{"schema":"sb.record.v1","schemaAliases":["sb.truth.v1"],"subject":"election-brazil","title":"The Election: Brazil record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry: reporting, our coverage metric, market expectation, and state history. No primary-source layer yet — first-party issuer verification is what upgrades a record to full tier, the discipline the hormuz record demonstrates.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"brazil","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"brazil\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Election: Brazil\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: santos — the registry attaches it to this event, but the subject line does not name it.","candidatesConsidered":["brazil","santos"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":["santos"],"actionClass":"election"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-10-24","currency":{"state":"current","asOf":"2026-10-19","basis":{"asOf":"2026-10-24","newestObservationAt":"2026-10-19","newestObservationBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","ageDays":5,"expectedCadenceDays":11,"cadenceBasis":"this record's own observed cadence — 9 active day(s) over a 95-day window","graceMultiple":1,"wallMultiple":3,"blindSources":[],"retiredAt":null,"recordState":"measured"},"sentence":"This record is current: the newest source item is from 2026-10-19, inside its expected cadence of about one item every 11 days.","layers":{"reportingCounts":{"key":"reportingCounts","label":"count of reporting we hold","asOf":"2026-10-19","asOfBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","computedAt":"2026-10-24T23:28:52.671179+00:00","expectedCadenceDays":11,"gapDays":5,"state":"current","reason":""},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","label":"market sensor","asOf":"2026-10-24","asOfBasis":"no bound question is still open by its own deadline; dated by when the venue receipts were last read","computedAt":"2026-10-24","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"note":"No market question on this record is still open by its own deadline (checked against 2026-10-24): 6 have passed their deadline and are kept as historical capture, never current expectation. Prices are a sensor we cite and grade, never a probability of ours.","state":"current","reason":""},"corroboration":{"key":"corroboration","label":"corroboration pass","asOf":"2026-10-24","asOfBasis":"the end of the corroboration engine's document window","computedAt":"2026-10-24T19:48:21.447777Z","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""}},"weakestLayer":null,"stateBasis":"the worse of the record's own verdict (newest observation against its cadence, blind primary sources, retirement) and the weakest layer's state: a layer behind or undatable makes a current record not reliably current"},"generatedAt":"2026-10-24T23:28:52.671179+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/record/election-brazil (earlier address /api/truth/election-brazil, still answers) and answers the get_topic_record MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/record/election-brazil so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources: outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for SUBJECT MEMBERSHIP, not just the subject's name: \"brazil\" is the key its corpus was sampled on, so the name alone proves nothing about this event. Every row is judged by the platform's one membership gate (cross_domain.claim_subject_relevance.judge_membership) when the record's data is built, and only the rows it cleared are served; each names the gate's basis in relevance and the terms it found in eventTerms.","status":"observed","note":"Subject-membership filtered: 10 attributable rows sampled for \"brazil\", 2 served, 8 withheld (8 judged off-subject, 0 the gate could not judge). The served count is reduced on purpose and reported, never quietly smaller.","sampledForSubject":10,"served":2,"withheldNotEventRelevant":8,"withheldOffSubject":8,"withheldUnmeasured":0,"membershipGate":"cross_domain.claim_subject_relevance.judge_membership","relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["brazil"],"questionSet":[],"gate":"cross_domain.claim_subject_relevance.judge_membership"},"items":[{"title":"Bolsonaro Lead Over Lula Shrinks as Trump Stays on Brazil Election Sideline","url":"https://www.newsweek.com/bolsonaro-lead-over-lula-shrinks-as-trump-stays-on-brazil-election-sideline-12613289","date":"2026-10-24","source":"Newsweek","eventTerms":["brazil"],"relevance":"membership:participant-and-type","membership":"clear","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Brazil accuses Milei of election-meddling for calling Lula ‘thief’ ahead of vote","url":"https://batimes.com.ar/news/latin-america/brazil-accuses-milei-of-election-meddling-for-calling-lula-thief-ahead-of-vote.phtml","date":"2026-10-21","source":"Buenos Aires Times","eventTerms":["brazil"],"relevance":"membership:participant-and-type","membership":"clear","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":129,"outlets":51,"activeDays":9,"firstSeen":"2026-07-17","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-10-19","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-07-17","end":"2026-10-19","activeDays":9,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 9 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":2422,"outlets":396,"activeDays":58,"since":"2026-06-25","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-10-24","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":[],"asserts":null,"assertsUnit":null,"assertionCoverage":0.088,"movesWith":[{"name":"china","together":714},{"name":"india","together":567},{"name":"united states","together":547},{"name":"africa","together":468},{"name":"ai","together":459},{"name":"france","together":442},{"name":"trump","together":409},{"name":"latin america","together":392}],"movesWithLabels":["china","india","united states","africa","ai","france","trump","latin america"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"insufficient_history","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":3477,"periods":{"state":"withheld","reason":"the event registry keeps mention counts per resolution window, not per day we observed them, so this card cannot date our attention by period; the resolution windows are served as resolutionWindows"}},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"none-captured","rowsNote":"Measured zero: no priced capture rides \"brazil\" in this build.","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Election: Brazil","slug":"election-brazil","questionCount":12,"questions":["Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?","Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?","Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?","Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?","Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?","Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?"],"mentions":3477,"firstSeen":"2026-07-17","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-10-19","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-10-24","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"brazil\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Election: Brazil\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: santos — the registry attaches it to this event, but the subject line does not name it. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: no primary-source layer exists here yet."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[],"fold":{"state":"pending","lists":{"kernel":{"state":"pending","total":0,"returned":0,"statement":"pending: no consensus ledger has been computed for this subject yet, so there are no kernel rows to unfold."},"frames":{"state":"pending","total":0,"returned":0,"statement":"pending: no consensus ledger has been computed for this subject yet, so there are no frames rows to unfold."},"retired":{"state":"pending","total":0,"returned":0,"statement":"pending: no consensus ledger has been computed for this subject yet, so there are no retired rows to unfold."}},"limits":{"responseBudgetBytes":262144,"pageBytes":131072,"doorEnvelopeReserveBytes":131072,"exhibitBudgetBytes":131072,"defaultPageBytes":32768,"defaultPageSize":25,"maxPageSize":100,"defaultShown":{"kernel":25,"frames":5,"retired":5},"statement":"No default response carries the whole consensus ledger. Each list (kernel, frames, retired) is folded to its count and a first page of at most kernel 25 headline rows, frames 5, retired 5, each at most 32 KiB; the rows shown are then measured so the exhibit stays within its 128 KiB share, and a topic-record response stays under 256 KiB. The other 128 KiB is reserved for the door's own fields (the maintained record, scope, pointers), which the fold does not measure (pass: door-envelope); each fold states its measured fit under layers.consensus.fold.fit. Unfold a list a page at a time: pageSize 1-100 (default 25), and a page also stops at 128 KiB of rows, returning a cursor for the rest. A page limit is a cursor, never an edge: follow nextCursor until it is null and you hold every row, in the ledger's own order."}}},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"none-recorded","note":"Measured zero: the ledger holds no coverage-state transition for \"brazil\". We do not backfill history we did not record.","transitions":[]}},"sectionOrder":["definition","primaryDocuments","claims","theRecord","ourAttention","marketSensor","refereeGrades","ourRead","changeLog","limits","verify","provenance"],"definition":{"key":"definition","heading":"What this record is","state":"templated-from-structure","whatThisIs":"A topic on our watch list — we track its coverage across 54 coverage verticals, including Latin America, Auto and Forestry.","whyTracked":"We hold 129 documents from 51 outlets over 9 active days. It runs through 18 coverage domains we watch, including Latin America, Auto, Forestry. 12 market questions price outcomes under the event bound to it.","coverageSince":{"date":"2026-07-17","status":"observed","text":"Our first document on this subject is dated Jul 17, 2026; the count above is everything since."},"notCovered":["Our attention, not the world's state. Every count here is a count of what our own sweep collected about brazil.","51 outlets in our declared source universe — not the whole internet.","Market prices are the venue's number, cited and graded as an outside sensor. We publish no probability of our own on this record.","No claim on this subject in the current window was carried from three or more separate origins, so nothing below rests on one."],"tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"passed":["at least one market question bound to this record"],"failed":["a claim carried from three or more separate origins"],"cannotMeasure":["a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself"],"conditions":[{"id":"first-party-read","text":"a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"PASS NOT RUN: primary-source layer - no first-party issuer row is registered for this record, so no read was attempted","passed":false},{"id":"independent-origins","text":"a claim carried from three or more separate origins","state":"breach","reason":"Claims joined; none carried from three or more separate origins","passed":false},{"id":"bound-market-question","text":"at least one market question bound to this record","state":"clear","reason":null,"passed":true}]},"stateNote":"No written definition yet — this line is generated from what we hold, so it cannot claim more than the record does."},"claims":{"key":"claims","heading":"What separate sources agree on","state":"corroborated","source":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these rows","window":{"start":"2026-10-18","end":"2026-10-24"},"counts":{"clustersTotal":1667,"corroborated":0,"published":60,"questionExcluded":12,"clustersWithAggregatorOrigin":0,"clustersWithClaimUrl":60,"originsWithReceiptUrl":429,"originsPublished":429,"recordRows":2,"singleSource":2,"reportedByTwo":0,"contested":0,"cannotCheck":0},"standingCounts":{"corroborated":0,"reported-by-2":0,"single-source":2,"contested":0,"cannot-check":0},"publishedTiers":["strong","moderate"],"dropped":0,"note":"2 claims about this subject are on the maintained record for the window Oct 18, 2026 – Oct 24, 2026: 0 carried from three or more separate origins, 0 reported by two, 2 from a single source. The count is of separate origins, not of truth: outlets relaying one named upstream count once, and many outlets echoing one official statement is still a wide echo, not a second check.","singleSourceVisible":true,"rows":[{"id":"609cbc6ae0ea","clusterKey":"609cbc6ae0ea","claim":"Bolsonaro's lead over Lula narrows ahead Brazil runoff, Quaest poll shows","claimUrl":"https://www.france24.com/en/americas/20261019-brazil-lula-bolsonaro-debate-election-runoff","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One origin, however many publishers carried it. Nothing separate has reported it.","independentOrigins":1,"publisherCount":2,"originCount":2,"originsUnknownUpstream":1,"knownOriginCount":1,"originState":"measured","origins":["Reuters","france24.com"],"wires":["Reuters"],"earliestDate":"2026-10-19","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["entity"],"receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"standing":"single-source","originsSummary":"carried by 2 publishers from 2 separate origins · 1 wire (Reuters)","marketLine":null},{"id":"2cfa36d73a24","clusterKey":"2cfa36d73a24","claim":"Brazil accuses Milei of election-meddling for calling Lula ‘thief’ ahead of vote","claimUrl":"https://batimes.com.ar/news/latin-america/brazil-again-accuses-milei-of-election-interference-after-lula-remark.phtml","tier":"weak","tierLabel":"Single source","tierMeaning":"One origin, however many publishers carried it. Nothing separate has reported it.","independentOrigins":1,"publisherCount":1,"originCount":1,"originsUnknownUpstream":0,"knownOriginCount":1,"originState":"measured","origins":["batimes.com.ar"],"wires":[],"earliestDate":"2026-10-20","state":"single-source","matchedOn":["document","entity"],"receiptState":"measured","receiptReason":null,"standing":"single-source","originsSummary":"carried by 1 publisher from 1 separate origin","marketLine":null}]},"primaryDocuments":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"absent","basis":"not present on a standard-tier record — no first-party issuer has been routed for this subject yet; nothing here is previewed to look finished","sources":[],"key":"primaryDocuments","heading":"What the issuing authorities publish","undatedCount":0,"undatedNote":null},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","heading":"What prediction markets price","state":"priced","joinPerformed":true,"eventSlug":"election-brazil","rowsFrom":"maintained-record","counts":{"eventReceipts":6,"entityCaptures":0,"served":6,"live":0,"expired":6,"undated":0},"newestPriceStamp":"2026-10-05","live":{"count":0,"priceAsOf":null,"questions":[]},"historical":{"count":6,"questions":["Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?","Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?","Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?","Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?","Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?","Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?"]},"undated":{"count":0,"questions":[]},"deadlineCheckedAgainst":"2026-10-25","reading":"No market question on this record is still open by its own deadline (checked against 2026-10-25): 6 have passed their deadline and are kept as historical capture, never current expectation. Prices are a sensor we cite and grade, never a probability of ours.","venueStatusNote":"Whether each question is still open at its venue is not verified in this record; the receipt carries the venue's own status as unknown.","note":"6 market questions ride this record, newest price stamp Oct 5, 2026. A price is the venue's number, cited as one outside sensor and graded against how reality resolved; it is never a probability of ours.","rows":[{"question":"Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-tarcisio-de-frietas-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.05,"pricedAt":"2026-10-05","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-10-05","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"historical","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-ronaldo-caiado-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.05,"pricedAt":"2026-10-05","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-10-05","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"historical","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-romeu-zema-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.05,"pricedAt":"2026-10-05","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-10-05","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"historical","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-renan-santos-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.05,"pricedAt":"2026-10-05","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-10-05","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"historical","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-fernando-haddad-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.05,"pricedAt":"2026-10-05","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-10-05","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"historical","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-carlos-roberto-massa-jnior-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":0.05,"pricedAt":"2026-10-05","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-10-05","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"historical","deadlinePassed":true,"venueStatus":"unknown","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"}],"basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred"},"refereeGrades":{"key":"refereeGrades","heading":"How our cited sensor has scored","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the per-subject accuracy check","grades":[],"note":"We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Election: Brazil has been scored, so this section can say nothing about it on its own. The scoring anyone can read is at https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/calibration-data.","where":"https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/calibration-data"},"theRecord":{"label":"The record itself","basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 9 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"],"state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":129,"outlets":51,"activeDays":9,"firstSeen":"2026-07-17","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-10-19","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-07-17","end":"2026-10-19","activeDays":9,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 9 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":2422,"outlets":396,"activeDays":58,"since":"2026-06-25","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-10-24","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":[],"asserts":null,"assertsUnit":null,"assertionCoverage":0.088,"movesWith":[{"name":"china","together":714},{"name":"india","together":567},{"name":"united states","together":547},{"name":"africa","together":468},{"name":"ai","together":459},{"name":"france","together":442},{"name":"trump","together":409},{"name":"latin america","together":392}],"movesWithLabels":["china","india","united states","africa","ai","france","trump","latin america"],"provenance":"curated","key":"theRecord","heading":"What we have collected","status":"measured","basisNote":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting"},"ourAttention":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"insufficient_history","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":3477,"periods":{"state":"withheld","reason":"the event registry keeps mention counts per resolution window, not per day we observed them, so this card cannot date our attention by period; the resolution windows are served as resolutionWindows"},"key":"ourAttention","heading":"How closely we are watching","state":"cannot-measure","directionWord":"insufficient_history","glyph":""},"ourRead":{"key":"ourRead","heading":"Our read","basisNote":"our analysis of this record's own dated sections; ours, and labeled ours; we serve current state, not forecasts, and never a probability of ours","asOf":"2026-10-24","firstParty":{"state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"Not yet read for Oct 24, 2026: no first-party issuer is routed for this subject yet."},"corroboratedNow":{"state":"measured","count":0,"rowCount":2,"standingCounts":{"corroborated":0,"reported-by-2":0,"single-source":2,"contested":0,"cannot-check":0},"unit":"claim","unitMeaning":"claim: one claim on the maintained record (a cluster of reports of one statement), counted once and placed by the separate origins behind it","window":{"start":"2026-10-18","end":"2026-10-24"},"elsewhere":[{"where":"ourRead.singleSource and layers.consensus.standing.ladder","unit":null,"text":"The press archive's ladder counts events over every date in the archive, not this window; no ladder is on file for this record."},{"where":"each claim row's origin count (and get_corroborated)","unit":"separate origins behind one claim","text":"A claim's own report count (\"3 reports\", \"3 separate origins\") is the origins behind that ONE claim, never a count of claims."}],"scope":"In the current window (Oct 18, 2026 – Oct 24, 2026): 0 of 2 claims corroborated by three or more separate origins.","text":"Of 2 claims about Election: Brazil on the record in the current window (Oct 18, 2026 – Oct 24, 2026), 0 are corroborated by three or more separate origins, 0 are reported by two separate origins and 2 rest on a single source. The strongest: “Bolsonaro's lead over Lula narrows ahead Brazil runoff, Quaest poll shows” (single source; carried by 2 publishers from 2 separate origins · 1 wire (Reuters), earliest Oct 19, 2026); “Brazil accuses Milei of election-meddling for calling Lula ‘thief’ ahead of vote” (single source; carried by 1 publisher from 1 separate origin, earliest Oct 20, 2026). These count claims in this window; the press archive's ladder, in the single-source line of this read, counts events over the whole archive."},"singleSource":{"state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"Not yet read for Oct 24, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject yet."},"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","reading":"cannot-measure","pass":"the comparability pass","scope":"0 comparable pairs among 2 headline clusters on this record (1 pair judged: 1 without a shared typed actor and action class, 0 sharing them over different propositions)","rule":{"id":"claim-contradiction@1","digest":"9f52fa173ad5cc51","axes":["action-class","actor"],"overlap":0.5,"polarity":"denial markers only","negationMarkers":38},"input":{"kind":"headline-clusters","judged":2,"clearRows":2,"capped":0,"pairsJudged":1,"notComparable":{"typedAxes":1,"sameProposition":0}},"readingFrom":"record.reading","reason":"PASS FAILED: contradiction check - no polarity-comparable pair — no two claims on this record share a typed actor and action class over the same proposition, so no contradiction can be judged","comparablePairs":0,"rows":[],"asOf":"2026-10-24","text":"We could not judge whether claims on this record contradict each other: the pass that failed is the comparability pass. What this covers: 0 comparable pairs among 2 headline clusters on this record (1 pair judged: 1 without a shared typed actor and action class, 0 sharing them over different propositions). That is unknown, not none."},"disputed":{"state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the press-claims ledger","rule":null,"tally":null,"count":null,"text":"We could not count the reports that give a different answer for this build. Not yet read for Oct 24, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject."},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds no recorded change for Election: Brazil. We do not backfill history we did not record."},"divergence":{"state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the market sensor","text":"No priced market question on this record is open by its own deadline (6 passed their deadline and are historical capture, 0 carry no deadline on file), so there is no open price to set beside our claims."},"heldAsProvenance":{"state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."},"inputsDropped":[{"input":"single-source reporting","why":"no press-claims ledger exists for this subject; the corroborated feed does not publish uncleared tiers"},{"input":"entity priced captures","why":"our own sweep captured no priced row for this subject; the market rows here come from the event's venue receipts"},{"input":"6 market questions past their deadline","why":"kept as historical capture, never presented as current expectation"}],"synthesis":null,"synthesisNote":"No synthesis is written for this record. A synthesis is our own paragraph over corroborated claims with receipts; until it is computed, the clauses above are the whole read and nothing is templated to look like one.","basis":[{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Bolsonaro's lead over Lula narrows ahead Brazil runoff, Quaest poll shows","asOf":"2026-10-19"},{"kind":"corroborated claim","text":"Brazil accuses Milei of election-meddling for calling Lula ‘thief’ ahead of vote","asOf":"2026-10-20"}],"clauses":[{"key":"firstParty","label":"What the issuing authorities say","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the first-party read","text":"Not yet read for Oct 24, 2026: no first-party issuer is routed for this subject yet."},{"key":"corroboratedNow","label":"How well the claims are supported","state":"measured","count":0,"rowCount":2,"standingCounts":{"corroborated":0,"reported-by-2":0,"single-source":2,"contested":0,"cannot-check":0},"unit":"claim","unitMeaning":"claim: one claim on the maintained record (a cluster of reports of one statement), counted once and placed by the separate origins behind it","window":{"start":"2026-10-18","end":"2026-10-24"},"elsewhere":[{"where":"ourRead.singleSource and layers.consensus.standing.ladder","unit":null,"text":"The press archive's ladder counts events over every date in the archive, not this window; no ladder is on file for this record."},{"where":"each claim row's origin count (and get_corroborated)","unit":"separate origins behind one claim","text":"A claim's own report count (\"3 reports\", \"3 separate origins\") is the origins behind that ONE claim, never a count of claims."}],"scope":"In the current window (Oct 18, 2026 – Oct 24, 2026): 0 of 2 claims corroborated by three or more separate origins.","text":"Of 2 claims about Election: Brazil on the record in the current window (Oct 18, 2026 – Oct 24, 2026), 0 are corroborated by three or more separate origins, 0 are reported by two separate origins and 2 rest on a single source. The strongest: “Bolsonaro's lead over Lula narrows ahead Brazil runoff, Quaest poll shows” (single source; carried by 2 publishers from 2 separate origins · 1 wire (Reuters), earliest Oct 19, 2026); “Brazil accuses Milei of election-meddling for calling Lula ‘thief’ ahead of vote” (single source; carried by 1 publisher from 1 separate origin, earliest Oct 20, 2026). These count claims in this window; the press archive's ladder, in the single-source line of this read, counts events over the whole archive."},{"key":"singleSource","label":"What rests on one source","state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"Not yet read for Oct 24, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject yet."},{"key":"contradicted","label":"What contradicts","state":"cannot-measure","reading":"cannot-measure","pass":"the comparability pass","text":"We could not judge whether claims on this record contradict each other: the pass that failed is the comparability pass. What this covers: 0 comparable pairs among 2 headline clusters on this record (1 pair judged: 1 without a shared typed actor and action class, 0 sharing them over different propositions). That is unknown, not none."},{"key":"disputed","label":"Where reports give different numbers","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the press-claims ledger","text":"We could not count the reports that give a different answer for this build. Not yet read for Oct 24, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject."},{"key":"changedSinceLastRead","label":"What changed","state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds no recorded change for Election: Brazil. We do not backfill history we did not record."},{"key":"divergence","label":"The outside sensor, beside our record","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the market sensor","text":"No priced market question on this record is open by its own deadline (6 passed their deadline and are historical capture, 0 carry no deadline on file), so there is no open price to set beside our claims."},{"key":"heldAsProvenance","label":"Earlier documents on file","state":"cannot-measure","rows":[],"text":"No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"states":{"firstParty":"cannot-measure","corroboratedNow":"measured","singleSource":"cannot-measure","contradicted":"cannot-measure","disputed":"cannot-measure","changedSinceLastRead":"measured","divergence":"cannot-measure","heldAsProvenance":"cannot-measure"}},"changeLog":{"key":"changeLog","heading":"What changed, and when","state":"none-recorded","started":null,"note":"The ledger holds no recorded change for Election: Brazil. We do not backfill history we did not record.","transitions":[]},"verify":{"key":"verify","heading":"Verify it yourself","state":"measured","rest":"curl -s https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/record/election-brazil","mcp":"curl -s https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/mcp -X POST -H 'content-type: application/json' \\\n  -d '{\"jsonrpc\":\"2.0\",\"id\":1,\"method\":\"tools/call\",\"params\":{\"name\":\"get_topic_record\",\"arguments\":{\"subject\":\"election-brazil\"}}}'","resource":null,"page":null,"note":"This page, GET /api/record/election-brazil and the get_topic_record tool are assembled by one builder, so what you fetch is what you are reading."},"limits":{"key":"limits","heading":"What this record does not tell you","state":"measured","derived":[{"section":"refereeGrades","text":"How our cited sensor has scored: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the per-subject accuracy check. We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Election: Brazil has b"},{"section":"ourAttention","text":"How closely we are watching: we could not measure it."},{"section":"ourRead.firstParty","text":"What the issuing authorities say: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the first-party read. Not yet read for Oct 24, 2026: no first-party issuer is routed for this subject yet."},{"section":"ourRead.singleSource","text":"What rests on one source: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the single-source tier. Not yet read for Oct 24, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject yet."},{"section":"ourRead.contradicted","text":"What contradicts: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the comparability pass. We could not judge whether claims on this record contradict each other: the pass that failed is the comparability pass. What this covers: 0 comparable pairs among 2 headline clusters on this record (1 pair judged: 1 without a shared typed actor and action class, 0 sharing them over different propositions). That is unkn"},{"section":"ourRead.disputed","text":"Where reports give different numbers: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the press-claims ledger. We could not count the reports that give a different answer for this build. Not yet read for Oct 24, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject."},{"section":"ourRead.divergence","text":"The outside sensor, beside our record: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the market sensor. No priced market question on this record is open by its own deadline (6 passed their deadline and are historical capture, 0 carry no deadline on file), so there is no open price to set beside our claims."},{"section":"ourRead.heldAsProvenance","text":"Earlier documents on file: we could not measure it. No first-party issuer is routed for this subject, so there is nothing to hold as provenance."}],"standing":[],"note":"8 sections on this record came back \"we could not look\". Each is named below with the pass that failed, generated from the section's own state rather than typed here."},"provenance":{"key":"provenance","heading":"Where this record comes from","state":"measured","asOf":"2026-10-24","generatedAt":"2026-10-24T23:28:52.671179+00:00","recordVersion":"sb.tr-a14d58de","releaseId":null,"builtAt":null,"releaseState":"cannot-measure","releaseNote":"the release manifest is a deploy-time asset (/release.json), stamped on the served response, never bundled into the record at build time","slaRow":null,"slaNote":"No freshness clock is registered for this record's own inputs yet; the sections above each carry the date they speak for."},"stateScope":{"schema":"sb.state-scope.v1","state":"measured","statement":"Each row names a state this exhibit view and the embedded maintained record both describe, with the value and the as-of each side gives. Where they differ, `scope` says why. 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The record calls it `cannot-measure` and gives the reason in sectionStates.primaryDocuments.reason. 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The record joins 129 document(s) from 51 outlet(s) in the corpus.","whyTracked":"Registered in the publication registry, which is deny-by-default: a subject is served only once it is registered.","coverageSince":"2026-07-17","coverageSinceBasis":"first counted document (event-graph)","coverageSinceState":"measured","coverageSinceReason":null,"coverageSinceAlternates":[{"date":"2026-10-21","basis":"registered in the publication registry"}],"notCovered":["No probability of ours: this record reports what sources and markets say, and grades them. 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