{"schema":"sb.truth.v1","subject":"ai-model-race","title":"The AI model race record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"ai","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"ai\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"The AI model race\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. 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This measures our attention — how much our tracked set is writing about it — not the event itself.","trackedDays":140,"eventMentions":28165,"periods":[{"period":"2030","mentions":7},{"period":"2029-12","mentions":8},{"period":"2028-12","mentions":8},{"period":"2028","mentions":22},{"period":"2027-12","mentions":1345},{"period":"2027-11","mentions":24},{"period":"2027-10","mentions":24},{"period":"2027-09","mentions":80}],"key":"ourAttention","heading":"How closely we are watching","state":"measured","directionWord":"steady","glyph":"→"},"ourRead":{"key":"ourRead","heading":"Our read","basisNote":"our analysis of this record's own dated sections; ours, and labeled ours — never a forecast, and never a probability of ours","asOf":"2026-09-26","firstParty":{"state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so this record carries no document from an issuing authority. That is unmeasured, not a clean bill."},"corroboratedNow":{"state":"measured","count":12,"text":"Independent sources agree on 12 things about The AI model race in the current window: “Trump greets China’s Xi at airport in historic move — as nations agree to trade truce to kick off high-stakes DC visit” (53 separate publishers · 5 wires (AP, Bloomberg, Reuters, TASS, Xinhua), earliest Sep 20, 2026); “Trump welcomes China's Xi for state dinner at White House after touting \"truly great friendship\"” (22 separate publishers · 1 wire (AP), earliest Sep 20, 2026), and 10 more on the record."},"singleSource":{"state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 3 recorded changes for The AI model race, the most recent on Sep 26, 2026 — each one a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},"divergence":{"state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?” at 0.55% (polymarket, Sep 26, 2026), while our own record holds 12 claims carried by three or more separate publishers. The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},"heldAsProvenance":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."},"inputsDropped":[{"input":"10 corroborated claim rows","why":"shown on the claims section rather than repeated in the read"},{"input":"single-source reporting","why":"no press-claims ledger exists for this subject; the corroborated feed does not publish uncleared tiers"},{"input":"entity priced captures","why":"our own sweep captured no priced row for this subject; the market rows here come from the event's venue receipts"}],"synthesis":null,"synthesisNote":"No synthesis is written for this record. A synthesis is our own paragraph over corroborated claims with receipts; until it is computed, the clauses above are the whole read and nothing is templated to look like one.","basis":[{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Trump greets China’s Xi at airport in historic move — as nations agree to trade truce to kick off high-stakes DC visit","asOf":"2026-09-20"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Trump welcomes China's Xi for state dinner at White House after touting \"truly great friendship\"","asOf":"2026-09-20"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"OpenAI agent got into Australia's Medicare stats portal with 84-day notification delay","asOf":"2026-09-23"},{"kind":"market sensor","text":"Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? — 0.55% (polymarket)","asOf":"2026-09-26"}],"clauses":[{"key":"firstParty","label":"What the issuing authorities say","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so this record carries no document from an issuing authority. That is unmeasured, not a clean bill."},{"key":"corroboratedNow","label":"What independent sources agree on","state":"measured","count":12,"text":"Independent sources agree on 12 things about The AI model race in the current window: “Trump greets China’s Xi at airport in historic move — as nations agree to trade truce to kick off high-stakes DC visit” (53 separate publishers · 5 wires (AP, Bloomberg, Reuters, TASS, Xinhua), earliest Sep 20, 2026); “Trump welcomes China's Xi for state dinner at White House after touting \"truly great friendship\"” (22 separate publishers · 1 wire (AP), earliest Sep 20, 2026), and 10 more on the record."},{"key":"singleSource","label":"What rests on one source","state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},{"key":"contradicted","label":"What contradicts","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"pass":"no polarity-comparable pair","examined":0,"text":"We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},{"key":"changedSinceLastRead","label":"What changed","state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 3 recorded changes for The AI model race, the most recent on Sep 26, 2026 — each one a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},{"key":"divergence","label":"The outside sensor, beside our record","state":"measured","text":"Side by side, unreconciled: a venue prices “Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?” at 0.55% (polymarket, Sep 26, 2026), while our own record holds 12 claims carried by three or more separate publishers. The price is the venue's number and we publish it as one; we do not blend it into ours, and we hold no probability of our own on this record."},{"key":"heldAsProvenance","label":"Held as provenance","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"states":{"firstParty":"cannot-measure","corroboratedNow":"measured","singleSource":"cannot-measure","contradicted":"cannot-measure","changedSinceLastRead":"measured","divergence":"measured","heldAsProvenance":"cannot-measure"}},"changeLog":{"key":"changeLog","heading":"What changed, and when","state":"recorded","started":null,"note":"The ledger holds 3 recorded changes for The AI model race, the most recent on Sep 26, 2026 — each one a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact.","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-09-24T14:57:43.912252+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-11T14:52:54.715089+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"steady","to":"rising","at":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-24T14:57:43.912252+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"steady","at":"2026-09-26T14:52:38.279544+00:00","heldSince":"2026-09-25T14:57:07.225130+00:00"}]},"verify":{"key":"verify","heading":"Verify it yourself","state":"measured","rest":"curl -s https://sigb.ai/api/truth/ai-model-race","mcp":"curl -s https://sigb.ai/api/mcp -X POST -H 'content-type: application/json' \\\n  -d '{\"jsonrpc\":\"2.0\",\"id\":1,\"method\":\"tools/call\",\"params\":{\"name\":\"get_truth_object\",\"arguments\":{\"topic\":\"ai-model-race\"}}}'","resource":null,"page":null,"note":"This page, GET /api/truth/ai-model-race and the get_truth_object tool are assembled by one builder, so what you fetch is what you are reading."},"limits":{"key":"limits","heading":"What this record does not tell you","state":"measured","derived":[{"section":"refereeGrades","text":"How our cited sensor has scored: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the per-subject accuracy check. We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to The AI model race has"},{"section":"ourRead.firstParty","text":"What the issuing authorities say: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the first-party read. No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so this record carries no document from an issuing authority. That is unmeasured, not a clean bill."},{"section":"ourRead.singleSource","text":"What rests on one source: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the single-source tier. We cannot count single-source reporting on this subject: no press-claims ledger has been computed for it, and the corroborated feed publishes only the tiers that cleared the bar (strong, moderate), so its silence measures the feed, not the reporting."},{"section":"ourRead.contradicted","text":"What contradicts: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is no polarity-comparable pair. We could not measure contradiction: this record holds no pair of claims about the same proposition, so there is nothing a polarity test could run on. That is a blank we did not look in, never a clean bill."},{"section":"ourRead.heldAsProvenance","text":"Held as provenance: we could not measure it. No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"standing":[],"note":"5 sections on this record came back \"we could not look\". Each is named below with the pass that failed, generated from the section's own state rather than typed here."},"provenance":{"key":"provenance","heading":"Where this record comes from","state":"measured","asOf":"2026-09-26","generatedAt":"2026-09-26T23:26:29.232977+00:00","recordVersion":"sb.tr-9ab60822","releaseId":null,"builtAt":null,"releaseState":"cannot-measure","releaseNote":"the release manifest is a deploy-time asset (/release.json), stamped on the served response, never bundled into the record at build time","slaRow":null,"slaNote":"No freshness clock is registered for this record's own inputs yet; the sections above each carry the date they speak for."},"record":{"schema":"sb.truth-record.v1","slug":"ai-model-race","kind":"event","subjectState":"active","tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"computed":"standard","served":"standard","passed":["at least 3 independent publishers on a joined claim","no unresolved contradiction on the record","at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read"],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"tierChangedAt":"2026-09-07","previousTier":"standard","subject":{"label":"The AI model race","aliases":["ai","ai benchmark","ai-model-race","anthropic","astra","benchmark leapfrog","chatgpt","china","claude fable","claude opus","deepseek","frontier ai"],"eventKey":"ai-model-race","entityKeys":["ai","ai-model-race","anthropic","astra","china","claude opus","deepseek","openai","product launch: anthropic","product launch: anthropic & claude opus","product-launch-anthropic","product-launch-anthropic-claude-opus","the ai model race"],"mergedSlugs":["product-launch-anthropic","product-launch-anthropic-claude-opus"],"eventSlugs":["ai-model-race","product-launch-anthropic","product-launch-anthropic-claude-opus"]},"definition":{"whatThisIs":"The AI model race is an event Signal Bureau maintains a record of (curated event). The record joins 7422 document(s) from 1182 outlet(s) in the corpus.","whyTracked":"Registered in the publication registry, which is deny-by-default: a subject is served only once it is registered.","coverageSince":"2026-03-29","coverageSinceBasis":"first counted document (event-graph)","coverageSinceState":"measured","coverageSinceReason":null,"coverageSinceAlternates":[{"date":"2026-07-16","basis":"registered in the publication registry"}],"notCovered":["No probability of ours: this record reports what sources and markets say, and grades them. It does not forecast.","No primary-source layer is registered for this subject, so no first-party document is read for it.","The calibration referee has graded nothing on this subject, so no accuracy record is shown."],"tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"computed":"standard","served":"standard","passed":["at least 3 independent publishers on a joined claim","no unresolved contradiction on the record","at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read"],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"state":"templated-from-structure","reason":""},"claims":[{"clusterKey":"714b9e7d0805","claim":"Trump greets China’s Xi at airport in historic move — as nations agree to trade truce to kick off high-stakes DC visit","claimUrl":"https://www.19fortyfive.com/2026/09/donald-trump-says-he-could-annihilate-iran-in-the-coming-weeks/","tier":{"id":"strong","label":"Cross-source agreement","meaning":"Four or more separate publishers carried this. 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