tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"passed":["a claim carried by three or more separate publishers","at least one market question bound to this record"],"failed":["a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself"],"conditions":[{"id":"first-party-read","text":"a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself","passed":false},{"id":"independent-origins","text":"a claim carried by three or more separate publishers","passed":true},{"id":"bound-market-question","text":"at least one market question bound to this record","passed":true}]},"stateNote":"Written definition, from the curated orientation glossary."},"claims":{"key":"claims","heading":"What independent sources agree on","state":"corroborated","source":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these rows","window":{"start":"2026-09-20","end":"2026-09-26"},"counts":{"clustersTotal":1046,"corroborated":2,"published":60,"clustersWithAggregatorOrigin":24,"clustersWithClaimUrl":60,"originsWithReceiptUrl":451,"originsPublished":454,"recordRows":12,"singleSource":10},"publishedTiers":["strong","moderate"],"dropped":1,"note":"12 claims about this subject are on the maintained record for the window Sep 20, 2026 – Sep 26, 2026 — 2 carried by three or more separate publishers, 10 carried by one and labelled single-source. The count is of publishers, not of truth: many outlets echoing one official statement is a wide echo, not a second check.","singleSourceVisible":true,"rows":[{"id":"9d656cde7d07","clusterKey":"9d656cde7d07","claim":"Tropical Storm Nolo expected to become major hurricane as it churns in the Pacific, targeting Hawaii","claimUrl":"https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/09/a-category-5-hurricane-could-be-raging-off-mexicos-pacific-coast-this-week/","tier":"strong","tierLabel":"Cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Four or more separate publishers carried this. Wire copies and republished copies are collapsed first — but publishers all working from one official statement still count separately, so this is agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":12,"origins":["AP","aljazeera.com","businessinsurance.com","cbsnews.com","bbc.co.uk","earthsky.org","euronews.com","foxweather.com","news.google.com","time.com","The Watchers","yaleclimateconnections.org"],"wires":["AP"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-21","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["document","entity"],"originsSummary":"12 separate publishers · 1 wire (AP)","marketLine":null},{"id":"3aca6f93dc3d","clusterKey":"3aca6f93dc3d","claim":"Tropical Storm FAY churning in the open Atlantic makes the 6th named storm of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane season","claimUrl":"https://abcnews.com/US/wireStory/national-hurricane-center-tropical-storm-fay-forms-northern-136597422","tier":"strong","tierLabel":"Cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Four or more separate publishers carried this. Wire copies and republished copies are collapsed first — but publishers all working from one official statement still count separately, so this is agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":6,"origins":["AP","Newswise (press release)","abcnews.com","foxweather.com","news.google.com","nhc.noaa.gov","yaleclimateconnections.org"],"wires":["AP"],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","state":"corroborated","matchedOn":["document","entity"],"originsSummary":"6 separate publishers · 1 wire (AP)","marketLine":null},{"id":"1570e3605a67","clusterKey":"1570e3605a67","claim":"Argentina, US launch ‘Andes-Atlantic Corridor’ to boost infrastructure investment","claimUrl":"https://batimes.com.ar/news/economy/argentina-us-launch-andes-atlantic-corridor-to-boost-infrastructure-investment.phtml","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["batimes.com.ar","northernminer.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-25","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers","marketLine":null},{"id":"d0c1307e2319","clusterKey":"d0c1307e2319","claim":"Hurricane Polo rapidly intensifies to Category 4 status in active Pacific, fueling Southwest flood threat","claimUrl":"https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/polo-odalys-pacific-tropics-southwest-flood","tier":"moderate","tierLabel":"Some cross-source agreement","tierMeaning":"Two or three separate publishers carried this, under the same counting rule — agreement between publishers, not verification of the facts.","independentOrigins":2,"origins":["foxweather.com","news.google.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-22","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"2 separate publishers","marketLine":null},{"id":"40879fbbd96b","clusterKey":"40879fbbd96b","claim":"A repeat of Miami’s 1926 hurricane could cost over $280 billion. That’s more than Hurricane Katrina","claimUrl":"https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2026/09/a-repeat-of-miamis-1926-hurricane-could-cost-over-280-billion-thats-more-than-hurricane-katrina/","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","independentOrigins":1,"origins":["yaleclimateconnections.org"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"1 separate publisher","marketLine":null},{"id":"c3e724dcc278","clusterKey":"c3e724dcc278","claim":"Hurricane Odalys Graphics","claimUrl":"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/121313.shtml?cone","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","independentOrigins":1,"origins":["nhc.noaa.gov"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-22","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"1 separate publisher","marketLine":null},{"id":"d6d7dbd8b62e","clusterKey":"d6d7dbd8b62e","claim":"Green notification for tropical cyclone GONZALO-26. Population affected by Category 1 (120 km/h) wind speeds or higher is 0 (0.419 million in Tropical Storm).","claimUrl":"https://www.gdacs.org/report.aspx?eventtype=TC&eventid=1001323","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","independentOrigins":1,"origins":["gdacs.org"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"1 separate publisher","marketLine":null},{"id":"f0d7992c2114","clusterKey":"f0d7992c2114","claim":"Flood Watch issued September 22 at 2:48PM HST until September 26 at 6:00PM HST by NWS Honolulu HI","claimUrl":"https://api.weather.gov/alerts/urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.59599f54f3e9e47644ed14ad1fd6294e24114766.001.1.cap","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","independentOrigins":1,"origins":["api.weather.gov"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-23","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"1 separate publisher","marketLine":null},{"id":"0a5dbf0c2574","clusterKey":"0a5dbf0c2574","claim":"Tropical Storm Nolo tracker: Map and projected storm path","claimUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAFBVV95cUxQam9keVBpa1h3aWw0TTdjd0xpbUlPaEZPaHZmMS1jbzYzb1BsMGpMZDUyVXd1NFNjYnEzZGo1ZDVpbmtuM05yRnJHLUc2cFR2WV9ZWTlnTWI3ZUdYdGJBdnl2aVhNUlZzYnhxak82RldRVThIY2lTdDFXamJmZmNfTVhMUjUtWVBPUXBoU04tSjB2cklVcERPN3pZMkNnRlV0dDVZbw?oc=5","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","independentOrigins":1,"origins":["news.google.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-22","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"1 separate publisher","marketLine":null},{"id":"3c1849739515","clusterKey":"3c1849739515","claim":"Hurricane Polo exploded into a Category 5 in 24 hours","claimUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMieEFVX3lxTE5zNGd5eXFYeWxoazlHWkhrRDZNUzN0M0RFOVp2NmdYa21SbFQxRHJodGRjdFVPanZsSGZxSGFPQk01ZlpSZEZBbkNuMEhGLTNVWUxwclpKc0N5ZFh1QU9FWS1GTlZHVVIwd0xaclBfbE1pV2hQVEpkbg?oc=5","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","independentOrigins":1,"origins":["news.google.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-23","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"1 separate publisher","marketLine":null},{"id":"9a4f93017538","clusterKey":"9a4f93017538","claim":"Hurricane season maps tracker: cones, water temps and more","claimUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMipAFBVV95cUxQRS1BWXdsTmN2aS14bTBGRnVJZThyUW5FQWRIOWhMYlJwU0stMWRuUGowdFZuNzFOaFlLV1B2a2FBRDVLVnA5dWhLVnJoM0I4STBEUk00RnA5aTFpeDN0R2Yyc3lvTDVVeURueTNFaDZxUUNzaGFjOUtCUk9CVTJteUxoMnRWMU11dlFBSWlPbUFnNTZBSzE4NjZGY2ZaUFd6d2VmcQ?oc=5","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","independentOrigins":1,"origins":["news.google.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-20","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"1 separate publisher","marketLine":null},{"id":"ec2f617c95e3","clusterKey":"ec2f617c95e3","claim":"Hawaii braces for life-threatening flooding again as El Niño supercharges Pacific hurricane season","claimUrl":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMihgFBVV95cUxPa1R1X0RKWE8xeldaY1NpT0hUTk5HMEpNdURBU29lZkFvNjR3TWtfTlhOZkI3b00yTS1XN0xGeTM3UlJWakREV0l1dGhXUjB0NG9NVHhJTDJDWUs1bnhfU0JCVmdFa181c3lreUVqc1M3UXVZVVh0eTRzRkQ4aXdlVUNDUHBKZ9IBiwFBVV95cUxQSTJPci1Vd3dIUHVER2h2U3ZqQTFycG1CNzhXUktFOVlqYnlsajlobHZzU3FrM0ljNnMzYWM3OFdlSmNZNk1qRlNnbloyZHFyMjhaZEdJVmY4bkdYRTY0YVU2eEZjWWxrTzVYalJEX2pNSDZiY1hSSVBINTE0a2dFMzd1Q1lXNFNXY1B3?oc=5","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One publisher. Nothing separate has carried it.","independentOrigins":1,"origins":["news.google.com"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-09-22","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"originsSummary":"1 separate publisher","marketLine":null}]},"primaryDocuments":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[],"key":"primaryDocuments","heading":"What the issuing authorities publish","undatedCount":0,"undatedNote":null},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","heading":"What prediction markets price","state":"priced","joinPerformed":true,"eventSlug":"disaster-event-atlantic-hurricane","counts":{"eventReceipts":6,"entityCaptures":1,"served":7,"live":6,"expired":1},"newestPriceStamp":"2026-09-26","venueStatusNote":null,"note":"7 market questions ride this record, newest price stamp Sep 26, 2026 — 6 still open by their own deadline, 1 past it and kept as recorded. A price is the venue's number, cited as one outside sensor and graded against how reality resolved; it is never a probability of ours.","rows":[{"question":"Will the first Atlantic hurricane form between September 1 and September 10, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-next-atlantic-hurricane-form-between-september-1-and-september-10-2026-20260904095717151","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":1,"pricedAt":"2026-09-11","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-09-11","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will no Atlantic hurricane form in September 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-no-atlantic-hurricane-form-in-september-2026-20260904095717156","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":95.95,"pricedAt":"2026-09-26","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-10-01","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will there be 1-3 hurricanes during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-there-be-1-3-hurricanes-during-the-atlantic-hurricane-season-in-2026-20260728204231221","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":62.5,"pricedAt":"2026-09-26","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-01","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Cristobal?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-name-of-the-first-hurricane-in-the-atlantic-for-the-2026-hurricane-season-be-20260723185412700","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.15,"pricedAt":"2026-09-26","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-11-30","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Dolly?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-name-of-the-first-hurricane-in-the-atlantic-for-the-2026-hurricane-season-be-20260723185412701","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.35,"pricedAt":"2026-09-26","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-01","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will the name of the first hurricane in the Atlantic for the 2026 Hurricane Season be Edouard?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-the-name-of-the-first-hurricane-in-the-atlantic-for-the-2026-hurricane-season-be-20260723185412702","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.95,"pricedAt":"2026-09-26","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-01","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will no Atlantic hurricane form in September 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/event/when-will-the-first-hurricane-form-in-the-atlantic-in-2026-20260904095717296","source":"Polymarket (ai-tech)","probabilityPct":96,"change24hPct":null,"pricedAt":"2026-09-26","capturedAt":"2026-09-16","deadline":null,"deadlinePassed":false,"reading":"belief, not fact","venueStatus":null,"origin":"entity-capture"}],"basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred"},"refereeGrades":{"key":"refereeGrades","heading":"How our cited sensor has scored","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the per-subject accuracy check","grades":[],"note":"We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Disaster: Atlantic & Hurricane has been scored, so this section can say nothing about it on its own. 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That is unmeasured, not a clean bill."},"corroboratedNow":{"state":"measured","count":12,"text":"Independent sources agree on 12 things about Disaster: Atlantic & Hurricane in the current window: “Tropical Storm Nolo expected to become major hurricane as it churns in the Pacific, targeting Hawaii” (12 separate publishers · 1 wire (AP), earliest Sep 21, 2026); “Tropical Storm FAY churning in the open Atlantic makes the 6th named storm of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane season” (6 separate publishers · 1 wire (AP), earliest Sep 20, 2026), and 10 more on the record."},"singleSource":{"state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 4 recorded changes for Disaster: Atlantic & Hurricane, the most recent on Sep 26, 2026 — each one a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},"divergence":{"state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Will no Atlantic hurricane form in September 2026?” at 95.95% (polymarket, Sep 26, 2026), while our own record holds 12 claims carried by three or more separate publishers. The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},"heldAsProvenance":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."},"inputsDropped":[{"input":"10 corroborated claim rows","why":"shown on the claims section rather than repeated in the read"},{"input":"single-source reporting","why":"no press-claims ledger exists for this subject; the corroborated feed does not publish uncleared tiers"},{"input":"1 market questions past their deadline","why":"kept as historical capture, never presented as current expectation"}],"synthesis":null,"synthesisNote":"No synthesis is written for this record. A synthesis is our own paragraph over corroborated claims with receipts; until it is computed, the clauses above are the whole read and nothing is templated to look like one.","basis":[{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Tropical Storm Nolo expected to become major hurricane as it churns in the Pacific, targeting Hawaii","asOf":"2026-09-21"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Tropical Storm FAY churning in the open Atlantic makes the 6th named storm of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane season","asOf":"2026-09-20"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Argentina, US launch ‘Andes-Atlantic Corridor’ to boost infrastructure investment","asOf":"2026-09-25"},{"kind":"market sensor","text":"Will no Atlantic hurricane form in September 2026? — 95.95% (polymarket)","asOf":"2026-09-26"}],"clauses":[{"key":"firstParty","label":"What the issuing authorities say","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so this record carries no document from an issuing authority. That is unmeasured, not a clean bill."},{"key":"corroboratedNow","label":"What independent sources agree on","state":"measured","count":12,"text":"Independent sources agree on 12 things about Disaster: Atlantic & Hurricane in the current window: “Tropical Storm Nolo expected to become major hurricane as it churns in the Pacific, targeting Hawaii” (12 separate publishers · 1 wire (AP), earliest Sep 21, 2026); “Tropical Storm FAY churning in the open Atlantic makes the 6th named storm of the 2026 Atlantic Hurricane season” (6 separate publishers · 1 wire (AP), earliest Sep 20, 2026), and 10 more on the record."},{"key":"singleSource","label":"What rests on one source","state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},{"key":"contradicted","label":"What contradicts","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},{"key":"changedSinceLastRead","label":"What changed","state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 4 recorded changes for Disaster: Atlantic & Hurricane, the most recent on Sep 26, 2026 — each one a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},{"key":"divergence","label":"The outside sensor, beside our record","state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Will no Atlantic hurricane form in September 2026?” at 95.95% (polymarket, Sep 26, 2026), while our own record holds 12 claims carried by three or more separate publishers. The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},{"key":"heldAsProvenance","label":"Held as provenance","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"states":{"firstParty":"cannot-measure","corroboratedNow":"measured","singleSource":"cannot-measure","contradicted":"cannot-measure","changedSinceLastRead":"measured","divergence":"measured","heldAsProvenance":"cannot-measure"}},"changeLog":{"key":"changeLog","heading":"What changed, and when","state":"recorded","started":null,"note":"The ledger holds 4 recorded changes for Disaster: Atlantic & Hurricane, the most recent on Sep 26, 2026 — each one a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact.","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"rising","at":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-06T15:09:28.353077+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-06T15:09:28.353077+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-09-26T14:52:38.279544+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-09-26T14:52:38.279544+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00"}]},"verify":{"key":"verify","heading":"Verify it yourself","state":"measured","rest":"curl -s https://sigb.ai/api/truth/disaster-event-atlantic-hurricane","mcp":"curl -s https://sigb.ai/api/mcp -X POST -H 'content-type: application/json' \\\n  -d '{\"jsonrpc\":\"2.0\",\"id\":1,\"method\":\"tools/call\",\"params\":{\"name\":\"get_truth_object\",\"arguments\":{\"topic\":\"disaster-event-atlantic-hurricane\"}}}'","resource":null,"page":null,"note":"This page, GET /api/truth/disaster-event-atlantic-hurricane and the get_truth_object tool are assembled by one builder, so what you fetch is what you are reading."},"limits":{"key":"limits","heading":"What this record does not tell you","state":"measured","derived":[{"section":"refereeGrades","text":"How our cited sensor has scored: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the per-subject accuracy check. We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Disaster: Atlantic & H"},{"section":"ourAttention","text":"How closely we are watching: we could not measure it."},{"section":"ourRead.firstParty","text":"What the issuing authorities say: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the first-party read. No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so this record carries no document from an issuing authority. That is unmeasured, not a clean bill."},{"section":"ourRead.singleSource","text":"What rests on one source: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the single-source tier. We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},{"section":"ourRead.contradicted","text":"What contradicts: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is no polarity-comparable pair. We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},{"section":"ourRead.heldAsProvenance","text":"Held as provenance: we could not measure it. No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"standing":[],"note":"6 sections on this record came back \"we could not look\". Each is named below with the pass that failed, generated from the section's own state rather than typed here."},"provenance":{"key":"provenance","heading":"Where this record comes from","state":"measured","asOf":"2026-09-26","generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:26:29.232977+00:00","recordVersion":"sb.tr-6fc7b677","releaseId":null,"builtAt":null,"releaseState":"cannot-measure","releaseNote":"the release manifest is a deploy-time asset (/release.json), stamped on the served response, never bundled into the record at build time","slaRow":null,"slaNote":"No freshness clock is registered for this record's own inputs yet; the sections above each carry the date they speak for."},"record":{"schema":"sb.truth-record.v1","slug":"disaster-event-atlantic-hurricane","kind":"event","subjectState":"dormant","tier":"full","tierBasis":{"computed":"full","served":"full","passed":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read","at least 3 independent publishers on a joined claim","no unresolved contradiction on the record","at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":[],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"tierChangedAt":"2026-09-22","previousTier":"full","subject":{"label":"Disaster: Atlantic & Hurricane","aliases":["atlantic","disaster-event-atlantic-hurricane","disaster: atlantic & hurricane","hurricane"],"eventKey":"disaster-event-atlantic-hurricane","entityKeys":["atlantic","disaster-event-atlantic-hurricane","disaster: atlantic & hurricane","hurricane"],"mergedSlugs":[],"eventSlugs":["disaster-event-atlantic-hurricane"]},"definition":{"whatThisIs":"Disaster: Atlantic & Hurricane is an event Signal Bureau maintains a record of (disaster). 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