{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"ai-model-race","title":"The AI model race record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","asOf":"2026-08-08","generatedAt":"2026-08-08T23:26:25.200604+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/truth/ai-model-race and answers the get_truth_object MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://signalbureau.ai/api/truth/ai-model-race so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources — outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source","items":[{"title":"EP82: Claude Mythos / Fable 5 RELEASED -- Anthropic's New Frontier AI (Deep Dive, 80% SWE-Bench) Christine Lagarde (0crRCso3o2) - Mshale","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiW0FVX3lxTE9fTzhZUDFKSzhkS2RPNmVOVE9pOFdMSzQ5OHhrcFNBWmd4NFBDWHZuVkFqUlp0T1YzU21yeXBiZmpKbnkyUEtQcHZVQms3Mm8tajEyRVZLcDJtVUE?oc=5&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Google Legend Jeff Dean Launches AI Startup With ‘Insane’ Pitch Deck That Has Everyone Talking - trak.in","url":"https://news.google.com/rss/articles/CBMiuAFBVV95cUxPeFNPRnkzdnlMb1J4eFhMc1U5b0V2N2U2djlmTC03X0JwOWZVeUpUcE15NmQ2Uk1ITnJPOFU1TTFSNUFXVXJ6cUpfNXhvU1MyQUg0V2ctVW1UVFMxc1pnRGMwZ0ljUVBsYVdiSjJNV2JoR2JTX0ZNQXkwcFA4WG1WYkFwZmMtekZUd1BUUVJ3VGZVVHo0bUJ3Y3VhLTBFV3JsV2h6VWkxWUhoZV9TQV9sRHlvbFNOSFp3?oc=5&hl=en-US&gl=US&ceid=US:en","tier":"social/aggregator","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"AI agents use roughly 600 times more energy than a simple chat prompt","url":"https://the-decoder.com/ai-agents-use-roughly-600-times-more-energy-than-a-simple-chat-prompt/","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Managing AI Coding Costs at Scale","url":"https://www.databricks.com/blog/managing-ai-coding-costs-scale","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"After Rippling blew millions on AI in months, it built an employee ROI tool","url":"https://techcrunch.com/2026/08/07/after-rippling-blew-millions-on-ai-in-months-it-built-an-employee-roi-tool/","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","documents":4245,"outlets":525,"activeDays":145,"firstSeen":"2026-03-03","lastSeen":"2026-08-08","homeDomains":["ai_investing"],"asserts":null,"assertionCoverage":0.192,"movesWith":[{"label":"openai","n":719,"sharedDomains":["ai_investing"],"verbs":{"acquisition":2,"meeting-visit":2}},{"label":"anthropic","n":677,"sharedDomains":["ai_investing"],"verbs":{"meeting-visit":2}},{"label":"google","n":400,"sharedDomains":["ai_investing"],"verbs":{"acquisition":2}},{"label":"nvidia","n":267,"sharedDomains":["ai_investing"]},{"label":"china","n":447,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"meta","n":176,"sharedDomains":["ai_investing"]},{"label":"microsoft","n":300,"sharedDomains":[]},{"label":"iran","n":231,"sharedDomains":[]}],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"steady","baselineRelativePct":-24,"reading":"Our coverage of The AI model race is 24% below its 3-week baseline. This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":91,"eventMentions":9416,"periods":[{"period":"2027-12","mentions":525},{"period":"2027-09","mentions":21},{"period":"2027-06","mentions":42},{"period":"2027-03","mentions":21},{"period":"2027","mentions":1239},{"period":"2026-12","mentions":440},{"period":"2026-10","mentions":68},{"period":"2026-09","mentions":674}]},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"The AI model race","slug":"ai-model-race","questionCount":60,"questions":["OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?","Will DeepSeek have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?","Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?","Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?","Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?","Will the next GPT model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1500 by December 31, 2026?"],"mentions":9416,"firstSeen":"2026-03-29","lastSeen":"2026-08-08"}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-08-08","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery."},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-07-28T15:28:32.475746+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-27T15:37:45.852260+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"rising","at":"2026-07-29T16:14:44.489092+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-28T15:28:32.475746+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-08-03T15:44:09.453412+00:00","heldSince":"2026-07-29T16:14:44.489092+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"rising","at":"2026-08-04T15:37:19.750066+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-03T15:44:09.453412+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-08-08T15:01:41.302777+00:00","heldSince":"2026-08-04T15:37:19.750066+00:00"}]}}}