{"schema":"sb.record.v1","schemaAliases":["sb.truth.v1"],"subject":"disaster-event-hurricane","title":"The Disaster: Hurricane record","tier":"standard","tierNote":"Standard-tier record, generated from the maintained event registry — WITH a first-party primary-source layer attached (layer 0 below names the issuing authorities and the exact documents this platform reads). Still standard, and here is the honest gap: no reporting-consensus ledger has been computed for this subject, and layer 0 is machine-fetched rather than backed by a hand-verified source-of-record audit like the full-tier records carry.","subjectBinding":{"entity":"hurricane","bound":true,"basis":"named-in-subject","statement":"Lead subject \"hurricane\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Disaster: Hurricane\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: alabama, hawaii, louisiana, mississippi, texas — the registry attaches them to this event, but the subject line does not name them.","candidatesConsidered":["alabama","hawaii","hurricane","louisiana","mississippi","texas"],"alsoDefensible":[],"rejected":["alabama","hawaii","louisiana","mississippi","texas"],"actionClass":"disaster"},"publishState":"published","publishStateNote":null,"asOf":"2026-10-24","currency":{"state":"not-current","asOf":"2026-10-09","basis":{"asOf":"2026-10-24","newestObservationAt":"2026-10-09","newestObservationBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","ageDays":15,"expectedCadenceDays":1,"cadenceBasis":"the fastest cadence declared by a readable registered primary source (1 day)","graceMultiple":1,"wallMultiple":3,"blindSources":[],"retiredAt":null,"recordState":"measured"},"sentence":"This record is no longer current: nothing new has been observed since 2026-10-09, 15 days ago, against its daily cadence — more than 3 times its usual gap.","layers":{"primarySources":{"key":"primarySources","label":"issuing-authority documents","asOf":"2026-10-24","asOfBasis":"the newest date a read primary document speaks for (NWS active tropical-cyclone watches and warnings)","computedAt":"2026-10-24","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""},"reportingCounts":{"key":"reportingCounts","label":"count of reporting we hold","asOf":"2026-10-09","asOfBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","computedAt":"2026-10-24T23:28:52.671179+00:00","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":15,"state":"behind","reason":"its data runs to 2026-10-09 (computed 2026-10-24), 15 days before this record's 2026-10-24 build, against an expected cadence of 1 day"},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","label":"market sensor","asOf":"2026-09-04","asOfBasis":"the oldest price seen on a question still open by its own deadline: the layer is as current as its weakest open price","computedAt":"2026-10-24","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":50,"note":"6 of 6 open question(s) carry an older price; each row states its own priceSeenAt","state":"behind","reason":"its oldest open price was seen 2026-09-04, 50 days before this record's 2026-10-24 build, against an expected cadence of 1 day; its newest was seen 2026-10-12"},"corroboration":{"key":"corroboration","label":"corroboration pass","asOf":"2026-10-24","asOfBasis":"the end of the corroboration engine's document window","computedAt":"2026-10-24T19:48:21.447777Z","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""}},"weakestLayer":"marketSensor","stateBasis":"the worse of the record's own verdict (newest observation against its cadence, blind primary sources, retirement) and the weakest layer's state: a layer behind or undatable makes a current record not reliably current"},"generatedAt":"2026-10-24T23:28:52.671179+00:00","tracked":true,"access":"Free — no key, no charge. Serves at GET /api/record/disaster-event-hurricane (earlier address /api/truth/disaster-event-hurricane, still answers) and answers the get_topic_record MCP tool. (No exhibit page for standard-tier records yet — the API and MCP responses ARE the record.)","attribution":"Cite 'Signal Bureau' with https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/record/disaster-event-hurricane so readers can verify.","layers":{"primarySources":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"observed","basis":"primary sources — the first-party issuing authorities for this subject, read from their own machine-readable feeds. A reader can fetch the same document and check this row against it.","verifiedAsOf":"2026-10-24","verificationNote":null,"freshness":{"sourcesTotal":3,"sourcesConfirmedLatestRun":3,"sourcesFailing":0,"latestConfirmedFetch":"2026-10-24","failingSince":null},"verificationMethod":"Automated fetch of each issuer's own machine-readable feed, on a runner with egress (scripts/refresh_hurricane_sources.py). NOT hand-verified: no human confirmed these values, so every row states its own read state and the record claims nothing beyond it. A source nobody fetched is a source nobody verified, and the row says WHICH silence it is — never fetched, fetched but unreadable, or read and quiet — rather than shipping a plausible value.","discipline":"Honest label, three states kept apart: NOT YET FETCHED (no run has touched this row — neither a reading nor a failure), READ (the issuer's own words, with the date they carry), and UNREADABLE (a run reached for it and could not read it, stated with the error). A stamp moves only on a confirmed fetch; nothing updates silently; and an issuer reporting NOTHING ACTIVE is a reading, not an absence — 'no active tropical cyclones' is the National Hurricane Center's answer, and it is recorded as one.","sourceOfRecord":"registry/verticals/weather-climate-record.yaml — the NOAA/NHC feeds this platform already scrapes. The production RSS feed audit (cross_domain/rss_health/latest.json, audit_ts 2026-08-17T10:16:26+00:00) reports that vertical 8 feeds total, 8 OK, 0 bad. That audit ran on a production runner against the live hosts and is the INDEPENDENT referee for reachability — independent precisely because it is not this record's own fetcher grading itself. Each row additionally carries its own fetchHealth, which is this record's first-party evidence.","tripwireNote":"This record deliberately carries NO content-signature tripwire pair. The Hormuz layer's pair works because UKMTO and NAVAREA IX change every few days: a change there is news. An NHC basin feed changes every six hours BY DESIGN — a signature alarm on it would be a clock, not an alarm, and alarm fatigue is the one failure a tripwire must never become. The meaningful transition for a hurricane record is a STATE flip (the basin going quiet→active or active→quiet), which is what stateTripwire watches instead.","stateTripwire":{"sources":["nhc-atlantic","nhc-epacific"],"note":"Alert when a watched basin's observedState flips between no-active-systems and active-advisories — the fact a reader of this record would want raised. A flip is only ever computed from two successful reads; a run that could not read a row reports it unreadable and flips nothing."},"automation":{"status":"operational","statement":"An automated daily fetch re-verifies each source; a stamp moves only on a confirmed fetch, and a watched source (NHC Atlantic tropical cyclone products / NHC Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone products) flipping operational state raises an alert for human review rather than silently refreshing — computed only from two successful reads, so a failed fetch can never publish a state change.","lastAttempt":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","lastSuccess":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","nextScheduledUtc":"09:16"},"sources":[{"id":"nhc-atlantic","name":"NHC Atlantic tropical cyclone products","issuer":"NOAA National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service — the issuing authority for Atlantic basin tropical cyclone advisories. There is no source upstream of this one.","tier":"primary","cadence":"full advisory packages at 03/09/15/21 UTC while a system is active, with intermediate advisories between them; the Tropical Weather Outlook every 6 hours year-round, in season and out","verifiedAsOf":"2026-10-24","observed":"No active tropical cyclones (2026-10-24) — Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 000 ABNT20 KNHC 240524 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Pierce/Gibbs","observedAsOf":"2026-10-24","links":[{"label":"issuer feed (RSS)","url":"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index-at.xml"}],"linkNote":"The basin INDEX feed, never a pinned advisory document. The Hormuz layer learned this the expensive way: its UKMTO row was pinned to update-073's own PDF, so re-fetching it daily proved a frozen file still existed and could never discover update 074. An index can discover the next advisory; a document cannot.","fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","lastChange":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","consecutiveFailures":0,"lastAttempt":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","lastError":null,"etag":"\"82e-65e92b18a89b3\"","lastModified":"Sat, 24 Oct 2026 09:26:37 GMT","signature":"sha256:68cd8ada7021cde0893b2c784dba602edb5bde8c3eda5e97e685bb91b0453d48","baselineEstablished":"2026-08-20T08:48:34+00:00"},"readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","lastReadRef":"No active tropical cyclones","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false,"lastUnreadAt":"2026-09-02T09:32:29+00:00"},"observedState":"no-active-systems","observedRef":"No active tropical cyclones","observedDate":"2026-10-24","observedReadAt":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","observedContentAgeDays":0,"readState":"read-nothing-active","readStateNote":"Read successfully, and what the issuing authority reports is that nothing is active. A measured zero from the issuer — not a gap in our record."},{"id":"nhc-epacific","name":"NHC Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone products","issuer":"NOAA National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service — the issuing authority for Eastern Pacific basin tropical cyclone advisories.","tier":"primary","cadence":"same package cadence as the Atlantic basin: 03/09/15/21 UTC while active, Tropical Weather Outlook every 6 hours year-round","verifiedAsOf":"2026-10-24","observed":"...VANCE HOLDING STEADY... (2026-10-24) — Hurricane Vance; max sustained winds 110 mph; min central pressure 965 mb; movement NNW at 7 mph; center 12.4, -102.8","observedAsOf":"2026-10-24","links":[{"label":"issuer feed (RSS)","url":"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index-ep.xml"}],"scopeNote":"The second basin NHC issues for, carried because this record's market questions are not Atlantic-only (Hawaii landfall, worldwide named-storm counts). The gap it does NOT close is stated rather than papered over: the CENTRAL Pacific basin is the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's, and neither feed here covers it — a Hawaii-landfall question is only partly served by this layer.","fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","lastChange":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","consecutiveFailures":0,"lastAttempt":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","lastError":null,"etag":"\"477f-65e92b18a89b2\"","lastModified":"Sat, 24 Oct 2026 09:26:37 GMT","signature":"sha256:8678695e053a66e6c57b17cd12c20c2e4b43de1cb1dfc1517689c516cf6a1166","baselineEstablished":"2026-08-20T08:48:34+00:00"},"readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","lastReadRef":"...VANCE HOLDING STEADY...","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false},"observedState":"active-advisories","observedRef":"...VANCE HOLDING STEADY...","observedDate":"2026-10-24","observedReadAt":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","observedContentAgeDays":0,"readState":"read","readStateNote":null},{"id":"nws-tropical-alerts","name":"NWS active tropical-cyclone watches and warnings","issuer":"NOAA National Weather Service — the issuing authority for United States hurricane, tropical-storm and storm-surge watches and warnings.","tier":"primary","cadence":"event-driven; the endpoint answers with whatever is active at the moment it is asked","verifiedAsOf":"2026-10-24","observed":"No active tropical-cyclone alerts (2026-10-24) — The National Weather Service active-alerts query for hurricane, tropical-storm and storm-surge watches and warnings returned no active alerts. An empty result from a query endpoint is an answer, not a failed read.","observedAsOf":"2026-10-24","links":[{"label":"issuer active-alerts query (Atom)","url":"https://api.weather.gov/alerts/active.atom?event=Hurricane%20Warning,Hurricane%20Watch,Tropical%20Storm%20Warning,Tropical%20Storm%20Watch,Storm%20Surge%20Warning,Storm%20Surge%20Watch"}],"scopeNote":"Answers a NARROWER question than the two basin feeds: what is under warning on US soil right now, not what is spinning in the ocean. Cited as corroboration of landfall-adjacent market questions, never as the basin state. Scope honesty: the production feed audit greened this same endpoint under a HEAT-event filter (registry/verticals/weather-climate-record.yaml), so the host and query shape are audit-proven; the tropical-cyclone event filter is OURS, so this row's own readHealth — not the audit — is what evidences it.","fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","lastChange":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","consecutiveFailures":0,"lastAttempt":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","lastError":null,"etag":"W/\"8bafc7463ff89df8fd5dd63018adbc0a\"","lastModified":null,"signature":"sha256:4305c73fc0c5cd9629b5d9dbf41fb42c7e8fef92f6360ec4efad535fb7417021","baselineEstablished":"2026-08-20T08:48:34+00:00"},"readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","lastReadRef":"No active tropical-cyclone alerts","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false,"lastUnreadAt":"2026-10-06T09:37:21+00:00","lastUnreadReason":{"branch":"not-fetched"}},"observedState":"no-active-systems","observedRef":"No active tropical-cyclone alerts","observedDate":"2026-10-24","observedReadAt":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","observedContentAgeDays":0,"readState":"read-nothing-active","readStateNote":"Read successfully, and what the issuing authority reports is that nothing is active. A measured zero from the issuer — not a gap in our record."}]},"reporting":{"label":"Observed reporting","basis":"attributed sources: outside coverage in our tracked set; verify at the source. Prediction-market question pages are excluded: a venue question is not journalism, whoever hosts it. Filtered for SUBJECT MEMBERSHIP, not just the subject's name: \"hurricane\" is the key its corpus was sampled on, so the name alone proves nothing about this event. Every row is judged by the platform's one membership gate (cross_domain.claim_subject_relevance.judge_membership) when the record's data is built, and only the rows it cleared are served; each names the gate's basis in relevance and the terms it found in eventTerms.","status":"observed","note":"Subject-membership filtered: 10 attributable rows sampled for \"hurricane\", 8 served, 2 withheld (2 judged off-subject, 0 the gate could not judge). The served count is reduced on purpose and reported, never quietly smaller.","sampledForSubject":10,"served":8,"withheldNotEventRelevant":2,"withheldOffSubject":2,"withheldUnmeasured":0,"membershipGate":"cross_domain.claim_subject_relevance.judge_membership","relevanceTerms":{"subjectLine":["hurricane"],"questionSet":["alabama"],"gate":"cross_domain.claim_subject_relevance.judge_membership"},"items":[{"title":"Hurricane Vance Graphics","url":"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_ep2+shtml/092247.shtml?cone","date":"2026-10-24","source":"NHC Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclone Advisories","eventTerms":["hurricane"],"relevance":"membership:participant-and-type","membership":"clear","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Bryan Norcross: Looking for the end of the 2026 hurricane season","url":"https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/bryan-norcross-looking-end-2026-hurricane-season","date":"2026-10-23","source":"Latest & Breaking News | Fox Weather","eventTerms":["hurricane"],"relevance":"membership:participant-and-type","membership":"clear","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Pensacola firefighters battle life-threatening blaze amid Hurricane Isaias’ extreme winds","url":"https://www.foxweather.com/extreme-weather/video-pensacola-firefighters-life-threatening-fire-hurricane-isaias","date":"2026-10-22","source":"Latest & Breaking News | Fox Weather","eventTerms":["hurricane"],"relevance":"membership:participant-and-type","membership":"clear","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Hurricane Vance to rapidly intensify into major hurricane, while Typhoon Champi threatens Taiwan and Japan","url":"https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news/tropical-storm-vance-forms-champi-churns-pacific","date":"2026-10-21","source":"Latest & Breaking News | Fox Weather","eventTerms":["hurricane"],"relevance":"membership:participant-and-type","membership":"clear","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"Comprehensive Technical Analysis of IRS Disaster Tax Relief for Hurricane Isaias in Alabama and Florida - Current Federal Tax Developments","url":"https://www.currentfederaltaxdevelopments.com/blog/2026/10/15/comprehensive-technical-analysis-of-irs-disaster-tax-relief-for-hurricane-isaias-in-alabama-and-florida","date":"2026-10-15","source":"IRS Treasury (Google News)","eventTerms":["alabama","hurricane"],"relevance":"membership:two-cues","membership":"clear","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"IRS grants Hurricane Isaias tax relief in Alabama, Florida","url":"https://www.journalofaccountancy.com/news/2026/oct/irs-grants-hurricane-isaias-tax-relief-in-alabama-florida/","date":"2026-10-15","source":"Journal of Accountancy","eventTerms":["alabama","hurricane"],"relevance":"membership:two-cues","membership":"clear","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"IRS grants Florida Hurricane Isaias victims tax relief, extends deadlines to Feb. 8, 2027 - wtwcfox","url":"https://fox49.tv/news/local/irs-grants-florida-hurricane-isaias-victims-tax-relief-extends-deadlines-to-feb-8-2027","date":"2026-10-14","source":"IRS Treasury (Google News)","eventTerms":["hurricane"],"relevance":"membership:participant-and-type","membership":"clear","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"},{"title":"IRS grants Alabama Hurricane Isaias victims tax relief, extends deadlines to Feb. 4, 2027 - WBMA","url":"https://abc3340.com/news/local/irs-grants-alabama-hurricane-isaias-victims-tax-relief-extends-deadlines-to-feb-4-2027-kay-ivey-montgomery","date":"2026-10-14","source":"Google News Tax Law","eventTerms":["alabama","hurricane"],"relevance":"membership:two-cues","membership":"clear","tier":"outlet","kind":"reporting — attributed; verify at the source"}]},"record":{"label":"The record itself","basis":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting","state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":1356,"outlets":383,"activeDays":7,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-10-09","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-05-24","end":"2026-10-09","activeDays":7,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 7 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":2890,"outlets":241,"activeDays":55,"since":"2026-07-16","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-10-24","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate","disaster"],"asserts":{"disaster":1449,"utterance":26,"military-action":11,"regulatory-approval":5,"sports-outcome":4,"launch-release":3},"assertsUnit":"headlines that name this subject in the headline itself, counted by the action class the headline asserts; a count of headlines, not of events, and not a finding that this subject performed the action","assertionCoverage":0.522,"movesWith":[{"name":"atlantic","together":669,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"storm surge","together":318,"sharedDomains":["disaster","extreme_weather","weather_climate"]},{"name":"national hurricane center","together":293,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate"]},{"name":"hurricane isaias","together":290,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate"]},{"name":"florida","together":443,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"atlantic hurricane season","together":232,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"gulf coast","together":213,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"mexico","together":458}],"movesWithLabels":["atlantic","storm surge","national hurricane center","hurricane isaias","florida","atlantic hurricane season","gulf coast","mexico"],"provenance":"curated"},"coverageMetric":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"insufficient_history","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":1211,"periods":{"state":"withheld","reason":"the event registry keeps mention counts per resolution window, not per day we observed them, so this card cannot date our attention by period; the resolution windows are served as resolutionWindows"}},"market":{"label":"Market expectation","basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred","rowsStatus":"none-captured","rowsNote":"Measured zero: no priced capture rides \"hurricane\" in this build.","current":[],"arc":[],"eventArc":{"name":"Disaster: Hurricane","slug":"disaster-event-hurricane","questionCount":24,"questions":["Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?","Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?","Will a hurricane make landfall in Texas by November 30, 2026?","Will a hurricane make landfall in Louisiana by November 30, 2026?","Will a hurricane make landfall in Mississippi by November 30, 2026?","Will a hurricane make landfall in Alabama by November 30, 2026?"],"mentions":1211,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-10-09","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null}},"judgment":{"label":"Our reading","basis":"derived judgment — our reading over the layers above; ours, and labeled ours","asOf":"2026-10-24","text":"A standard-tier record keeps its layers apart and does not collapse them. Lead subject \"hurricane\" — named in this record's own subject line (\"Disaster: Hurricane\"). The reporting, record, market and state-history layers below are that subject's own; none is borrowed from a neighbouring entity. Not bound: alabama, hawaii, louisiana, mississippi, texas — the registry attaches them to this event, but the subject line does not name them. Our coverage metric measures our attention; the reporting is attributed, not verified against first-party issuers; the market layer prices belief, not fact. Reading any single layer as \"the answer\" is how a machine gets this wrong — and this record's honest limit is stated in its tier: layer 0 carries 3 first-party issuers read from their own feeds, each stating the date it speaks for; the reporting-consensus ledger is what this record still lacks against a full-tier one."},"consensus":{"label":"Reporting consensus","basis":"retroactive claims ledger — kernel facts scored by independent-chain agreement","pending":true,"note":"No claims ledger has been computed for this subject yet — consensus scoring is full-tier machinery.","retired":[],"fold":{"state":"pending","lists":{"kernel":{"state":"pending","total":0,"returned":0,"statement":"pending: no consensus ledger has been computed for this subject yet, so there are no kernel rows to unfold."},"frames":{"state":"pending","total":0,"returned":0,"statement":"pending: no consensus ledger has been computed for this subject yet, so there are no frames rows to unfold."},"retired":{"state":"pending","total":0,"returned":0,"statement":"pending: no consensus ledger has been computed for this subject yet, so there are no retired rows to unfold."}},"limits":{"responseBudgetBytes":262144,"pageBytes":131072,"doorEnvelopeReserveBytes":131072,"exhibitBudgetBytes":131072,"defaultPageBytes":32768,"defaultPageSize":25,"maxPageSize":100,"defaultShown":{"kernel":25,"frames":5,"retired":5},"statement":"No default response carries the whole consensus ledger. Each list (kernel, frames, retired) is folded to its count and a first page of at most kernel 25 headline rows, frames 5, retired 5, each at most 32 KiB; the rows shown are then measured so the exhibit stays within its 128 KiB share, and a topic-record response stays under 256 KiB. The other 128 KiB is reserved for the door's own fields (the maintained record, scope, pointers), which the fold does not measure (pass: door-envelope); each fold states its measured fit under layers.consensus.fold.fit. Unfold a list a page at a time: pageSize 1-100 (default 25), and a page also stops at 128 KiB of rows, returning a cursor for the rest. A page limit is a cursor, never an edge: follow nextCursor until it is null and you hold every row, in the ledger's own order."}}},"stateHistory":{"label":"State history","basis":"recorded transitions — never edited after the fact","status":"recorded","note":null,"transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-10-13T15:59:48.730622+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-08T15:58:04.276991+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-10-13T15:59:48.730622+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-08T15:58:04.276991+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"rising","at":"2026-10-16T15:57:16.655058+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-13T15:59:48.730622+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-10-16T15:57:16.655058+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-13T15:59:48.730622+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-10-17T15:52:40.940749+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-16T15:57:16.655058+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-10-17T15:52:40.940749+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-16T15:57:16.655058+00:00"}]}},"sectionOrder":["definition","primaryDocuments","claims","theRecord","ourAttention","marketSensor","refereeGrades","ourRead","changeLog","limits","verify","provenance"],"definition":{"key":"definition","heading":"What this record is","state":"written","whatThisIs":"A rotating tropical storm with sustained winds above 74 mph; tracked for landfall, damage, and insurance losses.","whyTracked":"We hold 1356 documents from 383 outlets over 7 active days. It runs through 18 coverage domains we watch, including Extreme Weather, Weather Climate, India South Asia. 24 market questions price outcomes under the event bound to it.","coverageSince":{"date":"2026-05-24","status":"observed","text":"Our first document on this subject is dated May 24, 2026; the count above is everything since."},"notCovered":["Our attention, not the world's state. Every count here is a count of what our own sweep collected about hurricane.","383 outlets in our declared source universe — not the whole internet.","Market prices are the venue's number, cited and graded as an outside sensor. We publish no probability of our own on this record.","No claim on this subject in the current window was carried from three or more separate origins, so nothing below rests on one."],"tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"passed":["a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself","at least one market question bound to this record"],"failed":[],"cannotMeasure":["a claim carried from three or more separate origins"],"conditions":[{"id":"first-party-read","text":"a first-party issuer document read from the issuer itself","state":"clear","reason":null,"passed":true},{"id":"independent-origins","text":"a claim carried from three or more separate origins","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"PASS FAILED: the corroboration join - no measured claims section","passed":false},{"id":"bound-market-question","text":"at least one market question bound to this record","state":"clear","reason":null,"passed":true}]},"stateNote":"Written definition, from the curated orientation glossary."},"claims":{"key":"claims","heading":"What separate sources agree on","state":"cannot-measure","source":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these rows","window":{"start":"2026-10-18","end":"2026-10-24"},"counts":{"clustersTotal":1667,"corroborated":0,"published":60,"questionExcluded":12,"clustersWithAggregatorOrigin":0,"clustersWithClaimUrl":60,"originsWithReceiptUrl":429,"originsPublished":429,"recordRows":0,"singleSource":0,"reportedByTwo":0,"contested":0,"cannotCheck":0},"standingCounts":{"corroborated":0,"reported-by-2":0,"single-source":0,"contested":0,"cannot-check":0},"publishedTiers":["strong","moderate"],"dropped":0,"note":"The maintained record holds no claim rows for this subject in the current window. That is a count, not a gap.","singleSourceVisible":true,"rows":[]},"primaryDocuments":{"label":"Observed operational state","status":"observed","basis":"primary sources — the first-party issuing authorities for this subject, read from their own machine-readable feeds. A reader can fetch the same document and check this row against it.","verifiedAsOf":"2026-10-24","verificationNote":null,"freshness":{"sourcesTotal":3,"sourcesConfirmedLatestRun":3,"sourcesFailing":0,"latestConfirmedFetch":"2026-10-24","failingSince":null},"verificationMethod":"Automated fetch of each issuer's own machine-readable feed, on a runner with egress (scripts/refresh_hurricane_sources.py). NOT hand-verified: no human confirmed these values, so every row states its own read state and the record claims nothing beyond it. A source nobody fetched is a source nobody verified, and the row says WHICH silence it is — never fetched, fetched but unreadable, or read and quiet — rather than shipping a plausible value.","discipline":"Honest label, three states kept apart: NOT YET FETCHED (no run has touched this row — neither a reading nor a failure), READ (the issuer's own words, with the date they carry), and UNREADABLE (a run reached for it and could not read it, stated with the error). A stamp moves only on a confirmed fetch; nothing updates silently; and an issuer reporting NOTHING ACTIVE is a reading, not an absence — 'no active tropical cyclones' is the National Hurricane Center's answer, and it is recorded as one.","sourceOfRecord":"registry/verticals/weather-climate-record.yaml — the NOAA/NHC feeds this platform already scrapes. The production RSS feed audit (cross_domain/rss_health/latest.json, audit_ts 2026-08-17T10:16:26+00:00) reports that vertical 8 feeds total, 8 OK, 0 bad. That audit ran on a production runner against the live hosts and is the INDEPENDENT referee for reachability — independent precisely because it is not this record's own fetcher grading itself. Each row additionally carries its own fetchHealth, which is this record's first-party evidence.","tripwireNote":"This record deliberately carries NO content-signature tripwire pair. The Hormuz layer's pair works because UKMTO and NAVAREA IX change every few days: a change there is news. An NHC basin feed changes every six hours BY DESIGN — a signature alarm on it would be a clock, not an alarm, and alarm fatigue is the one failure a tripwire must never become. The meaningful transition for a hurricane record is a STATE flip (the basin going quiet→active or active→quiet), which is what stateTripwire watches instead.","stateTripwire":{"sources":["nhc-atlantic","nhc-epacific"],"note":"Alert when a watched basin's observedState flips between no-active-systems and active-advisories — the fact a reader of this record would want raised. A flip is only ever computed from two successful reads; a run that could not read a row reports it unreadable and flips nothing."},"automation":{"status":"operational","statement":"An automated daily fetch re-verifies each source; a stamp moves only on a confirmed fetch, and a watched source (NHC Atlantic tropical cyclone products / NHC Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone products) flipping operational state raises an alert for human review rather than silently refreshing — computed only from two successful reads, so a failed fetch can never publish a state change.","lastAttempt":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","lastSuccess":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","nextScheduledUtc":"09:16"},"sources":[{"id":"nhc-atlantic","name":"NHC Atlantic tropical cyclone products","issuer":"NOAA National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service — the issuing authority for Atlantic basin tropical cyclone advisories. There is no source upstream of this one.","tier":"primary","cadence":"full advisory packages at 03/09/15/21 UTC while a system is active, with intermediate advisories between them; the Tropical Weather Outlook every 6 hours year-round, in season and out","verifiedAsOf":"2026-10-24","observed":"No active tropical cyclones (2026-10-24) — Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook 000 ABNT20 KNHC 240524 TWOAT Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. $$ Forecaster Pierce/Gibbs","observedAsOf":"2026-10-24","links":[{"label":"issuer feed (RSS)","url":"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index-at.xml"}],"linkNote":"The basin INDEX feed, never a pinned advisory document. The Hormuz layer learned this the expensive way: its UKMTO row was pinned to update-073's own PDF, so re-fetching it daily proved a frozen file still existed and could never discover update 074. An index can discover the next advisory; a document cannot.","fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","lastChange":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","consecutiveFailures":0,"lastAttempt":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","lastError":null,"etag":"\"82e-65e92b18a89b3\"","lastModified":"Sat, 24 Oct 2026 09:26:37 GMT","signature":"sha256:68cd8ada7021cde0893b2c784dba602edb5bde8c3eda5e97e685bb91b0453d48","baselineEstablished":"2026-08-20T08:48:34+00:00"},"readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","lastReadRef":"No active tropical cyclones","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false,"lastUnreadAt":"2026-09-02T09:32:29+00:00"},"observedState":"no-active-systems","observedRef":"No active tropical cyclones","observedDate":"2026-10-24","observedReadAt":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","observedContentAgeDays":0,"readState":"read-nothing-active","readStateNote":"Read successfully, and what the issuing authority reports is that nothing is active. A measured zero from the issuer — not a gap in our record."},{"id":"nhc-epacific","name":"NHC Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone products","issuer":"NOAA National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service — the issuing authority for Eastern Pacific basin tropical cyclone advisories.","tier":"primary","cadence":"same package cadence as the Atlantic basin: 03/09/15/21 UTC while active, Tropical Weather Outlook every 6 hours year-round","verifiedAsOf":"2026-10-24","observed":"...VANCE HOLDING STEADY... (2026-10-24) — Hurricane Vance; max sustained winds 110 mph; min central pressure 965 mb; movement NNW at 7 mph; center 12.4, -102.8","observedAsOf":"2026-10-24","links":[{"label":"issuer feed (RSS)","url":"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index-ep.xml"}],"scopeNote":"The second basin NHC issues for, carried because this record's market questions are not Atlantic-only (Hawaii landfall, worldwide named-storm counts). The gap it does NOT close is stated rather than papered over: the CENTRAL Pacific basin is the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's, and neither feed here covers it — a Hawaii-landfall question is only partly served by this layer.","fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","lastChange":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","consecutiveFailures":0,"lastAttempt":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","lastError":null,"etag":"\"477f-65e92b18a89b2\"","lastModified":"Sat, 24 Oct 2026 09:26:37 GMT","signature":"sha256:8678695e053a66e6c57b17cd12c20c2e4b43de1cb1dfc1517689c516cf6a1166","baselineEstablished":"2026-08-20T08:48:34+00:00"},"readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","lastReadRef":"...VANCE HOLDING STEADY...","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false},"observedState":"active-advisories","observedRef":"...VANCE HOLDING STEADY...","observedDate":"2026-10-24","observedReadAt":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","observedContentAgeDays":0,"readState":"read","readStateNote":null},{"id":"nws-tropical-alerts","name":"NWS active tropical-cyclone watches and warnings","issuer":"NOAA National Weather Service — the issuing authority for United States hurricane, tropical-storm and storm-surge watches and warnings.","tier":"primary","cadence":"event-driven; the endpoint answers with whatever is active at the moment it is asked","verifiedAsOf":"2026-10-24","observed":"No active tropical-cyclone alerts (2026-10-24) — The National Weather Service active-alerts query for hurricane, tropical-storm and storm-surge watches and warnings returned no active alerts. An empty result from a query endpoint is an answer, not a failed read.","observedAsOf":"2026-10-24","links":[{"label":"issuer active-alerts query (Atom)","url":"https://api.weather.gov/alerts/active.atom?event=Hurricane%20Warning,Hurricane%20Watch,Tropical%20Storm%20Warning,Tropical%20Storm%20Watch,Storm%20Surge%20Warning,Storm%20Surge%20Watch"}],"scopeNote":"Answers a NARROWER question than the two basin feeds: what is under warning on US soil right now, not what is spinning in the ocean. Cited as corroboration of landfall-adjacent market questions, never as the basin state. Scope honesty: the production feed audit greened this same endpoint under a HEAT-event filter (registry/verticals/weather-climate-record.yaml), so the host and query shape are audit-proven; the tropical-cyclone event filter is OURS, so this row's own readHealth — not the audit — is what evidences it.","fetchHealth":{"lastSuccess":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","lastChange":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","consecutiveFailures":0,"lastAttempt":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","lastError":null,"etag":"W/\"8bafc7463ff89df8fd5dd63018adbc0a\"","lastModified":null,"signature":"sha256:4305c73fc0c5cd9629b5d9dbf41fb42c7e8fef92f6360ec4efad535fb7417021","baselineEstablished":"2026-08-20T08:48:34+00:00"},"readHealth":{"lastRead":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","lastReadRef":"No active tropical-cyclone alerts","consecutiveUnread":0,"neverRead":false,"lastUnreadAt":"2026-10-06T09:37:21+00:00","lastUnreadReason":{"branch":"not-fetched"}},"observedState":"no-active-systems","observedRef":"No active tropical-cyclone alerts","observedDate":"2026-10-24","observedReadAt":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00","observedContentAgeDays":0,"readState":"read-nothing-active","readStateNote":"Read successfully, and what the issuing authority reports is that nothing is active. A measured zero from the issuer — not a gap in our record."}],"key":"primaryDocuments","heading":"What the issuing authorities publish","undatedCount":0,"undatedNote":null},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","heading":"What prediction markets price","state":"priced","joinPerformed":true,"eventSlug":"disaster-event-hurricane","rowsFrom":"maintained-record","counts":{"eventReceipts":6,"entityCaptures":0,"served":6,"live":6,"expired":0,"undated":0},"newestPriceStamp":"2026-10-12","live":{"count":6,"priceAsOf":"2026-10-12","questions":["Will a hurricane make landfall in Texas by November 30, 2026?","Will a hurricane make landfall in Mississippi by November 30, 2026?","Will a hurricane make landfall in Louisiana by November 30, 2026?","Will a hurricane make landfall in Alabama by November 30, 2026?","Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?","Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?"]},"historical":{"count":0,"questions":[]},"undated":{"count":0,"questions":[]},"deadlineCheckedAgainst":"2026-10-25","reading":"6 of 6 market question(s) on this record are still open by their own deadline (checked against 2026-10-25; newest live price seen 2026-10-12). Prices are a sensor we cite and grade, never a probability of ours.","venueStatusNote":null,"note":"6 market questions ride this record, newest price stamp Oct 12, 2026. A price is the venue's number, cited as one outside sensor and graded against how reality resolved; it is never a probability of ours.","rows":[{"question":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Texas by November 30, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-texas-by-november-30-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":4.5,"pricedAt":"2026-10-12","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-08","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Mississippi by November 30, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-mississippi-by-november-30-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":4.2,"pricedAt":"2026-10-12","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-08","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Louisiana by November 30, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-louisiana-by-november-30-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":4,"pricedAt":"2026-10-12","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-08","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Alabama by November 30, 2026?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-alabama-by-november-30-2026","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":4.5,"pricedAt":"2026-10-12","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-08","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-hawaii-before-2027-20260721182828397","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":12,"pricedAt":"2026-10-09","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"},{"question":"Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-category-5-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-before-2027","source":"polymarket","probabilityPct":5.9,"pricedAt":"2026-09-04","capturedAt":null,"deadline":"2027-01-01","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question","deadlineState":"live","deadlinePassed":false,"venueStatus":"live","origin":"event-receipt","reading":"belief, not fact"}],"basis":"attributed — markets price collective belief about defined outcomes; belief, not fact, and never proof that an event occurred"},"refereeGrades":{"key":"refereeGrades","heading":"How our cited sensor has scored","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the per-subject accuracy check","grades":[],"note":"We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Disaster: Hurricane has been scored, so this section can say nothing about it on its own. The scoring anyone can read is at https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/calibration-data.","where":"https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/calibration-data"},"theRecord":{"label":"The record itself","basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 7 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"],"state":"measured","reason":"","countsSource":"sb.truth-record.v1 — the maintained record is the one producer of these counts","countsBasis":"event-graph","documents":1356,"outlets":383,"activeDays":7,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","firstSeenStatus":"observed","firstSeenNote":null,"lastSeen":"2026-10-09","lastSeenStatus":"observed","lastSeenNote":null,"coverage":{"start":"2026-05-24","end":"2026-10-09","activeDays":7,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 7 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"archive":{"scope":"cumulative entity graph since first observation — every document this subject has ever appeared in, not the maintained record's window","documents":2890,"outlets":241,"activeDays":55,"since":"2026-07-16","sinceStatus":"observed","lastSeen":"2026-10-24","lastSeenStatus":"observed","stampNote":null},"homeDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate","disaster"],"asserts":{"disaster":1449,"utterance":26,"military-action":11,"regulatory-approval":5,"sports-outcome":4,"launch-release":3},"assertsUnit":"headlines that name this subject in the headline itself, counted by the action class the headline asserts; a count of headlines, not of events, and not a finding that this subject performed the action","assertionCoverage":0.522,"movesWith":[{"name":"atlantic","together":669,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"storm surge","together":318,"sharedDomains":["disaster","extreme_weather","weather_climate"]},{"name":"national hurricane center","together":293,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate"]},{"name":"hurricane isaias","together":290,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather","weather_climate"]},{"name":"florida","together":443,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"atlantic hurricane season","together":232,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"gulf coast","together":213,"sharedDomains":["extreme_weather"]},{"name":"mexico","together":458}],"movesWithLabels":["atlantic","storm surge","national hurricane center","hurricane isaias","florida","atlantic hurricane season","gulf coast","mexico"],"provenance":"curated","key":"theRecord","heading":"What we have collected","status":"measured","basisNote":"our own count of documents we ingested and can name — not a claim about the world, and market questions are excluded because a question is not reporting"},"ourAttention":{"label":"Coverage state","basis":"our own measurement — our attention, not the event's state","direction":"insufficient_history","baselineRelativePct":null,"reading":"History still too thin for a baseline; day-over-day read.","trackedDays":null,"eventMentions":1211,"periods":{"state":"withheld","reason":"the event registry keeps mention counts per resolution window, not per day we observed them, so this card cannot date our attention by period; the resolution windows are served as resolutionWindows"},"key":"ourAttention","heading":"How closely we are watching","state":"cannot-measure","directionWord":"insufficient_history","glyph":""},"ourRead":{"key":"ourRead","heading":"Our read","basisNote":"our analysis of this record's own dated sections; ours, and labeled ours; we serve current state, not forecasts, and never a probability of ours","asOf":"2026-10-24","firstParty":{"state":"measured","text":"NHC Atlantic tropical cyclone products reports No active tropical cyclones, dated 2026-10-24; NHC Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone products reports ...VANCE HOLDING STEADY..., dated 2026-10-24; NWS active tropical-cyclone watches and warnings reports No active tropical-cyclone alerts, dated 2026-10-24. Read from the issuer Oct 24, 2026."},"corroboratedNow":{"state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the corroboration join","text":"The maintained record holds no claim rows for this subject in the current window. That is a count, not a gap."},"singleSource":{"state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"Not yet read for Oct 24, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject yet."},"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","reading":"cannot-measure","pass":"the claim rows","scope":"no pair to judge: 0 headline clusters on this record","rule":{"id":"claim-contradiction@1","digest":"9f52fa173ad5cc51","axes":["action-class","actor"],"overlap":0.5,"polarity":"denial markers only","negationMarkers":38},"input":{"kind":"headline-clusters","judged":0,"clearRows":0,"capped":0,"pairsJudged":0,"notComparable":{"typedAxes":0,"sameProposition":0}},"readingFrom":"record.reading","reason":"PASS FAILED: contradiction check - no polarity-comparable pair — this record carries no claims","comparablePairs":0,"rows":[],"asOf":"2026-10-24","text":"We could not judge whether claims on this record contradict each other: the pass that failed is the claim rows. What this covers: no pair to judge: 0 headline clusters on this record. That is unknown, not none."},"disputed":{"state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the press-claims ledger","rule":null,"tally":null,"count":null,"text":"We could not count the reports that give a different answer for this build. Not yet read for Oct 24, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject."},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 6 recorded changes for Disaster: Hurricane, the most recent on Oct 17, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},"divergence":{"state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the corroborated set","text":"Not yet read for Oct 24, 2026: our side of the comparison is not on file, so the venue's price stands alone in the market section."},"heldAsProvenance":{"state":"none-held","rows":[],"text":"Every first-party document on this record is inside the 30-day window; nothing is held back as provenance."},"inputsDropped":[{"input":"single-source reporting","why":"no press-claims ledger exists for this subject; the corroborated feed does not publish uncleared tiers"},{"input":"entity priced captures","why":"our own sweep captured no priced row for this subject; the market rows here come from the event's venue receipts"}],"synthesis":null,"synthesisNote":"No synthesis is written for this record. A synthesis is our own paragraph over corroborated claims with receipts; until it is computed, the clauses above are the whole read and nothing is templated to look like one.","basis":[{"kind":"first-party document","text":"NHC Atlantic tropical cyclone products: No active tropical cyclones","asOf":"2026-10-24","asOfReason":null,"readAt":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00"},{"kind":"first-party document","text":"NHC Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone products: ...VANCE HOLDING STEADY...","asOf":"2026-10-24","asOfReason":null,"readAt":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00"},{"kind":"first-party document","text":"NWS active tropical-cyclone watches and warnings: No active tropical-cyclone alerts","asOf":"2026-10-24","asOfReason":null,"readAt":"2026-10-24T09:29:02+00:00"},{"kind":"market sensor","text":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Texas by November 30, 2026?: 4.5% (polymarket)","asOf":"2026-10-12"}],"clauses":[{"key":"firstParty","label":"What the issuing authorities say","state":"measured","text":"NHC Atlantic tropical cyclone products reports No active tropical cyclones, dated 2026-10-24; NHC Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone products reports ...VANCE HOLDING STEADY..., dated 2026-10-24; NWS active tropical-cyclone watches and warnings reports No active tropical-cyclone alerts, dated 2026-10-24. Read from the issuer Oct 24, 2026."},{"key":"corroboratedNow","label":"How well the claims are supported","state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the corroboration join","text":"The maintained record holds no claim rows for this subject in the current window. That is a count, not a gap."},{"key":"singleSource","label":"What rests on one source","state":"cannot-measure","count":null,"pass":"the single-source tier","text":"Not yet read for Oct 24, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject yet."},{"key":"contradicted","label":"What contradicts","state":"cannot-measure","reading":"cannot-measure","pass":"the claim rows","text":"We could not judge whether claims on this record contradict each other: the pass that failed is the claim rows. What this covers: no pair to judge: 0 headline clusters on this record. That is unknown, not none."},{"key":"disputed","label":"Where reports give different numbers","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the press-claims ledger","text":"We could not count the reports that give a different answer for this build. Not yet read for Oct 24, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject."},{"key":"changedSinceLastRead","label":"What changed","state":"measured","text":"The ledger holds 6 recorded changes for Disaster: Hurricane, the most recent on Oct 17, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact. We do not yet diff against a previously published copy of this record; what stands is the ledger's own dated transitions."},{"key":"divergence","label":"The outside sensor, beside our record","state":"cannot-measure","pass":"the corroborated set","text":"Not yet read for Oct 24, 2026: our side of the comparison is not on file, so the venue's price stands alone in the market section."},{"key":"heldAsProvenance","label":"Earlier documents on file","state":"none-held","rows":[],"text":"Every first-party document on this record is inside the 30-day window; nothing is held back as provenance."}],"states":{"firstParty":"measured","corroboratedNow":"cannot-measure","singleSource":"cannot-measure","contradicted":"cannot-measure","disputed":"cannot-measure","changedSinceLastRead":"measured","divergence":"cannot-measure","heldAsProvenance":"none-held"}},"changeLog":{"key":"changeLog","heading":"What changed, and when","state":"recorded","started":null,"note":"The ledger holds 6 recorded changes for Disaster: Hurricane, the most recent on Oct 17, 2026. Each one is a change in how closely we are watching, written the moment we observed it, never backfilled and never edited after the fact.","transitions":[{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-10-13T15:59:48.730622+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-08T15:58:04.276991+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-10-13T15:59:48.730622+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-08T15:58:04.276991+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"insufficient_history","to":"rising","at":"2026-10-16T15:57:16.655058+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-13T15:59:48.730622+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"watch","to":"flagged","at":"2026-10-16T15:57:16.655058+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-13T15:59:48.730622+00:00"},{"field":"coverage state","from":"rising","to":"insufficient_history","at":"2026-10-17T15:52:40.940749+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-16T15:57:16.655058+00:00"},{"field":"wire tier","from":"flagged","to":"watch","at":"2026-10-17T15:52:40.940749+00:00","heldSince":"2026-10-16T15:57:16.655058+00:00"}]},"verify":{"key":"verify","heading":"Verify it yourself","state":"measured","rest":"curl -s https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/record/disaster-event-hurricane","mcp":"curl -s https://api.signalbureau.ai/api/mcp -X POST -H 'content-type: application/json' \\\n  -d '{\"jsonrpc\":\"2.0\",\"id\":1,\"method\":\"tools/call\",\"params\":{\"name\":\"get_topic_record\",\"arguments\":{\"subject\":\"disaster-event-hurricane\"}}}'","resource":null,"page":null,"note":"This page, GET /api/record/disaster-event-hurricane and the get_topic_record tool are assembled by one builder, so what you fetch is what you are reading."},"limits":{"key":"limits","heading":"What this record does not tell you","state":"measured","derived":[{"section":"claims","text":"What separate sources agree on: we could not measure it. The maintained record holds no claim rows for this subject in the current window. That is a count, not a gap."},{"section":"refereeGrades","text":"How our cited sensor has scored: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the per-subject accuracy check. We publish no probability of our own, so there is none of ours to score. What gets scored is the prediction-market prices we cite: each is checked against how that question actually resolved, and the checking runs across every subject at once rather than one subject at a time. Nothing specific to Disaster: Hurricane ha"},{"section":"ourAttention","text":"How closely we are watching: we could not measure it."},{"section":"ourRead.corroboratedNow","text":"How well the claims are supported: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the corroboration join. The maintained record holds no claim rows for this subject in the current window. That is a count, not a gap."},{"section":"ourRead.singleSource","text":"What rests on one source: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the single-source tier. Not yet read for Oct 24, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject yet."},{"section":"ourRead.contradicted","text":"What contradicts: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the claim rows. We could not judge whether claims on this record contradict each other: the pass that failed is the claim rows. What this covers: no pair to judge: 0 headline clusters on this record. That is unknown, not none."},{"section":"ourRead.disputed","text":"Where reports give different numbers: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the press-claims ledger. We could not count the reports that give a different answer for this build. Not yet read for Oct 24, 2026: no press-claims ledger is on file for this subject."},{"section":"ourRead.divergence","text":"The outside sensor, beside our record: we could not measure it — the pass that failed is the corroborated set. Not yet read for Oct 24, 2026: our side of the comparison is not on file, so the venue's price stands alone in the market section."}],"standing":[],"note":"8 sections on this record came back \"we could not look\". Each is named below with the pass that failed, generated from the section's own state rather than typed here."},"provenance":{"key":"provenance","heading":"Where this record comes from","state":"measured","asOf":"2026-10-24","generatedAt":"2026-10-24T23:28:52.671179+00:00","recordVersion":"sb.tr-5f5a6b6c","releaseId":null,"builtAt":null,"releaseState":"cannot-measure","releaseNote":"the release manifest is a deploy-time asset (/release.json), stamped on the served response, never bundled into the record at build time","slaRow":null,"slaNote":"No freshness clock is registered for this record's own inputs yet; the sections above each carry the date they speak for."},"stateScope":{"schema":"sb.state-scope.v1","state":"measured","statement":"Each row names a state this exhibit view and the embedded maintained record both describe, with the value and the as-of each side gives. Where they differ, `scope` says why. Values are never reconciled, so a difference is shown as it is.","exhibitAsOf":"2026-10-24","recordAsOf":"2026-10-24","recordGeneratedAt":"2026-10-24T23:33:15.641441+00:00","recordVersion":"1d3c3778e96b9625","fields":[{"field":"currency.state","agree":true,"exhibit":{"path":"currency.state","value":"not-current","word":"not-current","asOf":"2026-10-09"},"record":{"path":"record.currency.state","value":"not-current","word":"not-current","asOf":"2026-10-09"},"scope":null},{"field":"primarySources.availability","agree":true,"exhibit":{"path":"layers.primarySources.status","value":"available","word":"observed","asOf":"2026-10-24"},"record":{"path":"record.currency.layers.primarySources.state","value":"available","word":"current","asOf":"2026-10-24"},"scope":null},{"field":"consensus.availability","agree":true,"exhibit":{"path":"layers.consensus","value":"not-computed","word":"pending","asOf":null},"record":{"path":"record.currency.layers.consensusLedger","value":"not-computed","word":"no-ledger-layer","asOf":null},"scope":null},{"field":"refereeGrades.state","agree":false,"exhibit":{"path":"refereeGrades.state","value":"cannot-measure","word":"cannot-measure","asOf":null},"record":{"path":"record.sectionStates.refereeGrades.state","value":"never-published-on","word":"never-published-on","asOf":null},"scope":{"kind":"different-question","exhibit":"per-subject grades of the market prices we cite: the grading runs across every subject at once, so no grade for one subject exists to read","record":"the referee ledger's per-subject count of tracked probabilities and how many have been graded (the record's refereeGradesMeta.counts)","why":"The two answer different questions, and both say no grade exists for this subject. The record counts tracked rows and finds none graded; the exhibit says no per-subject grade can be read. Neither is restated as the other."}},{"field":"ourRead.contradicted.reading","agree":true,"exhibit":{"path":"ourRead.contradicted.reading","value":"cannot-measure","word":"cannot-measure","asOf":"2026-10-24"},"record":{"path":"record.ourRead.contradicted.reading","value":"cannot-measure","word":"cannot-measure","asOf":"2026-10-24"},"scope":null}],"unlabelled":0,"parityGate":"web/signal-bureau/scripts/check_state_scope_parity.mjs fails the build when a row differs with no scope."},"record":{"schema":"sb.truth-record.v1","slug":"disaster-event-hurricane","kind":"event","subjectState":"dormant","tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"computed":"standard","served":"standard","passed":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read","at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":["at least 3 separate origins on a joined claim"],"cannotMeasure":["no unresolved contradiction on the record"],"conditions":[{"id":"first-party-read","text":"a registered primary-source row with a real last read","state":"clear","reason":null,"passed":true},{"id":"independent-origins","text":"at least 3 separate origins on a joined claim","state":"breach","reason":"Corroboration join ran and returned no claim for this subject","passed":false},{"id":"no-open-contradiction","text":"no unresolved contradiction on the record","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"PASS FAILED: contradiction check - no polarity-comparable pair — this record carries no claims","passed":false},{"id":"corroborated-or-bound-market","text":"at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question","state":"clear","reason":null,"passed":true}],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"tierChangedAt":"2026-10-02","previousTier":"standard","subject":{"label":"Disaster: Hurricane","aliases":["alabama","disaster-event-hurricane","disaster: hurricane","hawaii","hurricane","louisiana","mississippi","texas"],"eventKey":"disaster-event-hurricane","entityKeys":["alabama","disaster-event-hurricane","disaster: hurricane","hawaii","hurricane","louisiana","mississippi","texas"],"mergedSlugs":[],"eventSlugs":["disaster-event-hurricane"]},"definition":{"whatThisIs":"Disaster: Hurricane is an event Signal Bureau maintains a record of (disaster). The record joins 1356 document(s) from 383 outlet(s) in the corpus.","whyTracked":"Registered in the publication registry, which is deny-by-default: a subject is served only once it is registered.","coverageSince":"2026-05-24","coverageSinceBasis":"first counted document (event-graph)","coverageSinceState":"measured","coverageSinceReason":null,"coverageSinceAlternates":[{"date":"2026-07-16","basis":"registered in the publication registry"}],"notCovered":["No probability of ours: this record reports what sources and markets say, and grades them. We serve current state, not forecasts.","The calibration referee has graded nothing on this subject, so no accuracy record is shown."],"tier":"standard","tierBasis":{"computed":"standard","served":"standard","passed":["a registered primary-source row with a real last read","at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question"],"failed":["at least 3 separate origins on a joined claim"],"cannotMeasure":["no unresolved contradiction on the record"],"conditions":[{"id":"first-party-read","text":"a registered primary-source row with a real last read","state":"clear","reason":null,"passed":true},{"id":"independent-origins","text":"at least 3 separate origins on a joined claim","state":"breach","reason":"Corroboration join ran and returned no claim for this subject","passed":false},{"id":"no-open-contradiction","text":"no unresolved contradiction on the record","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"PASS FAILED: contradiction check - no polarity-comparable pair — this record carries no claims","passed":false},{"id":"corroborated-or-bound-market","text":"at least one corroborated cluster or a bound market question","state":"clear","reason":null,"passed":true}],"step":"one step or none — served as computed"},"state":"templated-from-structure","reason":""},"claims":[],"primaryDocuments":[{"id":"nhc-atlantic","name":"NHC Atlantic tropical cyclone products","issuer":"NOAA National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service — the issuing authority for Atlantic basin tropical cyclone advisories. There is no source upstream of this one.","tier":"primary","cadence":"full advisory packages at 03/09/15/21 UTC while a system is active, with intermediate advisories between them; the Tropical Weather Outlook every 6 hours year-round, in season and out","speaksFor":"2026-10-24","contentAgeDays":0,"lastReadAt":"2026-10-24","url":"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index-at.xml","state":"read","note":""},{"id":"nhc-epacific","name":"NHC Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone products","issuer":"NOAA National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service — the issuing authority for Eastern Pacific basin tropical cyclone advisories.","tier":"primary","cadence":"same package cadence as the Atlantic basin: 03/09/15/21 UTC while active, Tropical Weather Outlook every 6 hours year-round","speaksFor":"2026-10-24","contentAgeDays":0,"lastReadAt":"2026-10-24","url":"https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index-ep.xml","state":"read","note":""},{"id":"nws-tropical-alerts","name":"NWS active tropical-cyclone watches and warnings","issuer":"NOAA National Weather Service — the issuing authority for United States hurricane, tropical-storm and storm-surge watches and warnings.","tier":"primary","cadence":"event-driven; the endpoint answers with whatever is active at the moment it is asked","speaksFor":"2026-10-24","contentAgeDays":0,"lastReadAt":"2026-10-24","url":"https://api.weather.gov/alerts/active.atom?event=Hurricane%20Warning,Hurricane%20Watch,Tropical%20Storm%20Warning,Tropical%20Storm%20Watch,Storm%20Surge%20Warning,Storm%20Surge%20Watch","state":"read","note":""}],"marketSensor":{"state":"priced","reason":"","questions":[{"question":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Texas by November 30, 2026?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-texas-by-november-30-2026","pricePct":4.5,"priceSeenAt":"2026-10-12","endDate":"2026-12-08","venueStatus":"live","boundVia":"event:disaster-event-hurricane","deadline":"2026-12-08","deadlineState":"live","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question"},{"question":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Mississippi by November 30, 2026?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-mississippi-by-november-30-2026","pricePct":4.2,"priceSeenAt":"2026-10-12","endDate":"2026-12-08","venueStatus":"live","boundVia":"event:disaster-event-hurricane","deadline":"2026-12-08","deadlineState":"live","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question"},{"question":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Louisiana by November 30, 2026?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-louisiana-by-november-30-2026","pricePct":4,"priceSeenAt":"2026-10-12","endDate":"2026-12-08","venueStatus":"live","boundVia":"event:disaster-event-hurricane","deadline":"2026-12-08","deadlineState":"live","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question"},{"question":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Alabama by November 30, 2026?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-alabama-by-november-30-2026","pricePct":4.5,"priceSeenAt":"2026-10-12","endDate":"2026-12-08","venueStatus":"live","boundVia":"event:disaster-event-hurricane","deadline":"2026-12-08","deadlineState":"live","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question"},{"question":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-hawaii-before-2027-20260721182828397","pricePct":12,"priceSeenAt":"2026-10-09","endDate":"2026-12-31","venueStatus":"live","boundVia":"event:disaster-event-hurricane","deadline":"2026-12-31","deadlineState":"live","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question"},{"question":"Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?","venue":"polymarket","url":"https://polymarket.com/market/will-any-category-5-hurricane-make-landfall-in-the-us-in-before-2027","pricePct":5.9,"priceSeenAt":"2026-09-04","endDate":"2027-01-01","venueStatus":"live","boundVia":"event:disaster-event-hurricane","deadline":"2027-01-01","deadlineState":"live","deadlineBasis":"the venue's own end date for the question"}],"venue":"polymarket","priceAsOf":"2026-10-12","dropped":0,"live":{"count":6,"priceAsOf":"2026-10-12","questions":["Will a hurricane make landfall in Texas by November 30, 2026?","Will a hurricane make landfall in Mississippi by November 30, 2026?","Will a hurricane make landfall in Louisiana by November 30, 2026?","Will a hurricane make landfall in Alabama by November 30, 2026?","Will a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii before 2027?","Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?"]},"historical":{"count":0,"questions":[]},"undated":{"count":0,"questions":[]},"deadlineCheckedAgainst":"2026-10-24","reading":"6 of 6 market question(s) on this record are still open by their own deadline (checked against 2026-10-24; newest live price seen 2026-10-12). Prices are a sensor we cite and grade, never a probability of ours.","note":"prices are a sensor we cite and grade, never a probability of ours (docs/decisions/20260817 Not a Forecasting Shop)"},"refereeGrades":[],"theRecord":{"state":"measured","reason":"","documents":1356,"outlets":383,"activeDays":7,"firstSeen":"2026-05-24","lastSeen":"2026-10-09","assertionMix":{"disaster":1304,"utterance":16,"military-action":10,"regulatory-approval":5,"launch-release":3,"legal-ruling":2},"countsBasis":"event-graph","receiptsOnRecord":18,"withheldFutureDated":0,"droppedInputs":3,"basis":["documents, outlets and the assertion mix are the event graph's corpus-wide counts for this event","active days is a FLOOR — the 7 distinct receipt date(s) on this record, not a full series"]},"ourAttention":{"state":"cannot-measure","level":null,"direction":"unknown","reason":"no attention series carries this subject — the entity-trends shard does not index it, so our own attention is UNKNOWN, not zero"},"ourRead":{"state":"measured","reason":"","corroboratedNow":[],"corroboratedCount":0,"reportedByTwo":[],"reportedByTwoCount":0,"singleSource":[],"singleSourceCount":0,"cannotCheckCount":0,"countsIn":{"unit":"claim","unitMeaning":"claim: one claim on the maintained record (a cluster of reports of one statement), counted once and placed by the separate origins behind it","window":{"start":"2026-10-18","end":"2026-10-24"},"counts":["corroboratedCount","reportedByTwoCount","singleSourceCount","cannotCheckCount"]},"contradicted":{"state":"cannot-measure","items":[],"comparablePairs":0,"reason":"no polarity-comparable pair — this record carries no claims","reading":"cannot-measure","pass":"the claim rows","scope":"no pair to judge: 0 headline clusters on this record","rule":{"id":"claim-contradiction@1","digest":"9f52fa173ad5cc51","axes":["action-class","actor"],"overlap":0.5,"polarity":"denial markers only","negationMarkers":38},"input":{"kind":"headline-clusters","judged":0,"clearRows":0,"capped":0,"pairsJudged":0,"notComparable":{"typedAxes":0,"sameProposition":0}}},"changedSinceLastRead":{"state":"measured","reason":"","added":[],"removed":[],"tierMoves":[],"against":"2026-10-24"},"divergence":{"state":"measured","reason":"","sensor":{"question":"Will a hurricane make landfall in Texas by November 30, 2026?","pricePct":4.5,"venue":"polymarket","seenAt":"2026-10-12","deadline":"2026-12-08","collection":"live"},"corroboratedClaims":0,"text":"The crowd prices “Will a hurricane make landfall in Texas by November 30, 2026?” at 4.5% on polymarket (seen 2026-10-12), beside 0 claim(s) on this record carried from 3 or more separate origins. The price is a sensor we cite and grade, not a probability of ours."},"heldAsProvenance":[],"inputsDropped":[{"reason":"receipt hygiene dropped the row: it carries no title or no URL at all","title":"Will Hurricane Isaias be the last disaster recovery funded by FEMA?"},{"reason":"receipt hygiene dropped the row: it carries no title or no URL at all","title":"Vance to become 11th major eastern Pacific hurricane this season. Will it turn toward Mexico?"},{"reason":"receipt hygiene dropped the row: it carries no title or no URL at all","title":"Subtropical Storm Josephine forms off U.S. East Coast, forecast to become a hurricane-force extratropical cyclone - The "}],"synthesis":null,"synthesisState":"withheld-by-design — synthesis runs only at full tier behind the coherence and no-advice gates, which this builder does not run","basis":[{"artifact":"cross_domain/analysis/whats_true_latest.json","used":"claims, tiers, publisher and origin counts","state":"read"},{"artifact":"web/signal-bureau/lib/event_market_receipts.json","used":"market sensor (event side)","state":"priced"},{"artifact":"web/signal-bureau/lib/corpus_evidence.json","used":"receipts and priced captures (entity side)","state":"read"},{"artifact":"web/signal-bureau/lib/hurricane_primary_sources.json","used":"primary documents","state":"measured"}]},"sectionStates":{"definition":{"state":"templated-from-structure","reason":""},"claims":{"state":"no-cluster-joined","reason":""},"primaryDocuments":{"state":"measured","reason":""},"marketSensor":{"state":"priced","reason":""},"refereeGrades":{"state":"never-published-on","reason":""},"theRecord":{"state":"measured","reason":""},"ourAttention":{"state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no attention series carries this subject — the entity-trends shard does not index it, so our own attention is UNKNOWN, not zero"},"ourRead":{"state":"measured","reason":""}},"currency":{"state":"not-current","asOf":"2026-10-09","basis":{"asOf":"2026-10-24","newestObservationAt":"2026-10-09","newestObservationBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","ageDays":15,"expectedCadenceDays":1,"cadenceBasis":"the fastest cadence declared by a readable registered primary source (1 day)","graceMultiple":1,"wallMultiple":3,"blindSources":[],"retiredAt":null,"recordState":"measured"},"sentence":"This record is no longer current: nothing new has been observed since 2026-10-09, 15 days ago, against its daily cadence — more than 3 times its usual gap.","layers":{"primarySources":{"key":"primarySources","label":"issuing-authority documents","asOf":"2026-10-24","asOfBasis":"the newest date a read primary document speaks for (NWS active tropical-cyclone watches and warnings)","computedAt":"2026-10-24","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""},"reportingCounts":{"key":"reportingCounts","label":"count of reporting we hold","asOf":"2026-10-09","asOfBasis":"the newest day this record's counted documents carry (event-graph)","computedAt":"2026-10-24T23:28:52.671179+00:00","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":15,"state":"behind","reason":"its data runs to 2026-10-09 (computed 2026-10-24), 15 days before this record's 2026-10-24 build, against an expected cadence of 1 day"},"marketSensor":{"key":"marketSensor","label":"market sensor","asOf":"2026-09-04","asOfBasis":"the oldest price seen on a question still open by its own deadline: the layer is as current as its weakest open price","computedAt":"2026-10-24","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":50,"note":"6 of 6 open question(s) carry an older price; each row states its own priceSeenAt","state":"behind","reason":"its oldest open price was seen 2026-09-04, 50 days before this record's 2026-10-24 build, against an expected cadence of 1 day; its newest was seen 2026-10-12"},"corroboration":{"key":"corroboration","label":"corroboration pass","asOf":"2026-10-24","asOfBasis":"the end of the corroboration engine's document window","computedAt":"2026-10-24T19:48:21.447777Z","expectedCadenceDays":1,"gapDays":0,"state":"current","reason":""}},"weakestLayer":"marketSensor","stateBasis":"the worse of the record's own verdict (newest observation against its cadence, blind primary sources, retirement) and the weakest layer's state: a layer behind or undatable makes a current record not reliably current"},"scope":{"state":"measured","reason":null,"countsBasis":"event-graph","countsWindow":{"from":"2026-05-24","to":"2026-10-09","activeDays":7,"documents":1356,"outlets":383},"claimsWindow":{"from":"2026-10-18","to":"2026-10-24"},"coverageStart":{"state":"measured","date":"2026-05-24","basis":"first counted document (event-graph)","alternates":[{"date":"2026-07-16","basis":"registered in the publication registry"}],"reason":null},"retiredAt":null,"receipts":{"withReceipt":0,"total":0,"cannotMeasure":0},"claimTiers":[],"claimsShown":0,"claimsDropped":0,"claimsAtPublishedTiers":0,"publishedTiers":["strong","moderate"],"note":"This record's counts are the event-graph for this subject — 1356 document(s) over 7 active day(s) from 2026-05-24 to 2026-10-09; its 0 claim(s) come from the corroboration run covering 2026-10-18 to 2026-10-24 and include every agreement tier (0 of them at the published tiers strong, moderate), so a cumulative archive total published on another surface counts a different set over a different window and is not expected to match this one. Coverage of this subject begins 2026-05-24 — first counted document (event-graph); other structures date it 2026-07-16 (registered in the publication registry)."},"limits":[{"section":"ourAttention","state":"cannot-measure","reason":"no attention series carries this subject — the entity-trends shard does not index it, so our own attention is UNKNOWN, not zero"}],"verify":{"rest":"GET /api/truth/disaster-event-hurricane","mcp":"get_truth_record {\"slug\": \"disaster-event-hurricane\"}"},"claimsMeta":{"state":"no-cluster-joined","reason":"","dropped":0,"relevanceDropped":28,"relevanceUnmeasured":0,"questionExcluded":0,"cohesionExcluded":0,"note":"the corroboration engine joined 28 cluster(s) to this subject via document/entity match, but the subject-relevance gate found none evidenced as being about this subject (28 off-subject, 0 unjudgeable, 0 a question, not a claim): a reading, not a blind spot","fields":{"publisherCount":"Distinct publishers that carried the claim, after wire copies, republished copies and same-portal duplicates are collapsed.","originCount":"Separate origins after publishers behind one canonical address, and publishers relaying one named upstream, are collapsed into one (rule origins@2, which also counts a wire's own site and its tagged republications as that wire, and never counts an aggregator redirect that names no publisher). 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The tier and the state (corroborated 3+, reported-by-2, single-source 1, cannot-check when the count was not measured) are computed from it. Not dependency-aware evidentiary independence: an outlet that names no upstream still counts as its own origin.","originsUnknownUpstream":"How many counted origins had no readable text beyond a headline, so whether they relay someone else could not be checked.","originBasis":"The counting, in words, for this row.","deprecatedAliases":{"independentOrigins":"DEPRECATED alias of knownOriginCount, identical value: the separate origins whose upstream is known, the count the state stands on (null when not measured). Never larger than that count; before 2026-10-12 it carried the publisher count. Read knownOriginCount, publisherCount and originCount.","independentCount":"DEPRECATED alias of knownOriginCount, identical value (null when not measured) — not dependency-aware evidentiary independence. Read knownOriginCount and originCount.","independenceBasis":"DEPRECATED alias of originBasis, identical value.","independenceState":"DEPRECATED name for whether this row's counts were measured: measured or cannot-measure. originState says whether originCount was computed from origin chains."},"knownOriginCount":"Separate origins whose upstream is known: originCount minus originsUnknownUpstream. The state (corroborated 3+, reported-by-2, single-source 1, cannot-check when it was not measured) stands on this count; origins whose text could not be read are shown in originCount and never counted."}},"primaryDocumentsMeta":{"state":"measured","reason":"","shard":"web/signal-bureau/lib/hurricane_primary_sources.json","shardSha":"41827527b04af7ba","tripwire":null},"refereeGradesMeta":{"state":"never-published-on","reason":"","counts":{"published":0,"graded":0},"note":"the referee ledger was read end to end; the house has never published a probability on this subject"},"changeLog":[{"at":"2026-10-24","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-24","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-24","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-23","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-23","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-23","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-22","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-22","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-22","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-21","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-21","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-20","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-20","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-19","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-19","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-18","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-18","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-17","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-17","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-16","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-16","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-15","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-15","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-14","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-14","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-14","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-13","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-13","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-12","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-12","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-11","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-11","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-10","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-10","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-10","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-09","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-09","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-08","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-08","what":"sections changed"},{"at":"2026-10-07","what":"sections changed"}],"provenance":{"generatedAt":"2026-10-24T23:33:15.641441+00:00","asOf":"2026-10-24","windowStart":"2026-10-18","windowEnd":"2026-10-24","inputs":[{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/publication_state.json","generatedAt":"2026-10-24T23:28:52.671179+00:00","sha":"8f3469ed27a65a87"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/signal_bureau_snapshot.json","generatedAt":"2026-10-24T23:28:52.671179+00:00","sha":"b891a6fa1facc2b0"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/corpus_evidence.json","generatedAt":"2026-10-24T20:45:54.144557+00:00","sha":"2a942b4eea65375d"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/event_graph.json","generatedAt":null,"sha":"b87f7da87095af2d"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/event_market_receipts.json","generatedAt":"2026-10-24","sha":"beb2905c1528609d"},{"path":"web/signal-bureau/lib/entity_trends.json","generatedAt":null,"sha":"9ed03cb45c5d5311"},{"path":"cross_domain/analysis/whats_true_latest.json","generatedAt":"2026-10-24T19:48:21.447777Z","sha":null},{"path":"registry/truth_sources.yaml","generatedAt":null,"sha":"3439a8cab13733c0"},{"path":"cross_domain/predictions","generatedAt":null,"sha":"519d02fdac629a65"}],"recordVersion":"1d3c3778e96b9625"}},"responseLimits":{"responseBudgetBytes":262144,"pageBytes":131072,"doorEnvelopeReserveBytes":131072,"exhibitBudgetBytes":131072,"defaultPageBytes":32768,"defaultPageSize":25,"maxPageSize":100,"defaultShown":{"kernel":25,"frames":5,"retired":5},"statement":"No default response carries the whole consensus ledger. Each list (kernel, frames, retired) is folded to its count and a first page of at most kernel 25 headline rows, frames 5, retired 5, each at most 32 KiB; the rows shown are then measured so the exhibit stays within its 128 KiB share, and a topic-record response stays under 256 KiB. The other 128 KiB is reserved for the door's own fields (the maintained record, scope, pointers), which the fold does not measure (pass: door-envelope); each fold states its measured fit under layers.consensus.fold.fit. Unfold a list a page at a time: pageSize 1-100 (default 25), and a page also stops at 128 KiB of rows, returning a cursor for the rest. A page limit is a cursor, never an edge: follow nextCursor until it is null and you hold every row, in the ledger's own order."}}